London, January 21, 2026, 09:12 GMT — Regular session
Rio Tinto plc shares rose 3.5% to 6,535 pence in early London trade on Wednesday, lifting the miner against a softer European tape after it reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter production across its key commodities. 1
The operational update matters because Rio’s iron ore business still pays most of the bills, and the market is quick to adjust dividend expectations when Pilbara volumes surprise. Copper is the other lever: investors want to see whether growth from Oyu Tolgoi and other projects can carry more of the story as iron ore prices swing.
Rio’s move stood out as the pan-European STOXX 600 slipped 0.1% in early trade, with trade tensions back in focus for risk assets ahead of fresh political remarks due later at the World Economic Forum in Davos. 2
In its production report, Rio said copper equivalent (CuEq) output — a way to convert different metals into a single copper-based measure — rose 8% in 2025, while shipments increased 5%. Chief executive Simon Trott said the miner was “making strong progress” on its plan to run a “stronger, sharper and simpler” company, as Pilbara posted record fourth-quarter production and shipments and the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea logged its first shipment in the quarter. 3
Rio shipped 91.3 million tonnes of iron ore from Pilbara in the fourth quarter, beating a Visible Alpha estimate of 88.2 million, while full-year shipments of 326.2 million tonnes came in near the lower end of its own forecast range, Reuters reported. Annual consolidated copper production rose 11% to 883,000 tonnes and fourth-quarter copper output hit 240,000 tonnes, helped by the ramp-up at Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi mine; investors are also weighing merger talks with Glencore, with a decision deadline on Feb. 5, the report added. 4
On the outlook, Rio expects 2026 iron ore shipments of 343 million to 366 million tonnes and copper production of 800,000 to 870,000 tonnes, alongside guidance ranges for other commodities including bauxite, alumina and aluminium, MarketScreener reported. 5
Miners have been trading on a mix of production updates and China-linked pricing signals. Rival BHP reported record first-half iron ore output this week but flagged price concessions tied to supply talks with China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) and lifted its cost estimate for Jansen Stage 1 potash; BHP plans half-year results on Feb. 17. 6
But production beats do not always travel cleanly into earnings. Iron ore pricing, unit costs and weather risk in Western Australia can still whipsaw margins, while any tie-up with Glencore would face regulatory scrutiny and could distract from cost cuts the market wants to see.
Next up, traders are looking to Rio’s 2025 full-year results and final dividend decision on Feb. 19, with the final dividend ex-dividend date for ordinary shares set for March 5 and payment due April 16, according to the company’s calendar filing. 7
