London, January 17, 2026, 08:21 GMT — The market has closed.
Rio Tinto (RIO.L) shares fell 1.87% to 6,347 pence (£63.47) on Friday, retreating from Thursday’s 52-week high of 6,468 pence. During the day, the stock fluctuated between 6,287 and 6,405 pence.
Rio now finds itself caught between two powerful forces: volatile daily shifts in industrial metals and the looming uncertainty of a potential merger with Glencore. Both factors trace back to China, which stands as the major customer and possibly the chief regulator.
London’s market is closed this weekend, so the real test arrives Monday when trading resumes. Eyes will be on copper and iron ore prices, searching for clues about whether the Glencore deal moves forward or stalls.
Miners took a hit in London on Friday, dragged down by concerns over slumping copper demand in China. Rio dropped 1.8%, while Glencore slipped 2.5%, even though the FTSE 100 barely moved.
Whether Beijing would greenlight a mega-merger remains unclear. Analysts and lawyers told Reuters that a Rio-Glencore deal might hinge on asset sales to win Chinese approval. Concentration in copper production and marketing, along with iron ore marketing, could prove major hurdles. Glencore’s 2013 Xstrata merger offers a stark reminder of the challenges involved. “China will see this as an opportunity to squeeze out assets,” said Glyn Lawcock, an analyst at Barrenjoey in Sydney. Reuters
Some shareholders are growing wary about both price and timing. Mark Freeman, managing director of Australian Foundation Investment Company (AFIC), said Rio faces “a lot of questions” about how a deal would actually deliver value. He also cautioned that “a lot of M&A” — mergers and acquisitions — executed at market peaks haven’t stood the test of time. Reuters
Stepping away from M&A, Rio is doubling down on its core operations. The miner announced a partnership with BHP to produce up to 200 million metric tons of iron ore from neighboring Pilbara sites. Ore from BHP’s Yandi mine will be processed at Rio’s facilities. “Together we will extend the life of these operations, create additional value, and further support Western Australian jobs and local communities,” said Matthew Holcz, Rio’s iron ore chief executive. Reuters
Iron ore, the key ingredient for steel, also showed signs of weakness. Futures slipped on Friday, pressured by lofty prices and slim margins that put off buyers in China. Data from Mysteel revealed that imported ore inventories at major Chinese ports climbed for the eighth consecutive week, hitting a record 165.6 million tons.
Rio holders face a double threat: weaker Chinese demand for industrial metals paired with a deal process that could drag on, get complicated, or hinge on too many conditions. Forced divestments, political resistance, and poor timing could all sap momentum from what might otherwise be a headline-grabbing merger.
So far, the stock has stayed close to its recent peaks, but early next week’s direction will probably follow commodity prices and any new buzz around Glencore. Glencore’s share price has also served as a barometer for how investors are weighing the chances and structure of any deal.
Rio’s next major event is its 2025 fourth-quarter operations review set for Jan. 21. Investors will be watching closely for production figures, cost updates, and any news on strategic moves.
