As of the close on December 5, 2025, shares of Rubrik, Inc. (NYSE: RBRK) jumped roughly 22% to about $86.27, after the data‑security and AI‑operations company delivered strong Q3 fiscal 2026 results, raised its outlook, and drew a wave of fresh analyst upgrades and price‑target hikes. [1]
The move leaves Rubrik trading at around 170% above its $32 IPO price from April 2024, underscoring how quickly investor sentiment has shifted toward high‑growth cybersecurity and AI infrastructure names. [2]
Key Takeaways on Rubrik (RBRK) Stock Today
- Stock price reaction: RBRK closed near $86 on December 5, 2025, up about 22–23% on the day and more than 2.5x its IPO price of $32. [3]
- Q3 FY 2026 results:
- Revenue: $350.2 million, +48% year‑over‑year
- Subscription ARR: $1.35 billion, +34% year‑over‑year
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$0.10 profit vs a $(0.21) loss a year ago
- Free cash flow: $76.9 million vs $15.6 million a year earlier [4]
- Guidance raised: Rubrik now guides FY 2026 revenue to about $1.28 billion and free cash flow of $194–$202 million, while still expecting a small non‑GAAP net loss per share. [5]
- Analyst sentiment:
- MarketBeat: 22 analysts, consensus “Moderate Buy” and average 12‑month price target of ~$113, implying around 31% upside from current levels. [6]
- StockAnalysis: 18 analysts, consensus “Strong Buy” with an average target of $110.94, about 29% above the latest close. [7]
- GuruFocus: average target $113.44 from 21 analysts, implying roughly 31% upside from ~$86.8, with an “Outperform”‑type consensus. [8]
- Strategic catalysts: Earnings beat, AWS collaboration around Amazon Bedrock, new Rubrik Agent Cloud, Okta recovery solution, expanded CrowdStrike and Cognizant partnerships, and IDC recognition as a leader in cyber‑recovery. [9]
- Risks: Ongoing GAAP net losses, heavy stock‑based compensation, convertible debt and negative equity, premium valuation, aggressive insider selling, and intense competition across security and AI data‑infrastructure markets. [10]
Rubrik Stock Today: Price Action and Context
Rubrik’s stock was one of the top movers on Wall Street on December 5. In pre‑market trading, Barron’s flagged Rubrik Class A shares as leading the S&P 500 futures session with an ~18–19% jump, and those gains largely held and extended into the regular session. [11]
By the close, RBRK changed hands around $86.27, up $15.84 on the day (about +22.5%), on heavy volume north of 17 million shares. [12]
Zooming out:
- IPO: Rubrik priced its upsized IPO at $32 per share in April 2024 and raised around $750+ million, valuing the company at roughly $5.6 billion at the time. [13]
- Debut pop: Shares jumped nearly 21% on their first day of trading, closing around $37. [14]
- Current level: At about $86, Rubrik now trades close to 170% above its IPO price, reflecting investors’ willingness to pay up for high‑growth, AI‑levered security stories.
The immediate trigger for this week’s surge is the Q3 FY 2026 earnings beat and raised guidance, coupled with a drumbeat of positive analyst commentary and AI‑centric partnerships that aim to cement Rubrik’s place in cyber‑resilience and AI operations.
Inside Rubrik’s Q3 FY 2026 Earnings Beat
Rubrik’s third fiscal quarter of 2026 (ended October 31, 2025) delivered robust growth across all key metrics, significantly above its own guidance. [15]
Revenue and Subscription ARR
- Total revenue:$350.2 million, up 48% year‑over‑year from $236.2 million. [16]
- Subscription revenue:$336.4 million, up 52% from $221.5 million, reflecting the company’s shift to a software‑ and SaaS‑heavy model. [17]
- Subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR):
- Grew 34% year‑over‑year to $1.35 billion.
- Rubrik now counts 2,638 customers with at least $100K in subscription ARR, up 27% versus a year ago. [18]
This ARR profile is critical: Rubrik’s business is built around Rubrik Security Cloud (RSC) and related SaaS offerings that secure, monitor, and recover data, identities, and workloads across hybrid and multi‑cloud environments. [19]
Margins and Profitability
Rubrik remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but the quarter showed clear leverage:
- Gross margin:
- GAAP:80.5%, up from 76.2% a year ago.
- Non‑GAAP:82.8%, up from 79.2%. [20]
- Net income (GAAP):
- Net loss of $63.8 million (GAAP EPS $(0.32)), improved from a $130.9 million loss (EPS $(0.71)) in the prior‑year quarter. [21]
- Non‑GAAP EPS:
- $0.10 profit per diluted share, versus a $(0.21) non‑GAAP loss per share one year earlier. [22]
The swing to non‑GAAP profitability is largely driven by operating leverage and very high gross margins, while GAAP earnings remain pressured by stock‑based compensation (about $82.5 million in the quarter). [23]
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet
Rubrik’s cash‑generation story is improving quickly:
- Cash flow from operations:$85.5 million, up from $23.1 million in the year‑ago quarter.
- Free cash flow (FCF):$76.9 million vs $15.6 million a year ago. [24]
- Cash & short‑term investments:$1.60 billion as of October 31, 2025. [25]
At the same time, Rubrik has a capital structure that includes $1.13 billion in convertible senior notes and negative shareholders’ equity of about $524 million, highlighting both the growth‑stage nature and leverage in the business. [26]
Guidance: FY 2026 Outlook
Management raised its outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2026: [27]
- Q4 FY 2026
- Revenue: $341–$343 million
- Non‑GAAP net loss per share: $(0.12) to $(0.10)
- Subscription ARR contribution margin: ~9%
- Full‑Year FY 2026
- Subscription ARR: $1.439–$1.443 billion
- Revenue: $1.280–$1.282 billion
- Free cash flow: $194–$202 million
- Non‑GAAP net loss per share: $(0.20) to $(0.16)
In other words, Rubrik expects to be solidly FCF‑positive for the year, while still posting a small adjusted net loss as it continues heavy investment in R&D and go‑to‑market.
Strategic AI & Security Catalysts: AWS, Agent Cloud, and Ecosystem Plays
Beyond the numbers, Rubrik is leaning hard into its positioning as a “Security and AI Operations” company, and that narrative played a big role in today’s buying. [28]
AWS Collaboration and Amazon Bedrock
Recent coverage from trading and news platforms highlighted a strategic collaboration with Amazon Web Services (AWS):
- Rubrik is working with AWS to enhance cyber resilience in AWS environments, including an integration with Amazon Bedrock announced in November 2025.
- The partnership aims to deepen Rubrik’s AI capabilities around cloud data protection and threat response. [29]
Commentary from StocksToTrade and Timothy Sykes’ news desk framed this AWS partnership as a key catalyst, noting that Rubrik’s stock has been trending upward into and after the announcement, helped by broader enthusiasm for AI‑infused security platforms. [30]
Product and Ecosystem Updates
Rubrik’s latest quarter also featured a slate of product and ecosystem moves: [31]
- Rubrik Agent Cloud: A new offering designed to help enterprises deploy AI agents safely, by monitoring and auditing agentic actions, enforcing real‑time guardrails, and enabling rollbacks when agents make mistakes.
- Rubrik Okta Recovery: Automated, immutable backup and granular recovery for Okta Identity Provider environments, extending existing identity recovery capabilities for Active Directory and Entra ID.
- Expanded CrowdStrike partnership: Rubrik Identity Resilience now integrates with CrowdStrike Falcon Next‑Gen Identity Security, aiming to detect and reverse identity‑based attacks more effectively.
- Cognizant partnership (BRaaS): A “Business Resilience‑as‑a‑Service” solution that pairs Rubrik’s AI‑driven cyber resilience with Cognizant’s services to help enterprises move from reactive recovery to proactive continuity.
- Industry recognition: Rubrik was named a leader in the IDC MarketScape: Worldwide Cyber‑Recovery 2025 Vendor Assessment, strengthening its credibility as a core cyber‑recovery platform.
Taken together, these moves position Rubrik at the crossroads of data protection, identity security, and AI operations—a positioning that Wall Street increasingly views as strategic, not just tactical.
Wall Street Reaction: Upgrades, Targets, and Consensus
The earnings print and guidance reset triggered a flurry of analyst actions on and around December 5, 2025.
Fresh Upgrades and Target Hikes
Across MarketBeat, StockAnalysis, GuruFocus, and QuiverQuant data, recent moves include: [32]
- Piper Sandler (James Fish):
- Rating: Overweight / Buy reiterated
- Price target raised from $115 to $118
- Wedbush (Dan Ives):
- Rating: Outperform reiterated
- Target $120
- Rosenblatt Securities (Blair Abernethy):
- Rating: Buy
- Target lifted from $115 to $120
- Robert W. Baird (Shrenik Kothari):
- Rating: Outperform
- Target lifted from $120 to $130 (currently one of the highest on the Street).
- KeyBanc (Eric Heath):
- Rating: Overweight / Buy
- Target adjusted from $117 to $113, still implying solid upside.
- BMO Capital Markets (Keith Bachman):
- Rating: Outperform
- Target trimmed from $110 to $105, reflecting some valuation caution despite positive fundamentals.
Recent months also saw:
- Guggenheim (John DiFucci):Buy, target $108.
- Berenberg Bank:Buy, target $114, naming Rubrik a top sector pick alongside other security names. [33]
- Mizuho (Gregg Moskowitz): Upgrade to Outperform with a $97 target. [34]
- Oppenheimer:Market Perform initiation, representing a more neutral stance. [35]
There is also at least one Sell rating from Weiss Ratings, underscoring that not all observers are convinced the risk‑reward is favorable at current levels. [36]
Consensus Across Major Aggregators
Different data providers compute slightly different consensus figures, but all show broadly bullish sentiment:
- MarketBeat:
- 22 analysts
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Breakdown: 20 Buy, 1 Hold, 1 Sell
- Average 12‑month price target:$113.06 (range $85–$130), implying ~31% upside from ~$86. [37]
- StockAnalysis:
- 18 analysts
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”
- Average target: $110.94 (range $70–$130), about 28.6% above the latest share price. [38]
- GuruFocus:
- About 21 analysts
- Average target: $113.44 (high $130, low $92), implying roughly 30–31% upside from ~$86.80.
- Average brokerage recommendation around 1.8 on a 1–5 scale, consistent with “Outperform”. [39]
- QuiverQuant:
- Median target of $117 from 12 analysts over the last six months, with recent targets clustering between $105 and $130. [40]
In short, most major brokers now see Rubrik as an above‑average growth name with further upside, though one or two cautionary voices highlight valuation and risk.
Note: These targets and recommendations are produced by third‑party analysts and can change quickly. They are not guarantees and should not be taken as personalized investment advice.
Growth, Profitability, and Valuation: The Core Debate
The central question around Rubrik stock is whether its growth and strategic positioning justify its premium valuation and ongoing GAAP losses.
Growth Trends and Market Opportunity
Analyst models tracked by StockAnalysis point to a steep growth trajectory: [41]
- Fiscal 2025 revenue (year ended January 31, 2025): about $886.5 million.
- FY 2026 revenue forecast: around $1.26 billion, +~42% year‑over‑year.
- FY 2027 revenue forecast: roughly $1.57 billion, implying ~25% growth on top of 2026.
- EPS is expected to improve from about $(7.48) in FY 2025 to $(0.50) in FY 2026 and $(0.08) in FY 2027 on a forecast basis, reflecting a narrowing loss as scale kicks in.
On the market side, a widely cited S‑1 breakdown from Meritech, drawing on Gartner data, estimates Rubrik’s addressable market around $36.3 billion in 2024, rising to roughly $52.9 billion by 2027, a ~13% CAGR, across data security, backup, and cyber‑recovery categories. [42]
That backdrop—a fast‑growing TAM and Rubrik’s above‑market revenue growth—is a big part of the bull case.
Profitability and Cash Flow
At the same time, Rubrik is still far from GAAP profitability:
- Q3 FY 2026 GAAP net loss: $63.8 million, after a $130.9 million loss a year earlier. [43]
- For the first nine months of FY 2026, cumulative GAAP net loss remains over $260 million, even as revenue and cash flow grow. [44]
However, free cash flow is already positive and rising, with $76.9 million in Q3 and guidance for nearly $200 million in FY 2026. [45]
Third‑party screens cited by StocksToTrade and Timothy Sykes’ coverage note: [46]
- Very high gross margins around 78–83%, typical of high‑end software/SaaS businesses.
- Negative EBIT and net margins (often quoted in the –37% to –41% range on a trailing basis).
- A high price‑to‑sales ratio (roughly double‑digit EV/sales, sometimes quoted around 13x), and a negative price‑to‑book ratio, reflecting negative equity due to accumulated losses and convertible debt.
The bull view argues that:
- High gross margin and rising FCF show Rubrik has a structurally attractive model that can eventually produce strong earnings.
- AI‑driven data security and recovery are mission‑critical, allowing for durable pricing power.
The bear view counters that:
- At a double‑digit sales multiple, Rubrik needs to execute almost flawlessly, maintaining elevated growth for years.
- Heavy stock‑based compensation, convertible debt, and negative equity introduce financial‑structure risk if growth slows or markets turn risk‑off.
Ownership, Insider Activity, and Market Sentiment
Insider Selling and Institutional Positioning
Data compiled by QuiverQuant show intense insider selling in the six months leading up to the latest results: [47]
- 73 insider sale transactions and zero insider open‑market purchases over that period.
- Large disposals from key insiders, including CEO Bipul Sinha, CTO Arvind Nithrakashyap, and board members, often in multi‑million‑dollar tranches.
Some of this is likely associated with IPO lock‑up expirations and 10b5‑1 trading plans, but it’s still a data point cautious investors will watch.
On the flip side, institutional flows are mixed but active:
- 309 institutional investors added Rubrik shares in their latest quarter, while 189 reduced or exited positions.
- Big names like BlackRock and Federated Hermes added sizable stakes, while quant and macro players such as D.E. Shaw and Norges Bank trimmed exposure. [48]
Social and Trading‑Community Buzz
QuiverQuant’s social‑sentiment tracker notes a spike in positive chatter on X (formerly Twitter) following Rubrik’s earnings, with posts highlighting: [49]
- The 48% revenue jump to $350.2 million.
- 34% subscription ARR growth.
- Strong free cash flow and raised guidance.
- The wave of analyst buy ratings and target hikes.
Day‑trading‑oriented outlets like StocksToTrade and Timothy Sykes’ news platform featured Rubrik prominently as a top intraday mover, emphasizing the favorable technical breakout from the high‑$60s to mid‑$80s and framing RBRK as an attractive short‑term trading vehicle around catalysts like earnings and the AWS partnership. [50]
Rubrik Stock Forecast: Bull vs. Bear Frames
To be clear, no forecast is certain—and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell securities. But based on today’s information, coverage, and guidance, investors and traders are generally weighing two contrasting narratives.
Bull Case: A Core AI‑Security Compounder
The bullish view on RBRK looks roughly like this:
- Category leader in a growing, mission‑critical market
- Rubrik sits squarely in cyber‑recovery, data security, and AI‑operations, all of which are seeing secular tailwinds as enterprises modernize and harden their infrastructure. [51]
- Sustained high growth with improving efficiency
- Revenue growth near 50% and subscription ARR growth in the mid‑30s% show strong demand, while ARR contribution margin turning positive suggests scaling operating leverage. [52]
- Deep ecosystem ties with hyperscalers and security leaders
- Partnerships with AWS (Amazon Bedrock), Microsoft, CrowdStrike, and Cognizant deepen Rubrik’s moat and expand distribution. [53]
- Path to profitability already visible in cash flows
- Positive and growing free cash flow plus improving non‑GAAP profitability suggest the business model can ultimately deliver solid earnings as investment intensity normalizes. [54]
- Analyst and institutional backing
- The bulk of Wall Street coverage sits in Buy / Outperform / Strong Buy, and large institutions are accumulating positions, even as some hedge funds take profits. [55]
Bear Case: High Expectations, High Valuation, Real Risks
The bearish or cautious stance emphasizes:
- Rich valuation versus current fundamentals
- Double‑digit EV/sales and negative EBIT/net margins mean investors are paying a high price for future growth that may prove volatile in a competitive market. [56]
- Persistent GAAP losses and heavy stock‑based compensation
- Despite non‑GAAP profitability, GAAP net losses remain sizable, largely due to stock‑based pay, which also dilutes existing shareholders over time. [57]
- Balance sheet leverage and negative equity
- The presence of over $1.1 billion in convertible notes and negative shareholders’ equity could become more concerning if growth slows or capital markets tighten. [58]
- Insider selling
- Heavy insider sales with no open‑market insider buys in recent months may worry investors who equate insider selling with reduced conviction (though the reality is often more nuanced). [59]
- Intense competition
- Rubrik faces formidable competitors in backup, data management, and security—from Cohesity, Commvault, Veeam, Dell/EMC, IBM, and numerous cloud‑native security providers. [60]
What to Watch Next for RBRK in 2026
For investors and traders tracking Rubrik stock into 2026, some key focal points include:
- Q4 FY 2026 earnings vs. guidance
- Does Rubrik hit or beat its $341–$343 million revenue target and maintain positive FCF? [61]
- Sustainability of subscription ARR growth
- Watch whether subscription ARR growth holds in the 30%+ range and whether net new ARR remains robust as the base gets larger. [62]
- Progress toward GAAP profitability
- Any sign that GAAP operating and net margins are moving meaningfully closer to break‑even will likely be welcomed by longer‑term investors. [63]
- Execution on AI and ecosystem partnerships
- Adoption of Rubrik Agent Cloud, success of the AWS Bedrock integration, traction with CrowdStrike and Cognizant joint offerings, and new ecosystem partners will help gauge whether Rubrik can maintain an innovation edge. [64]
- Valuation and sentiment shifts
- With RBRK now a momentum name on many watchlists, swings in macro risk appetite, interest‑rate expectations, and sector rotations in tech could drive outsized volatility, even if fundamentals stay on track. [65]
Final Thoughts (and a Quick Reminder)
Rubrik’s December 5, 2025 rally reflects more than just a one‑off earnings surprise. The company is increasingly seen as a core player at the intersection of data security and AI operations, with strong growth, enviable gross margins, and accelerating free cash flow—but also real risks tied to valuation, leverage, and ongoing GAAP losses.
For anyone considering Rubrik stock:
- Treat analyst targets and media commentary as inputs, not instructions.
- Carefully weigh your own risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio mix.
- Consider speaking with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Nothing in this article is investment, tax, or legal advice; it’s a synthesis of public information and third‑party analysis as of December 5, 2025, and both the numbers and narrative can change quickly.
References
1. ir.rubrik.com, 2. www.rubrik.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. ir.rubrik.com, 5. ir.rubrik.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. www.gurufocus.com, 9. ir.rubrik.com, 10. ir.rubrik.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. www.rubrik.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. ir.rubrik.com, 16. ir.rubrik.com, 17. ir.rubrik.com, 18. ir.rubrik.com, 19. ir.rubrik.com, 20. ir.rubrik.com, 21. ir.rubrik.com, 22. ir.rubrik.com, 23. ir.rubrik.com, 24. ir.rubrik.com, 25. ir.rubrik.com, 26. ir.rubrik.com, 27. ir.rubrik.com, 28. ir.rubrik.com, 29. stockstotrade.com, 30. stockstotrade.com, 31. ir.rubrik.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. www.gurufocus.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. www.marketbeat.com, 38. stockanalysis.com, 39. www.gurufocus.com, 40. www.quiverquant.com, 41. stockanalysis.com, 42. www.meritechcapital.com, 43. ir.rubrik.com, 44. ir.rubrik.com, 45. ir.rubrik.com, 46. stockstotrade.com, 47. www.quiverquant.com, 48. www.quiverquant.com, 49. www.quiverquant.com, 50. stockstotrade.com, 51. ir.rubrik.com, 52. ir.rubrik.com, 53. stockstotrade.com, 54. ir.rubrik.com, 55. www.marketbeat.com, 56. stockstotrade.com, 57. ir.rubrik.com, 58. ir.rubrik.com, 59. www.quiverquant.com, 60. www.reuters.com, 61. ir.rubrik.com, 62. ir.rubrik.com, 63. ir.rubrik.com, 64. ir.rubrik.com, 65. www.barrons.com
