London, January 25, 2026, 08:20 GMT — The market has closed.
- After tumbling the previous day, Rio Tinto rebounded on Friday, climbing 1.39% to 6,576 pence
- Investors are eyeing the Feb. 5 deadline linked to potential talks with Glencore
- Full-year results set for Feb. 19 will put dividends, costs, and guidance under the microscope
Shares of Rio Tinto ended Friday at 6,576 pence, rising 1.39%. Investors are now focusing on upcoming takeover-code deadlines and the company’s next earnings report. 1
The timing is crucial as Rio is currently in an “offer period” under the UK Takeover Code regarding a potential deal with Glencore. This phase requires public disclosures and imposes a firm deadline for bidders to clarify their intentions. Rio must announce a definitive offer for Glencore by 5 p.m. London time on Feb. 5 or walk away—unless the Takeover Panel grants an extension. 2
The deadline falls right before Rio’s full-year 2025 results, due Feb. 19. Investors will be watching closely for news on cash returns, capital expenditure, and cost guidance. 3
After dropping 2.33% on Thursday, the stock bounced back Friday but remains near its recent high amid a volatile week for London mining shares. 1
Earlier this month, Glencore revealed it was holding preliminary talks with Rio about potentially merging parts or all of their businesses. The deal would take the form of an all-share merger, carried out through a scheme of arrangement—a UK court-approved method commonly used for major transactions. Glencore cautioned there was no guarantee the deal would go ahead. 4
Disclosure filings highlighted major shareholders again. A Form 8.3 dated Jan. 23 revealed BlackRock owns 8.39% of Rio Tinto plc’s stock and is also filing disclosures related to Glencore. 5
Erste Group has lifted Rio’s rating from “hold” to “buy.” Analyst Hans Engel highlighted expectations for a stronger sales boost in 2026, driven in part by copper output in Mongolia playing an “important contribution.” 6
Rio’s latest operational update this week revealed that fourth-quarter iron ore shipments and copper production surpassed expectations, providing investors with updated volume data ahead of the February earnings report. 7
The commodity scene is another factor in play. On Jan. 23, benchmark iron ore futures (62% fines) hovered near $106 a tonne, holding steady. Traders often treat that price as a quick gauge of steelmaking demand. 8
That said, the situation could shift quickly. Regulatory hurdles and shareholder resistance might stall a deal or even a plausible route to it. If a “no-offer” statement drops by Feb. 5, it could drain the takeover buzz that’s buoyed parts of the sector. On top of that, any drop in iron ore or copper prices would hit sentiment hard for a miner still tied closely to bulk commodities.
Monday’s session will focus on fresh statements or filings linked to the offer period, shifts in key metals prices, and signs ahead of the Feb. 5 deadline. Rio’s annual results, due Feb. 19, will follow closely. 2
