NEW YORK, Jan 20, 2026, 07:14 (EST)
- Rocket Lab shares dipped in premarket trading, pulling back from their near-record close in the previous session.
- Morgan Stanley raised its Rocket Lab price target to $105, sparking a rally that’s also boosted other space stocks.
- Yahoo Finance’s valuation model put “fair value” near $98, implying much of the easy upside might already be priced in.
Shares of Rocket Lab dipped in premarket trading Tuesday, erasing part of their recent rally. Wall Street’s upbeat forecasts are running into valuation numbers that leave scant margin for mistakes.
This matters since Rocket Lab, once a niche space-launch story, is now valued more like a broad defense-and-space platform. With the stock hovering near its highs, even minor shifts in targets and assumptions can sway both the narrative and the price.
The immediate question: is this rally fueled by new info, or just momentum feeding itself? Investors have rapidly lumped Rocket Lab into a wider bet on space and defense growth, where upgrades often trigger sudden, crowded surges.
Rocket Lab slipped to $93.04 in premarket action, shedding 3.4% from its last close at $96.30. Over the past 12 months, the stock has swung wildly, ranging from a low of $14.72 to a high near $99.58. That volatility underscores the challenge of pinning down a conventional valuation. 1
Morgan Stanley sparked the latest surge by upgrading Rocket Lab to “overweight” and lifting its price target sharply from $67 to $105—a rare show of confidence in the stock from the bank. (For context, “overweight” means the analyst expects this stock to outperform others in their coverage.) According to TheStreet, that $105 target suggested about a 10% gain from the shares’ trading levels at the time. 2
Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag highlighted Rocket Lab’s rising profile as a “strategically-important, multi-faceted space company with credible long-term growth optionality,” according to TipRanks. Liwag pointed to robust demand from both commercial and government sectors, citing Rocket Lab’s $816 million satellite contract from the Space Development Agency as evidence it can compete with larger defense firms. TipRanks also noted this momentum could benefit other space-related stocks, such as AST SpaceMobile and Intuitive Machines. 3
Yahoo Finance ran a separate valuation check that landed on a less striking figure: KiwiInvest’s “narrative fair value,” which relies on a model rather than market pricing, pegged Rocket Lab around $98 a share. That’s just a bit above its last close at $96.30. Viewed this way, Rocket Lab appears only marginally undervalued, with the gap narrowing after its recent rally. 4
The stock’s recent surge sheds light on the heated debate. Rocket Lab has climbed 36.56% in the last month and soared 301.25% over the past year, per MarketBeat, tightening tolerance for any weak news and raising the bar beyond just “okay” earnings. 5
Rocket Lab offers launch services and space systems, aiming to move beyond its smaller Electron rocket to tackle bigger missions. The bullish outlook depends on scaling up—more launches, additional satellites, and steady recurring business. If that plays out, the company shifts from a speculative launch play to a more established industrial contractor with significant growth potential.
The risks are clear. Any missteps in execution—be it delays in launch schedules, setbacks in new vehicle development, or hiccups in delivering key government contracts—could hit hard, especially with stock prices banking on steady progress. Competition isn’t just hypothetical either; SpaceX leads U.S. orbital launches, while a swarm of smaller players jostle for the remaining market share.
Rocket Lab remains caught between “big story” and “big numbers.” Morgan Stanley’s target gives the stock a boost, but the valuation signals that fresh wins — not just louder narratives — will be necessary to push the price higher.
