New York, Jan 30, 2026, 12:22 (EST) — Regular session
- Royal Caribbean shares dropped roughly 8% on Friday following a steep rise the day before.
- The cruise operator boosted its profit forecast for 2026, highlighting robust early bookings for the Wave season.
- Traders are closely monitoring if pricing and onboard spending stay strong during the peak booking period.
Shares of Royal Caribbean Group dropped roughly 7.8%, trading near $319 by midday Friday, down from a close of $345.98 the day before. Earlier, the stock fluctuated between $343 and $318.80.
This move is significant as cruise operators navigate the “Wave” season—the winter booking window when brands roll out promotions and gauge demand for the coming year. Investors often rely on this booking data as a rough indicator of discretionary travel spending.
Royal Caribbean’s report sent shockwaves through the entire group. Since cruise lines fiercely compete on pricing, routes, and onboard perks, changes in demand rarely affect just one company—they ripple across the whole sector.
Royal Caribbean raised its 2026 adjusted profit per share forecast to a range of $17.70 to $18.10 on Thursday, topping analysts’ estimates. The company also projected first-quarter adjusted EPS between $3.18 and $3.28. CEO Jason Liberty said, “WAVE is off to a great start, and we continue to see strong and growing preference for our leading brands and differentiated vacation experiences.” 1
The company reported that roughly two-thirds of its 2026 capacity is locked in at record-high prices. Onboard spending and pre-cruise purchases are outpacing previous years. It also projected double-digit revenue growth for 2026, driven by increased onboard spending and more expensive itineraries.
Royal Caribbean is banking on fresh ships and exclusive stops to boost onboard spending. The company has highlighted ventures like the Royal Beach Club Santorini and new routes connected to vessels like “Star of the Seas” and “Celebrity Xcel.”
Royal Caribbean announced 2025 adjusted EPS of $15.64 in a separate release and confirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. CFO Naftali Holtz commented, “We’re very pleased by the strength we’re seeing across our portfolio as consumers continue to prioritize our vacation experiences.” The company projects capacity to increase 6.7% in 2026, with net yield growth — revenue per passenger day — expected between 1.5% and 3.5% on a constant-currency basis. 2
Analyst notes started coming in. Mizuho cut its price target to $379 from $381 but maintained an “outperform” rating. The firm cited softer Caribbean trends in Q1, though it saw the weakness as limited. 3
Cruise stocks slipped Friday, with Carnival Corp shares dropping roughly 4.9%. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings also dipped, falling around 5.6% by midday.
But the situation can flip quickly. Cruise operators face risks from fuel prices, port delays, and shifts in consumer demand. When ships are nearly full, even slight pricing tweaks can swing earnings forecasts sharply.
As Wave season moves forward, investors are hunting for new clues on pricing and occupancy, along with shifts in onboard spending—an area companies have relied on to boost growth. A key date on the horizon is March 20, when Carnival is set to release earnings. Traders often treat this as a gauge for the entire cruise sector. 4
