London, Jan 10, 2026, 08:01 (GMT) — Market closed
Rio Tinto Plc (RIO.L) shares dropped 3.04% on Friday after the miner revealed early talks with Glencore about a potential merger. The stock closed at 6,006 pence, trading in a range from 5,991p to 6,118p, setting the 6,000p level as a key point to watch when the London market opens. 1
The renewed talks have revived one of the market’s biggest “what-ifs,” and the clock is ticking: under UK takeover rules, Rio has until Feb. 5 to make a firm offer or publicly rule out a deal. Rio, the world’s largest iron ore miner, and Glencore combined would be worth nearly $207 billion by market value, surpassing BHP Group, Reuters reported. 2
Copper is driving much of the urgency. S&P Global said this week that copper demand is expected to jump 50% to 42 million metric tons by 2040. At the same time, without significant investment and more recycling, a supply shortfall could hit 10 million tons. Daniel Yergin, S&P Global’s vice chairman, warned copper might become “a bottleneck to growth and innovation” if supply can’t keep up. 3
Rio called the talks preliminary and said any agreement might cover “some or all” of Glencore’s assets. The plan currently points to an all-share merger—stock, not cash—structured through a UK court-approved “scheme of arrangement,” which requires shareholder approval and judicial sign-off. Rio also cautioned there’s no guarantee an offer will materialize or under what conditions. 4
Shareholders and analysts are already drawing red lines around price and coal. Hugh Dive, chief investment officer at Atlas Funds Management, said, “Investors are not happy with this,” pointing to the spotty track record of mega-mergers in the sector. RBC analyst Kaan Peker warned that China could pose antitrust hurdles, while others suggested Glencore’s coal assets would probably need addressing to gain wider support. 5
Friday highlighted that divide clearly. Glencore’s stock surged 9.6% in London, contrasting with a drop in Rio shares, while BHP edged up 0.8%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE 100 hit a record high amid a broader risk-on mood. 6
Investors got new legal updates from the U.S. The SEC dropped its lengthy civil lawsuit against former Rio Tinto CFO Guy Elliott, related to disclosures about Rio’s Mozambique coal assets, according to a court filing. 7
But nothing is settled yet. A setup that retains coal, moves it around, or separates the trading division could quickly alter the financial picture, while regulators will have time to scrutinize the details once the terms emerge.
Traders now turn their focus back to Rio, which will release its 2025 Q4 operations review on Jan. 21, ahead of the full-year earnings due Feb. 19. 8
