RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX) heads into the Monday, Dec. 15, 2025 session with investors balancing a familiar mix of defense-budget momentum, contract headlines, and the long-running commercial engine story at Pratt & Whitney.
Shares last closed at $178.66 with a market cap of about $239 billion, according to market data available after the Friday session (Dec. 12).
Below is a news-and-forecast roundup of what’s most likely to matter for RTX stock before the bell.
The quick setup: why RTX matters to markets right now
RTX sits at the intersection of two multi-year demand cycles:
- Defense and missile systems (Raytheon), supported by steady-to-rising procurement priorities and persistent global rearmament themes.
- Commercial aerospace (Pratt & Whitney engines and Collins Aerospace systems/aftermarket), where airline capacity growth and high utilization continue to drive aftermarket demand—but with Pratt’s geared turbofan (GTF) recall and shop-visit throughput still a central investor variable.
In its most recent quarterly report (Q3 2025), RTX said it delivered $22.5 billion of sales (+12% year-over-year), posted adjusted EPS of $1.70, generated $4.0 billion of free cash flow, and reported a $251 billion company backlog. [1]
That same update raised the company’s full-year 2025 outlook to $86.5–$87.0 billion in adjusted sales and $6.10–$6.20 in adjusted EPS, while reaffirming $7.0–$7.5 billion of free cash flow. [2]
The most relevant recent headlines for RTX stock
1) U.S. defense policy tailwind: House passed the 2026 NDAA
Defense investors are watching the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) after the U.S. House passed a compromise version of the bill—described by Reuters as a nearly $1 trillion annual defense policy package that’s closely watched by major contractors including RTX. [3]
The Reuters report also highlighted $800 million for Ukraine via the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (split across the next two years), alongside other Europe-security provisions. [4]
Why it matters for RTX: even when exact program allocations vary year to year, “must-pass” defense policy bills can be sentiment support for prime contractors and large missile/air defense suppliers—especially in a market that trades headlines quickly.
2) Canada weapons package: U.S. approved a potential $2.68B sale with RTX as a principal contractor
Reuters reported that the U.S. State Department approved a potential $2.68 billion sale of air-strike weapons and related equipment to Canada, with Boeing and RTX listed as principal contractors. [5]
Why it matters for RTX: foreign military sales (FMS) approvals don’t automatically translate into immediate revenue, but they can reinforce backlog visibility and highlight demand for U.S.-aligned weapons ecosystems.
3) Space and cloud collaboration: Raytheon (RTX) and AWS announced a strategic agreement
On Dec. 4, Raytheon (an RTX business) announced a strategic collaboration agreement with Amazon Web Services aimed at advancing satellite data processing and mission control operations, including potential use of AWS AI/ML services and cloud-based tools to improve mission outcomes and program performance. [6]
Why it matters for RTX: this is more “positioning and capability” than an immediate financial catalyst, but it fits investor narratives around software-defined defense, space architectures, and data-centric missions.
4) F-35 engine sustainment: $1.6B contract action for Pratt & Whitney’s F135
RTX said Pratt & Whitney received a $1.6 billion “undefinitized contract action” to support F135 engine sustainment (the engine that powers all variants of the F-35), covering depot maintenance, spares, and other sustainment needs. [7]
Why it matters for RTX: sustainment work tends to be recurring and can provide steadier cash-flow characteristics than one-off hardware deliveries, while keeping Pratt & Whitney deeply embedded in a key defense platform.
5) Iron Dome / interceptors: $1.25B Tamir missile production contract tied to RTX’s JV
RTX’s Raytheon-Rafael joint venture (Raytheon Rafael Area Protection Systems / R2S) announced it was awarded a $1.25 billion contract to supply Israel with Tamir missiles and related items, and described added investment to expand missile production capacity in Arkansas. [8]
Why it matters for RTX: interceptors and air defense have been among the most visible “demand strength” categories across the sector, and this headline reinforces that theme.
6) Pension de-risking: a Q4 accounting charge is expected
In mid-November, Reuters reported RTX would transfer $2.5 billion of pension obligations to Prudential via a group annuity buyout and expected a $300 million non-cash charge in Q4 2025 tied to settlement accounting, with the transaction expected to close by Dec. 30. [9]
Why it matters for RTX stock: this is the kind of “clean-up” move that can reduce long-term pension volatility, but it can also change near-term optics (GAAP noise) and affect forward estimates—something analysts explicitly referenced in later notes (more on that below).
What analysts and forecasters are saying heading into Dec. 15
A fresh bull case: Citi initiates coverage with a $211 target
In the past few days, Citi initiated coverage on RTX with a Buy rating and a $211 price target, framing aerospace and defense as a set of durable “megatrends” and including RTX among preferred ideas. [10]
Other notable recent targets
Price targets and ratings have also been updated by several firms in the wake of RTX’s Q3 results and subsequent company actions:
- BofA raised its RTX price target to $215 and kept a Buy rating (Oct. 27). [11]
- Susquehanna raised its price target to $205 and kept a Positive rating (Oct. 22). [12]
- Jefferies raised its target to $190 but kept a Hold rating, citing factors including pension de-risking impacts and other expense/investment items; the note referenced a 2026 adjusted EPS estimate around $6.60. [13]
For a broad snapshot, MarketBeat recently showed a consensus price target around $181, with a reported target range from $129 to $215 (note that consensus dashboards can move as firms update coverage). [14]
How that ties back to fundamentals
RTX’s own 2025 adjusted EPS guide is $6.10–$6.20. [15]
At Friday’s close (~$178.66), that implies a rough forward multiple near 29x on the mid-point—before you debate whether the market should look through the pension charge, normalize segment margins, or give credit for any accelerating GTF recovery.
That multiple sensitivity is why Monday’s trading can be influenced as much by “tone” (defense bill momentum, program headlines, and aerospace sentiment) as by any single datapoint.
The key business driver investors keep coming back to: Pratt & Whitney’s GTF situation
Even with defense headlines grabbing attention, many long-horizon investors still see the GTF recall/inspection cycle—and Pratt’s ability to ramp output and MRO throughput—as the biggest swing factor for RTX’s medium-term narrative.
Production outlook: “high single-digit” growth, but requires execution
FlightGlobal reported that RTX leadership disclosed a goal to deliver 8–10% more PW1000 GTF engines in 2025 than in 2024, implying roughly 1,076–1,096 engines based on the prior-year baseline it cited—while acknowledging ramp needs and competing priorities (new deliveries vs. spare engines vs. recall support). [16]
MRO throughput: measurable progress (and investors will want to see it continue)
RTX’s Pratt & Whitney said that, as reported during RTX’s Q3 earnings, MRO output for the PW1100G-JM engine was up 21% year-to-date and expected to reach about 30% for the full year, helped by increased material flow (including isothermal forgings and structural castings). [17]
Why this matters for the stock
The market tends to reward signs that:
- engine shop visits are becoming more predictable,
- turnaround times improve, and
- compensation / disruption costs are not creeping higher than expected.
On the flip side, any indication that GTF constraints remain “worse for longer” can cap upside even when defense demand looks strong.
Dividend and capital return: what income-focused investors should know
RTX’s board declared a $0.68 per share quarterly dividend (declared Oct. 30, payable Dec. 11, to holders of record Nov. 21). [18]
Using Friday’s close (~$178.66), that dividend rate annualizes to $2.72 per share (about 1.5% annualized yield), assuming the dividend rate remains unchanged. [19]
In its Q3 report, RTX also said it returned $0.9 billion of capital to shareowners in the quarter and paid down $2.9 billion of debt. [20]
Risks to keep in mind before the bell
No pre-market checklist is complete without the downside considerations investors repeatedly cite with RTX:
- GTF recall duration and bottlenecks: production and MRO improvements matter, but the recall cycle still creates operational complexity and reputational sensitivity. [21]
- Pension and accounting noise: the de-risking transaction is positioned as a long-term risk reducer, but the Q4 non-cash charge (and any knock-on estimate changes) can affect headline EPS perception. [22]
- Compliance and contract-related enforcement: RTX/Raytheon have faced enforcement actions in recent years; in 2025 the DOJ announced an $8.4M resolution tied to allegations around cybersecurity requirements in federal contracts (which the companies denied in the settlement announcement). [23]
- Tariffs and supply chain: Reuters has previously noted RTX navigating demand strength alongside tariff concerns, and the broader aerospace supply chain remains a recurring constraint theme.
What to watch specifically on Monday, Dec. 15, 2025
Going into Monday’s open, RTX stock is most likely to react to incremental news flow, not the already-known Q3 print:
- Any new movement or commentary on U.S. defense policy following the House NDAA vote. [24]
- Additional contract announcements (domestic or allied procurement) that reinforce backlog and production visibility—especially in air defense and interceptors. [25]
- Any fresh data points on GTF shop capacity, turnaround times, or airline disruption—because that remains one of the highest-sensitivity variables in the RTX debate. [26]
- Analyst follow-through after Citi’s initiation—new coverage cycles sometimes prompt secondary notes, target changes, or “me-too” upgrades/downgrades across the group. [27]
Bottom line
Ahead of the Dec. 15 open, RTX has supportive headlines on the defense side (policy momentum and notable contract activity), while the commercial aerospace side remains a “show me” story centered on Pratt & Whitney’s ability to execute through the GTF recall environment while expanding MRO output and meeting production needs.
The near-term stock setup is less about whether demand exists—and more about whether operational throughput and financial visibility keep improving enough to justify higher multiples, especially after a year where management raised guidance and highlighted strong backlog. [28]
References
1. www.rtx.com, 2. www.rtx.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. raytheon.mediaroom.com, 7. raytheon.mediaroom.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.rtx.com, 16. www.flightglobal.com, 17. www.rtx.com, 18. www.rtx.com, 19. www.rtx.com, 20. www.rtx.com, 21. www.flightglobal.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.justice.gov, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.rtx.com, 27. www.barrons.com, 28. www.rtx.com
