NEW YORK, Jan 16, 2026, 11:48 EST
- Morgan Stanley boosted Rocket Lab to “overweight,” raising the price target sharply from $67 to $105
- KeyBanc cut the shares to “sector weight,” saying recent catalysts have already been priced in
- All eyes are on Neutron’s inaugural flight and whether it can sustain its contract momentum
Rocket Lab shares jumped on Friday following a Morgan Stanley upgrade that also boosted the price target. The move adds fuel to what’s already been one of the market’s more volatile momentum plays. 1
The upgrade came after the stock had already surged over the past year, even as some on Wall Street took a more cautious view. “What more do you want?” KeyBanc analysts led by Michael Leshock questioned this week when they downgraded Rocket Lab to “sector weight,” a neutral rating that basically means “hold.” 2
Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag took a more optimistic view, dubbing 2025 “a banner year” for the space sector. She expects 2026 to gain momentum from increased launch activity, fresh product launches, supportive policies, and a maturing market. The bank upgraded Rocket Lab and Canada’s MDA to overweight, downgraded Iridium, and lifted Rocket Lab’s price target sharply from $67 to $105. 3
Rocket Lab builds the Electron rocket for small-satellite launches and is working on the Neutron, a bigger vehicle that investors and analysts see as a potential game-changer. Seeking Alpha contributor Yiannis Zourmpanos, in a separate piece published Thursday, projects the company could hit around $900 million in revenue by 2026 as its defense and space-systems backlog starts converting. He also noted that a successful Neutron first flight in 2026 would unlock larger missions and more lucrative contracts. 4
Shares jumped roughly 6% to $96 in late morning trading, lifting Rocket Lab’s market cap to about $48 billion. This data was cited in a Motley Fool column covering the stock’s sharp rise. 5
KeyBanc’s downgrade, sparked by market buzz and trading talk on Thursday, focused on valuation concerns. According to a Benzinga report, the bank stated Rocket Lab’s recent rally had “fully priced” in multiple catalysts already, highlighting uncertainty over Neutron’s launch timeline as the primary short-term issue. 6
Some traders have approached the stock less as an aerospace player and more like a chart-driven story. Investors Business Daily pointed to Rocket Lab as a recent case for its “Ants” indicator — a momentum tool designed to detect early institutional buying by tracking multiple up-days with strong volume over about three weeks — highlighting the stock in October ahead of another sharp jump. 7
The narratives clash sharply and don’t easily line up. Bulls highlight a launch company diving further into national security contracts and satellite tech, seeing Neutron as the growth path. Bears, on the other hand, argue the stock has already run too far ahead of what the company has shown it can scale.
The downside doesn’t have to be dramatic. A delay in the Neutron timeline, a botched test, or slower contract-to-revenue conversion could shift “fast-growing” to “still waiting.” And high-multiple stocks usually don’t forgive that kind of stall.
Rocket Lab finds itself in a tricky spot of the rally—where upgrades can still shift the price, downgrades still pack a punch, and the next meaningful data is expected from engineering progress rather than financials.
