NEW YORK, January 13, 2026, 12:54 EST — Regular session
- Rocket Lab shares hovered near $88 during midday trading, showing little movement.
- Baird raised its target price to $100 and advised investors to “stay long.”
- Attention centers on execution risk tied to major U.S. defense satellite contracts and the upcoming earnings report.
Rocket Lab shares edged up 0.1% to $87.98 by midday Tuesday, following Baird analyst Peter Arment’s upgrade of the price target to $100. He advised clients to “stay long RKLB,” according to StreetInsider. The stock fluctuated between $85.66 and $89.65 on volume of roughly 12 million shares, as the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.1%.
This call is crucial as Rocket Lab aims to shed its image as merely a small-launch player with uneven revenue. Investors are now focused on whether its space-systems business can deliver consistent production and more reliable cash flow.
Baird bumped its target to $100 from $83 and maintained an “Outperform” rating — Wall Street’s way of saying it expects the stock to outpace peers. The firm noted the recent missile-tracking satellite contract could boost revenue from 2026 to 2030. According to InvestingPro data referenced by Investing.com, Rocket Lab’s revenue jumped 52.42% over the past year, though the company still posts a negative EBITDA of $192.24 million. The note also highlighted that the stock trades above its estimated “fair value” and carries a steep price-to-book ratio of 36.12.
On Dec. 19, Rocket Lab announced it secured an $816 million prime contract from the U.S. Space Development Agency to develop 18 satellites for Tracking Layer Tranche 3 within the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture, a planned low Earth orbit satellite network. The deal features an $806 million base contract plus up to $10.45 million in options. Rocket Lab also indicated that additional subsystem work could push the total value to around $1 billion. “Rocket Lab is honored to play a role in enabling this,” said founder and CEO Peter Beck. 1
The agency named Lockheed Martin, Rocket Lab, Northrop Grumman, and L3Harris to deliver and operate 18 spacecraft apiece under this tranche. This is part of roughly $3.5 billion in contracts for 72 satellites planned to launch in fiscal 2029. SDA acting director Gurpartap “GP” Sandhoo said the network will “increase the coverage and accuracy needed to close kill chains” against advanced threats.
Rocket Lab’s contracts shift the focus squarely onto its manufacturing pace and supply chain management, rather than the upcoming Electron launch. Investors are wagering the company can ramp up satellite production without sacrificing quality or timing.
The analyst tone has changed alongside the stock’s rally: upgrades now come bundled with valuation warnings, not just growth projections. This dual effect means a well-known price target boost might fuel further momentum, but it also increases expectations for performance.
Defense contracts stretch over years and hinge on hitting key milestones, making delays a frequent issue in government projects. A missed deadline, surprise cost hikes, or a bungled launch that dents trust could weigh heavily on a stock already banking on positive outcomes.
All eyes are on Rocket Lab’s upcoming quarterly report, slated for Feb. 26 after the market closes, according to MarketBeat’s earnings calendar—though the company hasn’t officially confirmed the date. Investors want updates on progress with the Tracking Layer contracts and hope to see margins strengthen as the backlog starts turning into revenue.
