London, January 8, 2026, 08:42 (GMT) — Regular session
- Rio Tinto shares down 0.9% at 6,204p in early London trade
- S&P Global sees copper demand hitting 42 million tonnes a year by 2040
- Investors turn to Rio’s Jan. 21 production update for the next read on volumes and costs
Rio Tinto shares eased on Thursday, down 0.9% at 6,204 pence, after setting a 52-week high the previous day. The stock opened at 6,260p and has traded between 6,194p and 6,260p so far. 1
The timing matters because miners are being pulled in two directions: long-term copper demand looks stronger, but the near-term iron ore picture is still fragile. S&P Global said a surge in artificial intelligence and defence spending could lift copper demand 50% by 2040, taking annual demand to 42 million metric tons from 28 million in 2025, while supply could miss by more than 10 million tons a year without more recycling and new mines. Dan Yergin, S&P’s vice chairman, called electrification “the underlying demand factor”, and Carlos Pascual, an S&P vice president, said copper demand in defence was “inelastic.” 2
Rio’s move on Thursday follows a strong start to the week for big miners. The stock rose 3.28% on Tuesday to close at £62.91, a new 52-week high, outperforming the FTSE 100 on the day.
Deutsche Bank analyst Liam Fitzpatrick said the rally in industrial metals shares resembled the runs seen in 2016 and 2022, driven by supply disruption, the risk of U.S. tariffs, AI-related demand and money flowing into the sector. Deutsche lifted its 2026 copper estimate to about $12,000 a tonne and raised its iron ore and aluminium forecasts, while flagging that the speed of the rally was making some investors nervous. 3
Iron ore remains the bigger swing factor for Rio’s earnings, and that keeps China front and centre. Bernstein forecast iron ore prices would fall to $96 a tonne in 2026 as China’s steel production drops further, even as prices have hovered around $105 a tonne CFR — a delivered price that includes shipping — since September. It kept an Outperform rating on Rio and said consensus assumptions for Rio’s realised iron ore prices were already conservative at $80 a tonne FOB, or about $90 a tonne CFR. 4
More broadly, mining stocks in London have been volatile even as the main index has held up. The FTSE 350 mining index fell 2.4% on Wednesday, Reuters reported, underscoring how quickly sentiment can flip when commodity prices move. 5
But the trade can turn fast. A steeper drop in iron ore prices, or another leg down in Chinese steel demand, would weigh on Rio’s cash flow and dividend expectations, while higher copper prices can eventually draw in supply and cool the metal.
