Roku Stock Jumps on Fresh Analyst Upgrades: Is NASDAQ:ROKU Setting Up for a 2026 Breakout?

Roku, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROKU) is back on center stage. On Thursday, December 11, 2025, the streaming platform’s stock is trading around the $109–110 mark, up strongly on the day and hovering near the top of its 52‑week range of roughly $52 to $117. ^[1]

A wave of new analyst calls, upbeat earnings trends, and a clearer path to profitable growth are now reshaping how Wall Street looks at Roku stock going into 2026.

Roku Stock Today: Price, Momentum and Market Context

Across major data providers, Roku’s share price sits in the low $100s, with today’s session pushing it close to the high end of its one‑year range between about $52 and $116.66. ^[2] Over the past 12 months, the stock has gained more than 30%, far outpacing broad market benchmarks and recovering from a bruising post‑pandemic comedown. ^[3]

Momentum indicators are confirming that shift. Investor’s Business Daily recently highlighted Roku Class A shares for improving price leadership: the stock’s Relative Strength (RS) rating has pushed above 80 — a level typically reserved for early-stage market leaders — after breaking out from a consolidation pattern. ^[4]

In short: Roku is no longer trading like a distressed pandemic winner. It’s acting like a growth stock again — and analysts are leaning into that narrative.

The Big Story on December 11: Jefferies and Wedbush Turn More Bullish

Jefferies: “One of the cleanest revision stories” heading into 2026

The headline move today comes from Jefferies. The firm upgraded Roku from Hold to Buy and lifted its price target from $100 to $135, implying solid upside from current levels. ^[5]

Jefferies’ thesis rests on three main pillars:

Platform revenue surprise potential
- Wall Street currently models Roku’s 2026 platform revenue growth at about 15% year over year.
- Jefferies argues that’s too conservative and sees a realistic path to 16% growth, with an upside case above 20% as demand strengthens from demand‑side platforms like Amazon and The Trade Desk, the political advertising cycle returns, and subscription momentum improves. ^[6]
Earnings power and operating leverage
- Jefferies now forecasts 2026 EBITDA of roughly $610 million, rising to about $845 million in 2027, both ahead of current Street expectations. ^[7]
- The firm expects platform gross margins to hold in the 51–52% range, while Roku maintains an operating expense base of roughly $2 billion, which it believes is enough to support multiple years of double‑digit revenue growth without another big spending boom. ^[8]
Valuation reset with improving fundamentals
- Jefferies values Roku at 22x 2027 EBITDA to reach its $135 target, describing the stock as “one of the cleanest revision stories in internet heading into 2026.” ^[9]

In plain English: Jefferies is betting Roku will beat both revenue and earnings expectations over the next two years, and that the current valuation still leaves room for upside if that happens.

Wedbush: Price target raised to $130, Outperform reiterated

Joining the bullish chorus, Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese raised Roku’s price target from $115 to $130 today while maintaining an Outperform rating. ^[10]

Wedbush’s note fits into a broader pattern:

Recent positive moves include:
- Guggenheim lifting its target from $110 to $115 and keeping a Buy rating. ^[11]
- Piper Sandler upgrading Roku to Overweight with a $135 target in early November, citing improving platform momentum. ^[12]
- Citizens reiterating a Market Outperform rating with a $145 price target, one of the highest on the Street. ^[13]

The common theme across these calls is that Roku’s advertising and platform business — not just its hardware devices — is driving a more durable and profitable growth story.

What the Latest Earnings Tell Us: Q3 2025 by the Numbers

Roku’s recent fundamentals go a long way toward explaining the analyst enthusiasm.

For the third quarter of 2025, Roku reported: ^[14]

Total net revenue: $1.21 billion, up 14% year over year
Platform revenue: about $1.06 billion, up roughly 17% YoY
Devices revenue: around $146 million, slightly down versus the prior year
Gross profit: ~$525 million, driven largely by the higher‑margin platform segment
Operating income: turned positive at about $9.5 million, versus a loss a year ago
Net income: $24.8 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, compared with a loss in the prior year and well above consensus, which was expecting roughly $0.07

On a non‑GAAP basis, Roku generated Adjusted EBITDA of about $117 million in Q3, and trailing 12‑month free cash flow of approximately $443 million, marking a sharp turnaround from earlier loss‑making years. ^[15]

This isn’t just “growth at all costs” anymore. Roku is finally demonstrating that its scale in streaming can translate into durable profitability.

Guidance: Management Is Signaling More Growth and More Profit in 2026

In its Q3 2025 shareholder letter, Roku raised its full‑year outlook and provided more detail on the path ahead: ^[16]

Q4 2025 guidance
- Total net revenue of about $1.35 billion, up ~12% YoY
- Platform revenue growth of around 15% YoY, with platform gross margin near 52%
- Adjusted EBITDA of roughly $145 million in Q4
Full‑year 2025 outlook
- Platform revenue of about $4.11 billion, implying nearly 17% growth and high‑50s percentage of total revenue
- Adjusted EBITDA of roughly $395 million
- Management explicitly states it sees “significant opportunity to drive double‑digit growth in Platform revenue in 2026 and beyond while increasing profitability.”

These internal targets dovetail neatly with Jefferies’ and other analysts’ view that Roku is entering a period where revenue can keep compounding while margins expand, as ad monetization improves and operating costs grow more slowly.

Wall Street’s Roku Stock Forecast: Targets, Ratings and 2026 Expectations

The December 11 upgrades land on top of an already constructive analyst backdrop.

Price targets and ratings

Across multiple data providers:

TickerNerd tracks 43 Wall Street analysts with a median 12‑month price target of $115, in a range from about $73 to $145. Its composite rating classifies Roku as a Buy, with a score of 7.8/10. ^[17]
StockAnalysis currently shows an average price target of around $113–114, implying mid‑single‑digit upside from recent trading levels, and a consensus rating of Buy. ^[18]
Public.com reports a very similar consensus target (around $114), with roughly three‑quarters of analyst ratings in the Buy or Strong Buy camp. ^[19]
MarketBeat summarises the view from 27 brokerages as a “Moderate Buy”: about 2 Sell, 6 Hold, 17 Buy and 2 Strong Buy ratings, with an average price target slightly above $111. ^[20]

Pulling this together, Roku stock sits in the unusual spot where:

The near‑term consensus is modest (high‑single‑digit upside over 12 months),
But bullish outliers (Jefferies, Citizens, Piper Sandler) still see 20–30%+ upside if the company delivers on its revised growth and margin targets.

2026 revenue and earnings expectations

Looking beyond the next four quarters, analysts increasingly agree on one thing: Roku is likely to keep growing at a healthy clip:

A recent Nasdaq‑hosted analysis from The Motley Fool notes that analysts expect Roku’s revenue to grow about 13% to $5.3 billion in 2026, extending its streak of double‑digit annual growth to at least 11 years. Earnings are projected to more than triple versus 2025, which started the year in the red but turned profitable by mid‑year. ^[21]
Jefferies’ model, as noted above, builds in EBITDA of $610 million in 2026 and $845 million in 2027, well above prior Street estimates. ^[22]

Consensus is still catching up to the most aggressive bullish scenarios, but the general direction of revisions — both on revenue and profit — is clearly moving upward.

Strategic Drivers: Why the Platform Story Is Getting Stronger

Roku’s long‑term thesis has always revolved around its platform, not just the sale of streaming devices and Roku‑branded TVs.

1. Advertising and demand‑side platform integrations

Roku operates one of the leading connected TV (CTV) advertising platforms in the U.S. As the company itself has forecast in its 2026 streaming predictions, personalized TV advertising is expected to grow substantially, driven by richer data integrations with partners such as Amazon and The Trade Desk, as well as improvements in identity resolution across streaming apps and platforms. ^[23]

Jefferies explicitly points to:

Growing spend flowing through DSP ramps from Amazon and The Trade Desk,
The return of political ad spending, and
New monetization levers such as Roku’s home‑screen revamp

as key reasons why 2026 platform revenue could come in well above current expectations. ^[24]

2. Engagement: more hours streamed, more monetization opportunities

Roku stopped disclosing absolute active account numbers, but it continues to report engagement metrics. Recent commentary highlights: ^[25]

Streaming hours on Roku’s platform reached record levels in Q3 2025, with usage up about 14% year over year.
Management emphasises that both advertising and subscription revenue shares are contributing to platform growth.

Higher engagement supports the argument that Roku’s ad inventory and data are still under‑monetized relative to its scale — a central part of the Jefferies thesis.

3. Roku Channel and content partnerships

Roku also operates The Roku Channel, a free, ad‑supported streaming (FAST) service that ranks among the top apps on its platform by hours streamed. The channel, combined with third‑party services and Roku OS integrations with TV OEMs, deepens Roku’s role as a distribution and monetization layer across the streaming ecosystem. ^[26]

Partnerships — including a notable advertising tie‑up with Amazon’s ad business — are expected to play an important role in how Roku participates in the next phase of CTV ad growth through 2028 and beyond. ^[27]

Ownership Trends: Institutions Add, Insiders Trim

Today’s news flow isn’t just about sell‑side analysts; it also includes fresh disclosures on who owns Roku.

Nebula Research & Development LLC boosted its Roku stake by roughly 503% in Q2, bringing its position to 53,632 shares and making ROKU its 25th‑largest holding. ^[28]
Berkshire Capital Holdings Inc. recently trimmed its Roku position by about 7.8%, selling nearly 11,000 shares but still holding roughly 130,000 shares, which remain one of its top positions. ^[29]

Insider activity has skewed toward selling, which is common after big stock rebounds but still important to track:

MarketBeat reports that CEO Anthony Wood sold around 50,000 shares, and the CFO sold 3,000 shares, with insiders collectively selling more than 400,000 shares (roughly $40–55 million in value) over the last quarter. Insiders still own close to 14% of Roku, while institutional investors hold over 85% of the float. ^[30]

For investors, the mixed picture is typical of a volatile growth name: institutions are active on both the buy and sell side, while insiders are taking profits after a strong run.

Valuation Check: Is Roku Stock Expensive After the Rally?

Roku’s valuation is not for the faint‑hearted.

Based on recent data: ^[31]

Market capitalization sits in the mid‑teens billions of dollars.
Trailing twelve‑month revenue is around $4.5 billion.
Roku’s price‑to‑sales ratio is roughly 3–3.5x, depending on the exact share price used.
The company is only just crossing into consistent profitability, so traditional trailing P/E metrics are still not meaningful; forward P/E estimates are triple‑digit.
Net margin remains slightly negative (around –0.6%), but operating margin has turned positive, and free cash flow is solidly in the black. ^[32]

So why are bulls comfortable paying up?

The core argument is that Roku is transitioning from a capital‑intensive, loss‑making growth story to a structurally profitable ad‑platform business, and that the Street is underestimating both the sustainability of double‑digit revenue growth and the magnitude of margin expansion.

Bears, on the other hand, will argue that:

Competition in streaming devices and TV operating systems — from Amazon, Google, Apple and smart TV manufacturers — is intense.
Ad budgets are cyclical and vulnerable to macro slowdowns.
The stock’s volatility and rich multiples leave little room for execution missteps.

Both views can be true; the question is where in that spectrum an individual investor is comfortable taking risk.

Key Risks Heading Into 2026

Even with the positive narrative, several risks deserve attention:

Ad market cyclicality: Roku’s platform revenue is heavily tied to advertising. A macro slowdown or weaker‑than‑expected CTV ad growth could dent the bullish 2026 forecasts. ^[33]
Competitive pressure: Amazon Fire TV, Google TV, Samsung’s Tizen, LG’s webOS, Apple TV, and regional players all fight for screen time and ad dollars. Losing share at the operating‑system or app level would hurt Roku’s leverage. ^[34]
Regulatory and privacy changes: Tighter rules around data usage and ad targeting, or shifts in identity resolution techniques, could impact how effectively Roku monetizes viewing behavior. ^[35]
Execution risk on profitability: Roku has made impressive progress on operating income and free cash flow, but maintaining cost discipline while still investing in content, OS features and international expansion is a delicate balancing act. ^[36]

For long‑term shareholders, these risks don’t necessarily negate the thesis, but they do shape position sizing and time horizon.

Bottom Line: What Today’s News Means for Roku Stock

As of December 11, 2025, Roku stock sits at an interesting crossroads:

Near‑term momentum is strong, with the share price pushing toward the upper end of its 52‑week range and technical indicators confirming leadership status. ^[37]
Fundamentals are improving: double‑digit revenue growth, a profitable platform business, positive operating income, and accelerating free cash flow. ^[38]
Wall Street sentiment is leaning more bullish, highlighted by today’s Jefferies upgrade to Buy with a $135 target and Wedbush’s target increase to $130, on top of already constructive consensus forecasts for 2026. ^[39]

For growth‑oriented investors comfortable with volatility and valuation risk, Roku is increasingly being framed as a re‑accelerating ad‑tech and streaming platform story rather than a one‑dimensional device maker. For more conservative investors, the stock may still look pricey, but today’s analyst upgrades and stronger financial profile make it harder to ignore.