New York, January 14, 2026, 10:26 EST
- Robert Half shares traded higher in morning New York dealings after a volatile start to the week.
- A new Robert Half survey in Australia pointed to stubborn hiring friction heading into 2026.
- Fresh investor commentary is split between a “cycle turn” thesis and worries about weak fundamentals.
Robert Half (RHI) shares rose about 3% to $28.70 in morning trading on Wednesday, drawing fresh attention after a Seeking Alpha column pitched the staffing firm as an “underpriced cyclical recovery play.” The author put a fair value of $49 a share on a discounted cash-flow model — a method that estimates future cash and discounts it back to today — and argued the consulting arm, Protiviti, is helping cushion a soft staffing market. (Seeking Alpha)
The timing matters because staffing names tend to move early in the hiring cycle, and investors are hunting for signs the slowdown is finally easing. Robert Half has taken the hit since the post-pandemic boom cooled, leaving the stock priced like a company stuck in low gear.
Early 2026 has turned into a tug-of-war narrative. Some see lower rates and a steadier corporate spending backdrop as a setup for a staffing rebound; others see a market that is still hesitant to hire, especially for full-time roles.
In Australia, Robert Half said a survey of 500 employers found 88% had a candidate decline a job offer over the past year and 97% expected at least one recruitment hurdle in 2026. The top concern was a lack of skilled applicants (61%), while employers also flagged competing offers and salary expectations (both 58%) — and said rejected offers were often tied to a better deal elsewhere (32%) or pay that was not competitive (31%). “Hiring remains complex,” Nicole Gorton, a director at Robert Half, said, adding that “friction is increasing, not easing.” (Robert Half)
For recruiters, that mix can cut both ways. More churn can create work, but a higher rate of declined offers can stretch the time it takes to close a role and leave clients second-guessing whether to hire at all.
The bullish case rests on a simple bet: the cycle turns, and staffing volumes recover, while consulting helps keep earnings from falling apart in the meantime. The Seeking Alpha column also pointed to “reshoring” — moving production and supply chains closer to home — as a longer-running tailwind for staffing demand.
A more cautious view has also been in circulation. A separate Seeking Alpha note last week said recent macro and company-level indicators still pointed to “continued headwinds” and argued investors may have to wait longer for a clear turnaround in Robert Half’s business. (Seeking Alpha)
Simply Wall St, looking at profitability rather than the cycle, warned that returns on capital were slipping. It calculated Robert Half’s return on capital employed (ROCE) — a measure of how much operating profit a firm generates from the capital it uses — at about 8% on a trailing basis to September 2025, below a professional services industry average it put at 16%. (Simply Wall St)
But the downside scenario is not subtle. If employers keep freezing hires or stretching decision times, staffing volumes can stay weak and pricing power can thin out, even as costs rise. Competition is also relentless in this business, with peers such as ManpowerGroup and Korn Ferry exposed to the same stop-start hiring budgets.
The stock’s recent tape has been jumpy: after a drop of more than 4% on Tuesday, the shares clawed back ground on Wednesday. (Investing)
