London, January 20, 2026, 08:42 GMT — Regular session
- Shares of Rio Tinto dropped in early London trading as iron ore futures hit their lowest point in two weeks.
- BHP revealed it’s offering price concessions while hammering out a 2026 supply agreement with China’s state iron ore purchaser.
- Traders are watching Rio’s quarterly operations update this week closely, alongside the Feb. 5 deadline for Glencore to make or withdraw its offer.
Rio Tinto (RIO.L) shares slipped 0.8% to 6,287 pence by 0842 GMT, hitting a session low of 6,236 pence earlier. 1
The decline followed weaker iron ore prices, crucial for major miners. The most-active May contract in China closed Monday morning down 2.82% at 792 yuan a ton. On the Singapore Exchange, the benchmark February contract slipped 1.64% to $104.60 a ton, hitting a two-week low amid data pointing to persistent struggles in China’s property market. 2
Investors are keeping an eye on Rio’s looming deadline involving Glencore. The company must declare by 5 p.m. London time on Feb. 5 whether it plans to make a formal offer or walk away. That deadline could be pushed back, but only if the Takeover Panel agrees. 3
That combination — China’s demand cues on one hand, deal uncertainties on the other — is driving short-term swings in the stock. Iron ore still powers Rio’s cash flow, but a major corporate move would shift focus to balance sheet capacity, regulatory hurdles, and shareholder willingness.
A read-across from rival BHP is fueling caution. The company revealed it accepted lower prices on some iron ore sales amid ongoing talks for a 2026 supply deal with China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG). BHP warned these negotiations had “some impact to realised price” — meaning the average price it actually receives after discounts. RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker noted CMRG’s restrictions could “tighten spot market availability and support the headline index price,” even as miners grapple with steeper discounts. BHP shares dropped 2% in Australia. 4
For Rio, the challenge goes beyond the daily iron ore price swings. Contract terms, quality differentials, and cargo destinations all influence margins, with China remaining the key market that drives sentiment.
The Glencore story is generating its own paperwork. On Monday, Dimensional Fund Advisors filed an amended UK Takeover Code Form 8.3, revealing stakes in Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Ltd shares. The filing also reported a sale of 7,429 Rio Tinto ADRs at $83.59 each. Form 8.3 disclosures are mandatory during an “offer period” for investors with holdings of 1% or more, or those trading relevant securities. 5
The trade can shift quickly. Stronger iron ore prices—or an unexpected boost to China’s property sector—would ease the strain on miners. On the other hand, a sharper slowdown or tighter buyer conditions could hit them harder.
When it comes to the deal, investors are stuck with two stark choices: either a formal process that compels the market to factor in funding, synergies, and regulatory risks, or walking away entirely, which removes any chance of a takeover. Both scenarios have the potential to shift the stock—and neither offers a straightforward outcome.
Rio’s production update is on deck next. The company’s financial calendar pins its 2025 Q4 operations review for Jan. 21, with full-year results following on Feb. 19. Those dates will be key for volume, cost figures, and guidance ahead of the February takeover deadline. 6
