Riot Platforms (RIOT) Stock Today: November Bitcoin Output, AI Data Center Pivot and Wall Street Forecasts

Published: December 6, 2025 – Information only, not investment advice.

Riot Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: RIOT) has just wrapped up one of its most important reporting windows of the year: record third‑quarter earnings, a fresh November production update, and a wave of new analyst research focused on its evolving identity as both a Bitcoin miner and an AI‑era data center operator.

Here’s a detailed look at the latest news, forecasts and analyses on Riot Platforms stock as of December 6, 2025.

RIOT stock price and recent performance

As of the close on Friday, December 5, 2025, Riot Platforms stock finished at $14.94, down 4.17% on the day. ^[1]

Over the first week of December (December 1–5), RIOT slipped from about $15.48 to $14.94, a decline of roughly 3.5%, mirroring broader pressure on crypto‑linked names after Bitcoin pulled back from recent highs. ^[2]

Key snapshot metrics:

Market cap: about $5.6 billion
Revenue (trailing 12 months): ≈ $637 million
Net income (ttm): ≈ $164 million
EPS (ttm):$0.40
P/E (ttm): ~37x
52‑week range:$6.19 – $23.94
Beta: ~3.85, underscoring high volatility. ^[3]

At the current price, RIOT trades about 38% below its 52‑week high and at more than double its 52‑week low, highlighting how sharply sentiment on the stock can swing with Bitcoin and growth expectations.

Latest operational news: November 2025 Bitcoin production

On December 4, 2025, Riot released its November 2025 production and operations update, the most recent fundamental data point for investors. ^[4]

Headline numbers for November:

Bitcoin produced:428 BTC
- Down 2% month‑over‑month vs. 437 BTC in October
- Down 14% year‑over‑year vs. 495 BTC in November 2024 ^[5]
Average BTC produced per day:14.3 BTC (slightly above October’s 14.1 BTC) ^[6]
Bitcoin held:19,368 BTC, including 3,977 BTC classified as restricted holdings ^[7]
Bitcoin sold in November:383 BTC
- Net proceeds:$37.0 million
- Average net price per BTC sold:$96,560 ^[8]
Deployed hash rate (total):36.6 EH/s (unchanged month‑over‑month, up ~19% year‑over‑year) ^[9]
Average operating hash rate:34.6 EH/s, up 4% vs. October ^[10]
Total power credits (curtailment + demand response):$2.3 million, up 6% vs. October and 76% vs. November 2024 ^[11]
All‑in power cost: about 4.0¢/kWh, roughly flat year‑over‑year ^[12]

Short‑term reaction from news outlets was measured. Several brief notes highlighted that Riot’s Bitcoin production slipped modestly month‑over‑month and 14% year‑over‑year, while shares traded slightly lower in pre‑market trading the day of the release. ^[13]

Why it matters:

The small production decline reflects tougher network conditions and some power optimization rather than a structural setback; hash rate and fleet efficiency remain strong.
Growing power credits and stable low power costs underline one of Riot’s core competitive advantages: access to inexpensive, flexible power contracts in Texas and Kentucky. ^[14]
The near‑steady Bitcoin balance (19k+ coins) provides a sizable on‑balance‑sheet treasury that can amplify results when Bitcoin rallies—but also adds exposure to crypto price volatility.

Third‑quarter 2025: record earnings and the AI/HPC pivot

Riot’s current narrative really shifted with its Q3 2025 earnings report on October 30, 2025, which delivered record results and formally pushed the company deeper into data‑center infrastructure. ^[15]

Key Q3 2025 metrics (three months ended September 30, 2025):

Total revenue:$180.2 million, up from $84.8 million in Q3 2024
Bitcoin Mining revenue:$160.8 million, vs. $67.5 million a year earlier
Bitcoin mined:1,406 BTC, up from 1,104 BTC in Q3 2024 ^[16]
Average cost to mine one BTC (excluding depreciation):$46,324, higher than a year ago as network hash rate rose, partly offset by much larger power credits ^[17]
Engineering revenue (ESS Metron and related operations):$19.1 million, vs. $12.6 million a year earlier ^[18]
Net income:$104.5 million (or $0.26 diluted EPS) vs. a net loss of $154.4 million in Q3 2024
Adjusted EBITDA:$197.2 million, boosted by gains on Bitcoin holdings ^[19]
Liquidity and BTC holdings:
- About $330.7 million in unrestricted cash
- $75.6 million in restricted cash
- 19,287 BTC (3,300 subject to collateral), valued at roughly $2.2 billion at quarter‑end Bitcoin prices ^[20]

Strategically, the big news was Riot’s plan to initiate 112 MW of core and shell development at its Corsicana data center campus in Texas, a key step in its transition from pure Bitcoin mining to a multi‑faceted data center operator serving high‑density computing workloads, including AI and high‑performance computing (HPC). ^[21]

Research from Visible Alpha (via S&P Global Market Intelligence) underscores how powerful this combination of Bitcoin mining and AI‑ready infrastructure could be:

2025 revenue is forecast to rise ~76% to $662 million, driven largely by an 84% jump in Bitcoin mining revenue to about $590 million, with estimated output of 5,612 BTC and an average BTC price around $104,869. ^[22]
Riot’s year‑end hash rate is projected at roughly 39 EH/s, equating to about 4% of the global Bitcoin network hash rate—a very large share in an industry where even 1% is meaningful. ^[23]

In short, Riot is using a Bitcoin windfall to help fund a multi‑gigawatt data‑center build‑out, aiming to become a landlord of choice for AI and cloud workloads that need lots of power in favorable jurisdictions. ^[24]

Analyst sentiment: from “Moderate Buy” to “Strong Buy”

Analysts have been particularly active on RIOT in the weeks around Q3 earnings and the November production update.

Street‑level ratings and targets

Two key consensus snapshots:

MarketBeat (18 analysts):
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy (17 Buy, 1 Hold)
- Average 12‑month price target:$24.16
- Target range:$17 – $30
- Implied upside vs. $14.94: about 61.7%. ^[25]
StockAnalysis (12 analysts):
- Consensus rating: Strong Buy
- Average price target:$26.21
- Target range:$17 – $42
- Implied upside: about 75% from current levels. ^[26]

In practical terms, Wall Street broadly agrees that RIOT is a high‑risk, high‑beta name with meaningful upside, though price targets vary widely depending on Bitcoin assumptions and how quickly the AI/HPC data‑center business ramps.

Recent individual analyst moves

Several brokerages have updated their views since Q3:

Cantor Fitzgerald – Maintained “Overweight” rating, trimming its price target from $26 to $25 on November 5, 2025, citing slightly lower Bitcoin production and a lack of fresh details on AI/HPC in the Q3 release, but remaining positive on the long‑term story. ^[27]
Needham – Reiterated “Buy”, raising its target from $19 to $28 around the Q3 report, pointing to stronger‑than‑expected earnings and data‑center expansion plans. ^[28]
Bernstein – Boosted its target from $19 to $25 while maintaining an “Outperform” rating, highlighting Riot’s scale and power footprint. ^[29]
Piper Sandler – Set a $26 price target in late October as part of a broader bullish stance on Riot’s ability to monetize its energy assets through both Bitcoin and compute‑heavy workloads. ^[30]
Citizens (Greg Miller) – Initiated/maintained a positive “Market Outperform”‑style view with a $25 target in mid‑November, leaning into the AI/HPC opportunity. ^[31]
J.P. Morgan (Reginald Smith) – Set a $20 target in late November, reflecting a more conservative stance on Bitcoin and execution risk but still above current levels. ^[32]

Some rating compilers also note that Cantor’s target implies roughly 30–35% upside from prices around mid‑November, illustrating that even the more cautious bullish calls leave room for appreciation. ^[33]

How analysts and commentators frame the bull case

Beyond raw numbers, a series of recent analyses attempt to explain why RIOT might be undervalued—or overpriced—at current levels.

1. Power assets and “dollars per watt”

A widely circulated bull thesis (originally posted on ValueInvestorsClub and summarized by outlets like Yahoo Finance and Insider Monkey) argues that, after backing out its Bitcoin holdings, Riot trades at a deep discount to peers on a “price per watt” basis:

Adjusted for its Bitcoin balance, Riot is estimated to trade around $2.57 per watt of power capacity versus an industry peer average of roughly $8.58 per watt, positioning it as one of the cheaper large‑scale miners/power‑centric plays on this metric. ^[34]

That thesis also emphasises:

Riot’s large, low‑cost power footprint in Texas
The option value embedded in its AI/HPC‑ready Corsicana campus
A view that the first major HPC lease, expected by early 2026, could trigger a re‑rating if it validates Riot’s “compute landlord” model. ^[35]

2. “Transformation story” and valuation tension

Simply Wall St’s narrative‑driven valuation work (republished via brokers like Webull and Sahm Capital) highlights both upside and risk: ^[36]

Over the 90 days leading into early November, RIOT delivered a ~73% share‑price return, and total shareholder return of about 109% over the past year, as investors warmed to its transformation from a pure Bitcoin miner to a broader digital‑infrastructure player.
Their fair‑value estimate of ~$22.47 suggested RIOT was about 12% undervalued at a then‑price near $19.78—an even larger discount relative to today’s sub‑$15 level, assuming fundamentals haven’t deteriorated.
However, they note that RIOT’s P/E around 44–45x at that time was well above both US software sector averages and some peer groups, flagging significant valuation risk if growth or Bitcoin prices disappoint.

In short, these models often show fundamental upside, but only if Riot executes on AI/HPC leasing and Bitcoin economics stay supportive.

3. Hedge‑fund and “smart money” interest

An Insider Monkey write‑up in early December summarised the VIC bull case and highlighted that 48 hedge funds held RIOT at the end of the second quarter, up from 35 in the prior quarter. ^[37]

The note characterizes RIOT as a “low downside, high optionality” play: downside is partially cushioned by power assets and Bitcoin holdings, while upside is linked to AI/HPC leasing, Bitcoin upside, and power scarcity dynamics. ^[38]

Activist pressure and board shake‑up

2025 has also seen activist investors pushing Riot toward AI/HPC monetization:

In January 2025, it emerged that D.E. Shaw had taken a stake in Riot and might seek strategic changes, following Starboard Value’s earlier involvement pressing the company to explore AI uses for its excess power. ^[39]
By February 2025, Riot had appointed three new directors—Jaime Leverton, Doug Mouton and Michael Turner—who bring deep experience in converting Bitcoin mining infrastructure for AI and HPC. The company also hired Evercore and Northland Capital to help evaluate these opportunities. ^[40]

This activist‑backed governance shift aligns tightly with the company’s subsequent moves at Corsicana and the narrative emphasized by research houses: Riot is no longer just a miner; it’s trying to become a specialised power and compute‑infrastructure platform.

Macro backdrop: Bitcoin volatility still rules the day

Despite the AI angle, RIOT remains highly sensitive to Bitcoin.

Earlier this week and late last week:

Bitcoin briefly fell below ~$85,000, down roughly one‑third from an October peak above $126,000, triggering a broad sell‑off in crypto‑linked shares, including miners and companies holding large Bitcoin treasuries. ^[41]
Market coverage from outlets like Investopedia and CoinDesk noted that crypto‑related stocks slid as Bitcoin retreated toward the mid‑$80,000s, with risk‑off sentiment hitting both big tech and digital‑asset names. ^[42]

Price history data show RIOT dropped about 4% on December 1 and remained choppy throughout the week, tracking the Bitcoin pullback closely. ^[43]

For investors, the takeaway is straightforward: however compelling the AI/HPC story may be, RIOT’s near‑term earnings and daily price action still hinge heavily on Bitcoin’s direction.

Risks highlighted in filings and research

Riot’s own SEC filings and several independent analyses flag a series of risks that could challenge the bullish narrative:

Bitcoin dependence & network difficulty:
- Riot’s Q3 10‑Q reiterates that revenues remain highly sensitive to Bitcoin prices, block rewards and network difficulty—factors largely outside the company’s control. ^[44]
Execution risk in AI/HPC:
- Visible Alpha and third‑party narratives stress that the Corsicana AI/HPC strategy only pays off if Riot can secure large, creditworthy tenants at attractive long‑term rates. Uncertainty on timing and pricing for those leases is a key overhang. ^[45]
Valuation risk:
- Some models show RIOT trading at elevated earnings multiples relative to peers, meaning that disappointments in Bitcoin price, hash rate growth, or HPC leasing could drive a sharp de‑rating. ^[46]
Legal and regulatory matters:
- The company’s September 30, 2025 10‑Q notes ongoing legal proceedings, including a fifth amended complaint filed by GMO in August 2025, with Riot filing a motion to dismiss in late September. Outcomes remain uncertain. ^[47]
- Broader US and global crypto regulation—particularly around mining, stablecoins and digital‑asset market structure—remains in flux, and Riot itself points to regulatory shifts as a major risk factor. ^[48]

What all this means for Riot Platforms stock right now

Putting it all together as of December 6, 2025:

Fundamentals have improved dramatically versus 2024: revenue and profitability are up sharply, and Q3 delivered record numbers backed by both higher Bitcoin prices and increased production. ^[49]
Riot continues to grow its hash rate and Bitcoin holdings while keeping power costs competitive and extracting value from curtailment and demand‑response programs. ^[50]
The company is pivoting toward AI and HPC data centers, with 112 MW under development at Corsicana and a long‑term multi‑gigawatt roadmap that could significantly diversify revenue. ^[51]
Wall Street is broadly bullish, with consensus targets clustered in the mid‑$20s—roughly 60–75% above the current share price—though these targets assume continued strength in Bitcoin and progress on AI/HPC leasing. ^[52]
Independent analyses and hedge‑fund theses frame RIOT as a leveraged bet on digital infrastructure and power scarcity, not just Bitcoin—but they are also clear that volatility, regulatory risk and execution missteps could still produce significant downside. ^[53]

For prospective or current investors, RIOT at today’s price sits at the intersection of:

Crypto beta (via Bitcoin mining and treasury holdings), and
Infrastructure growth (via AI/HPC‑ready power and data‑center capacity).

That combination explains why price targets are high—and why the stock remains one of the more volatile names on the NASDAQ.

Before making any decision, it’s important to:

Revisit your risk tolerance,
Consider how much Bitcoin exposure you already have, and
Read Riot’s latest 10‑Q, production updates and independent research in full.

This article is for informational purposes only, does not constitute financial or investment advice, and does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs.