London, Jan 16, 2026, 07:55 GMT — Premarket
- On Thursday, Rio Tinto shares ended the day at 6,468 pence, rising 1.78%.
- Analysts suggest China might require asset divestitures to approve a Rio-Glencore merger.
- Rio has refocused on copper following a supply deal with Amazon and a fresh collaboration plan with BHP.
Rio Tinto plc shares (RIO.L) head into Friday’s London session with China casting a shadow over any potential deal with Glencore. Analysts warn Beijing might demand asset sales to greenlight a merger. Barrenjoey’s Glyn Lawcock suggested China could leverage the talks to “squeeze out assets,” pointing out the merged company would represent around 17% of global copper supply. Barclays, however, estimates the figure closer to 7.5%. 1
Rio closed Thursday at 6,468 pence, gaining 1.78%, after fluctuating between 6,262 and 6,468 pence. Roughly 6.6 million shares traded hands. The stock finished near the high of its recent range, limiting scope for fresh volatility when the market reopens. 2
Rio is pushing to prove it can expand copper output without waiting for a blockbuster deal. On Thursday, it announced a two-year pact to supply copper leached from an Arizona mine to Amazon for the tech giant’s AI data centers. Financial terms and volumes weren’t revealed. The supply will use Rio’s Nuton process, which employs bacteria to extract the metal. Analysts anticipate AI-driven demand will boost copper consumption by 50% by 2040, with benchmark prices holding above $13,000 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange. 3
Some shareholders remain wary about expanding scale at this stage of the cycle. Mark Freeman, managing director of Australian Foundation Investment Company, pointed out that Rio faces “a lot of questions” about how a Glencore deal would actually drive value. He cautioned that “M&A at the top of the market hasn’t created value” over the long term. Freeman also challenged Rio’s interest in copper-heavy assets, given prices are trading near record highs. 4
Rio and BHP signaled a cautious step forward in iron ore. The two miners inked non-binding memoranda to explore tapping up to 200 million tonnes from adjacent Yandicoogina and Yandi sites in the Pilbara. This includes work near Rio’s Wunbye deposit and processing BHP ore at Rio’s wet plants. Matthew Holcz, Rio’s iron ore chief exec, emphasized “minimal capital requirements,” while BHP’s Tim Day described it as “productivity in action.” They’re aiming for first ore early next decade, pending studies and approvals. 5
Deal chatter has triggered takeover-code filings. BlackRock revealed stakes in Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited under Rule 8.3, the UK Takeover Code requirement for disclosing holdings of 1% or more in relevant securities during an offer period. 6
The risk is clear-cut: regulators hold the power to alter the economics. Forced divestments would erode the strategic narrative pitched to shareholders, while political concerns often creep into approvals, especially with copper and iron ore critical to national supply chains.
Investors are also grappling with timing. Copper’s price already reflects scarcity. If supply constraints loosen or demand falters, the premium paid now risks turning into a call option that never pays off.
Traders on Friday will be scanning for any moves that narrow the chances of a formal proposal — whether a statement, a shareholder push, or another filing — just as closely as they watch the metal tape.
Rio is set to release its 2025 fourth-quarter operations review on Jan. 21. The miner will provide updates on production and shipments then. 7
For now, Rio’s share price will probably move around headline risk, keeping a close watch on the January 21 update.
