S32 Stock Today, November 26, 2025: South32 Edges Higher as Buy‑Backs and Manganese Recovery Support Shares

Updated: 26 November 2025 (AEST). This article is for information purposes only and is not financial advice.

S32 stock price today: modest gains on the ASX

South32 Ltd (ASX:S32), the diversified mining and metals group spun out of BHP, is trading slightly higher on Wednesday.

Real‑time data shows S32 changing hands at about A$3.18 in afternoon trade, a touch above Tuesday’s close of A$3.15. ^[1]

Based on end‑of‑day and recent intraday pricing:

Today’s trading range (so far): roughly A$3.16–A$3.23 ^[2]
Move vs Tuesday close: up around 1% (approximate, intraday)
5‑day trend: S32 is up low‑single‑digits over the past week after a volatile stretch earlier in November. ^[3]

Despite today’s uptick, the bigger picture is still mixed. Over the last 12 months, S32 shares are down around 15%, underperforming broader Australian indices as investors wrestle with operational swings and uncertainty around the group’s Mozal aluminium smelter. ^[4]

Year to date, S32 is slightly negative: data from one long‑term performance tracker shows the stock starting 2025 around A$3.40, trading between A$2.47 and A$3.78, and sitting in the low A$3s today – a mid‑single‑digit loss for the calendar year, even after recent rallies. ^[5]

Buy‑back program continues to underpin the share price

One of the quiet but important supports for S32 stock right now is South32’s ongoing share buy‑back program.

The company has been lodging “daily buy‑back notification” announcements with exchanges this week, confirming that on‑market repurchases are continuing. ^[6]
In its August full‑year results, South32 extended its capital management program to September 2026, with roughly US$144 million still available for returns to shareholders via buy‑backs and dividends at that time. ^[7]

Buy‑backs can be price‑supportive in two ways:

Direct demand – the company is a steady buyer of its own shares, which can help absorb selling pressure.
Per‑share maths – retiring stock gradually boosts earnings per share and, over time, can make valuation metrics like P/E and dividend yield look more attractive, assuming profits hold up.

For longer‑term holders, the continued buy‑backs send a clear signal: management believes S32 stock is undervalued at current levels and is prepared to deploy balance‑sheet capacity to close that gap.

Operations snapshot: alumina strength, manganese rebound, Mozal drag

South32 is highly diversified across commodities and geographies, with key operations in alumina, aluminium, manganese, copper, nickel, silver, zinc and metallurgical coal across Australia, South Africa, Mozambique, the Americas and the US. ^[8]

1. Manganese output beats expectations

A key pillar of the recent share‑price recovery has been manganese:

In October, South32 reported a 135% jump in quarterly manganese production to 1.4 million wet metric tonnes, beating analyst expectations of 1.23 million wmt.
Australian manganese operations bounced back strongly after earlier cyclone‑related disruptions, while insurance recoveries of about US$503 million further bolstered the balance sheet. ^[9]

The positive surprise saw S32 shares spike more than 6% on the day of that announcement, taking the price to its highest level since March and helping to repair sentiment following a tough first half of the year. ^[10]

2. Alumina and aluminium remain core profit engines

Alumina has been another bright spot:

For FY2025 (year to 30 June), South32 reported a 75% jump in annual profit, driven largely by a powerful contribution from its alumina operations, where operating earnings rose by about US$714 million thanks to a ~45% price surge. ^[11]

Aluminium also benefitted from tight global supply and higher input costs, though margins there are vulnerable to power prices – a theme that looms large at Mozal.

3. Mozal aluminium: impairment and future uncertainty

The Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique is currently one of the biggest overhangs on the investment story:

In August, South32 announced plans to mothball Mozal in 2026, after failing to secure affordable power beyond the expiration of its current electricity agreement in March 2026.
The company flagged a US$372 million impairment related to the smelter and expects its share of output to fall from roughly 355kt in 2025 to 240kt in 2026 if mothballing proceeds. ^[12]

Earlier this year, analysts had already warned that higher energy costs at Mozal could erode hundreds of millions of dollars in value, highlighting just how sensitive smelter economics are to power tariffs. ^[13]

The Mozal decision cuts future aluminium volumes but may ultimately improve the group’s risk profile if uncompetitive production is removed from the portfolio.

September quarter update: production momentum returns

South32’s September 2025 quarterly report reinforced the sense that operations, outside of Mozal, are on a firmer footing:

Group production showed a 12% increase in payable copper equivalent output at the Sierra Gorda mine in Chile, reflecting higher throughput and grades.
A 33% uplift in some key production metrics (including critical metals exposure) underpinned management’s confidence in meeting FY2026 guidance. ^[14]

The quarter also confirmed:

Aluminium production ticking higher as Hillside Aluminium in South Africa tests its maximum technical capacity. ^[15]
Progress at Worsley Alumina in Western Australia, a cornerstone asset which earlier in 2025 secured federal environmental approval to extend its operational life to at least FY2036, supporting long‑term alumina supply and earnings visibility. ^[16]

Operationally, the story is one of steady recovery and refocusing, even as legacy issues like Mozal and some one‑off costs weigh on recent financial statements.

Financial picture: profits up, but one‑offs muddy the view

On headline numbers, South32 looks stronger than it did a year ago:

Underlying earnings for FY2025 jumped to about US$666 million, up from US$380 million the year before – a 75% increase. ^[17]

However, investors have been cautious for several reasons:

The result missed consensus forecasts (roughly US$698 million), reminding the market that cost inflation and weather impacts still matter. ^[18]
More recent trailing 12‑month figures are affected by a large one‑off loss of about US$373 million, tied in part to impairments like Mozal, which distorts conventional profit metrics. ^[19]

That combination – improving underlying trends but messy reported numbers – explains why S32 can look simultaneously “cheap” on some valuation screens and “risky” on others.

How expensive is S32 stock now?

Across the analyst community and data providers, the broad message is that S32 appears reasonably valued with moderate upside, but not screamingly cheap.

A selection of recent datapoints:

One consensus forecast site pegs the 12‑month average target price at about A$3.51, implying roughly low‑teens percentage upside from the current A$3.18 level. The same source lists the consensus recommendation as “Hold”, based on around 20 analysts. ^[20]
Another aggregator tracking Wall Street and Australian broker research calls S32 a “Moderate Buy”, with an average price target near A$3.43 and no active Sell ratings in the last three months. ^[21]
A Reuters summary around the October production update noted that 8 of 16 analysts rated S32 ‘Hold’, while 8 rated it some form of ‘Buy’, with a median target around A$3.30. ^[22]
Over in London, where South32 also trades, one UK‑focused platform shows a more cautious stance, with a “Reduce” consensus and a target price below the current LSE quote, reflecting different local expectations and currency dynamics. ^[23]

In plain English: the market is split. Many analysts see modest upside if South32 executes on its plan and commodity prices cooperate; a smaller but vocal group is wary of execution risk, costs and cyclicality.

Key risks still hanging over S32 stock

Even with today’s mild bounce, investors in S32 face several important risks:

Commodity price volatility
South32’s earnings are tied to prices for alumina, aluminium, manganese, copper, nickel, silver and other metals. A broad pullback in base‑metal and alumina prices would likely pressure margins and cash flow.
Energy and input costs
The Mozal story is a stark reminder that electricity pricing can make or break smelters. Similar dynamics, if replicated elsewhere in the portfolio, could crimp returns or force further restructuring. ^[24]
Execution on portfolio reshaping
South32 is actively reshaping its asset base, including planned divestments (like Cerro Matoso) and a pivot towards “future‑facing” metals such as copper and zinc. Execution missteps, permitting delays or community opposition could slow this transition. ^[25]
Capital allocation discipline
While buy‑backs are shareholder‑friendly now, they also compete with growth spending on copper projects such as Hermosa in Arizona and other development options in the Americas. Balancing returns today against long‑term growth is a perennial challenge. ^[26]
Macro and policy risk
As a multi‑jurisdictional miner, South32 is exposed to changes in tax regimes, royalties, environmental regulation and ESG expectations across Australia, Africa and the Americas.

What to watch next for S32 stock

For traders and longer‑term investors tracking S32 from today, some key catalysts over the coming months include:

Next quarterly production report (January 2026) – the market will want to see that the strong manganese and copper trends from the September quarter are sustainable, and that no new weather‑related disruptions emerge. ^[27]
Further clarity on Mozal – any update on power negotiations in Mozambique, or confirmation that mothballing is locked in, will be closely scrutinised for both earnings and ESG implications. ^[28]
Alumina and aluminium pricing – given alumina’s outsized contribution to FY2025 profit, investors will keep a close eye on pricing trends and Worsley Alumina’s performance, especially following its life‑extension approvals. ^[29]
Progress on copper growth pipeline – any updates on development projects in the Americas, or potential M&A activity, could reshape South32’s earnings mix and valuation profile over the medium term. ^[30]

Bottom line

On November 26, 2025, S32 stock is quietly firmer, supported by ongoing buy‑backs and improving production momentum in key units like manganese and alumina. Yet the share price still trades below last year’s levels, reflecting lingering worries over Mozal, cost inflation and the usual commodity‑cycle uncertainties.

For now, the consensus view is that South32 is a mid‑risk, mid‑reward diversified miner: not a clear bargain, but a name with visible capital returns, decent upside if metals stay supportive, and enough moving parts to keep both bulls and bears engaged.

Anyone considering S32 should carefully weigh that balance – and, ideally, seek professional advice tailored to their own financial situation – before making an investment decision.