Salesforce (CRM) Stock Outlook After Q3 FY26 Earnings: AI Agents, Data Cloud and Wall Street Forecasts as of December 11, 2025

Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE: CRM) has spent 2025 in the uncomfortable position of being both an AI story and an AI laggard in the stock market. After a difficult first half of the year, the latest quarter and a flurry of strategic moves since November 21, 2025 are forcing investors to reassess the long‑term outlook for Salesforce stock.

As of December 11, 2025, Salesforce shares trade around $265 per share, up roughly 17% from about $227 at the close on November 21, 2025, but still about 28% below their 52‑week high near $367 set in January. ^[1] The question now is whether the company’s AI agent platform Agentforce, its newly completed Informatica acquisition, and raised guidance are enough to sustain this rebound into 2026 and beyond.

Below is a detailed breakdown of the most important news, forecasts, and analyses on Salesforce stock published since November 21, 2025, and what they may mean for investors.

1. Salesforce stock performance since November 21, 2025

Price move:
- Nov 21, 2025 close: $227.11
- Dec 11, 2025 recent close: $265.36
  → Gain of roughly 16–17% in just under three weeks. ^[2]
Versus the high: Even after the rebound, Salesforce is still about 28% below its 52‑week high of $367.09, according to MarketWatch. ^[3]
Year‑to‑date performance: An analysis from Investopedia notes that despite the post‑earnings bounce, Salesforce shares remain down nearly 30% for 2025, having badly trailed many software peers in the year’s AI rally. ^[4]

In the immediate aftermath of its Q3 FY26 results, Salesforce stock jumped around 4–5% on the day, one of the top gainers in the S&P 500, before adding more gains in early December trading. ^[5]

2. Q3 FY26 earnings: AI agents and data lift guidance

On December 3, 2025, Salesforce released results for its fiscal Q3 2026 (quarter ended October 31, 2025) and raised its full‑year guidance. ^[6]

Key numbers

From Salesforce’s filings and third‑party analysis:

Revenue: About $10.26–10.30 billion, up roughly 8–9% year over year. ^[7]
Subscription & support revenue:$9.7 billion, +10% YoY. ^[8]
Professional services & other: Around $0.5–0.53 billion, down mid‑single digits YoY. ^[9]
GAAP net income: Roughly $2.1 billion, up from $1.5 billion a year earlier. ^[10]
Diluted GAAP EPS: About $2.19 vs. $1.58 a year ago. ^[11]
Non‑GAAP EPS: About $3.25, up ~35% YoY. ^[12]
Non‑GAAP operating margin:35.5%, up from 33.1% in the prior year. ^[13]

In other words, Salesforce is converting more of its revenue into profit: Simply Wall St notes quarterly revenue has risen from $9.4 billion in Q3 FY25 to $10.3 billion in Q3 FY26, while basic EPS climbed from $1.60 to $2.20, highlighting clear margin expansion. ^[14]

Free cash flow: a growing pillar of the bull case

A deep dive from Barchart highlights just how cash‑generative Salesforce has become: ^[15]

Q3 free cash flow (FCF):$2.18 billion, up ~22% YoY.
Nine‑month FCF: About $9.1 billion, up ~5% YoY.
Q3 FCF margin: Around 21.2% of revenue.
Trailing‑12‑month FCF margin: Close to 32%.

Barchart’s analyst uses these figures to argue that CRM could be 23% undervalued, estimating a one‑year price target around $321 based on a 32% FCF margin and modest multiple expansion. ^[16]

Salesforce’s own filings show that for the nine months ended October 31, 2025, it generated about $9.5 billion in operating cash flow and held nearly $9.0 billion in cash plus $2.35 billion in marketable securities on its balance sheet. ^[17]

AI agents and Data 360: where growth is accelerating

The real headline from Q3, however, is AI:

Management reported that Agentforce and Data 360 now generate nearly $1.4 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR), up 114% YoY. ^[18]
Futurum Group notes that Agentforce ARR grew about 330% YoY, with over 9,500 paid Agentforce deals and 3.2 trillion tokens processed via Salesforce’s LLM gateway. ^[19]
Over 70% of Salesforce’s top 100 deals now include at least five clouds, a signal that AI is driving deeper multi‑cloud adoption. ^[20]

On the data side:

Data 360 ingested 32 trillion records in Q3, up 119% YoY, and unstructured data processed grew 390% YoY, with massive growth in “zero‑copy” data federation. ^[21]

Futurum’s takeaway: Salesforce is shifting from AI experimentation to early‑scale deployment, with Agentforce acting as a catalyst for broader platform usage. ^[22]

Guidance: raised forecasts and a 2030 revenue ambition

Salesforce used the quarter to raise its outlook:

FY26 revenue guidance:
- New: $41.45–$41.55 billion (about 9% constant‑currency growth)
- Prior: $41.1–$41.3 billion. ^[23]
FY26 adjusted EPS:
- Raised to $11.75–$11.77, vs prior $11.33–$11.37. ^[24]
FY26 non‑GAAP operating margin: About 34.1%, with operating cash flow expected to grow 13–14%. ^[25]
Q4 FY26 guidance: Revenue $11.13–$11.23 billion and non‑GAAP EPS $3.02–$3.04, with current remaining performance obligation (cRPO) growth around 15% nominal. ^[26]

Separately, management has reaffirmed a long‑term target to exceed $60 billion in annual revenue by 2030, implying roughly a 9–10% compound annual growth rate from the FY26 guidance base. ^[27]

3. Strategic moves: Informatica, data foundations and Agentforce wins

Informatica acquisition is now complete

On November 18, 2025, Salesforce announced it had completed its $8 billion acquisition of Informatica, a leading enterprise data management vendor. ^[28]

According to Salesforce, integrating Informatica:

Brings advanced data catalog, integration, governance, quality, privacy and MDM services directly into the Salesforce platform.
Strengthens Data 360 as the unified data foundation powering AI agents.
Deepens Salesforce’s already significant metadata advantage, enabling more accurate and explainable AI outcomes across its ecosystem. ^[29]

Benioff has repeatedly argued that “getting data right” is the prerequisite to “getting AI right,” and the Informatica deal is central to that thesis. ^[30]

Strategy focus: data, core apps, Agentforce and bespoke AI agents

In an interview with Business Insider, Benioff outlined four pillars of Salesforce’s new V2MOM strategy for the coming fiscal year: ^[31]

Data foundation – harmonizing and integrating customer data using Data 360, MuleSoft and Informatica.
Core applications – CRM, Slack and Tableau layered atop that data.
Agentforce platform – Salesforce’s AI agent layer, which has “dramatically evolved” over the past year.
Industry‑specific and internal AI agents – tailored for sectors like retail, automotive, pharma, and for internal use (e.g., advanced Slackbots).

The theme: Salesforce wants to be the “agentic enterprise” platform, where humans, apps and AI agents operate on a common data foundation.

New Agentforce customer wins

Since November 21, Salesforce has announced a series of notable Agentforce deployments:

U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) – expanding its use of Salesforce and deploying Agentforce to modernize citizen support, grant management and safety operations, using AI agents to analyze complex data (like weather and traffic) and automate tasks such as complaint handling and grant processing. ^[32]
DeVry University – rolling out Agentforce 360 and Data 360 to provide 24/7 AI‑powered support for more than 32,000 learners, streamline enrollment and replace legacy chatbots with more capable agents. ^[33]
AstraZeneca – selecting Agentforce Life Sciences as its unified global engagement platform to deliver AI‑powered, data‑driven interactions with healthcare professionals across oncology, rare disease and broader biopharma portfolios. ^[34]

These logos matter: they show Agentforce gaining traction in public sector, higher education and life sciences—industries that tend to sign large, multi‑year deals.

4. What Wall Street is saying now about Salesforce stock

Consensus ratings and price targets

Across multiple aggregators, Wall Street remains broadly positive on Salesforce:

MarketBeat: 42 analysts, consensus “Moderate Buy”, with an average 12‑month price target of about $326.46 (range ~$221–$430), implying roughly 24% upside from around $263. ^[35]
StockAnalysis: 35 analysts, consensus “Buy”, average target $324.49, about 23% upside over the next year. ^[36]
Value/DCF aggregators: Several platforms (Alphaspread, ValueInvesting.io, TickerNerd) cluster around $330 as a median or average one‑year target, with upside in the 22–27% range depending on the current price and the sample of analysts. ^[37]

Investopedia summarises post‑earnings sentiment: of 18 analysts surveyed, 14 rate Salesforce a “buy” and 4 are neutral, with an average target around $330 that would nearly retrace the stock’s losses from early 2025. ^[38]

High‑profile analyst moves since late November

Recent price‑target updates include: ^[39]

Morgan Stanley – Maintains Overweight; trimmed its target from $405 to $398 after Q3, still one of the Street’s highest targets.
Bank of America – Reiterates a bullish stance with a $305 target, highlighting strong backlog and cRPO growth.
Jefferies – Keeps a positive view with a target around $375.
Citizens – “Market Outperform” with a $430 target.
Oppenheimer – “Outperform,” trimming its target from $315 to $300 after volatility earlier in the quarter.
Citigroup – “Neutral,” cutting its target from $276 to $253, reflecting a more cautious stance.

A Yahoo Finance recap notes that at least one large broker raised its Salesforce target from $315 to $395 following the Q3 report, underscoring how the strong AI‑driven results have softened prior skepticism. ^[40]

Valuation models: FCF and DCF views

Barchart FCF model – ~23% undervalued

As noted above, Barchart’s Mark Hake argues that: ^[41]

With trailing FCF margins near 32%,
and consensus forecasts for revenue to rise to around $45.8 billion next year,
a reasonable valuation would put Salesforce’s market cap about 23% higher, implying a price near $321.

Simply Wall St DCF & narrative scenarios

Simply Wall St’s latest valuation article (Dec 2025) concludes that Salesforce is meaningfully undervalued: ^[42]

They estimate a fair P/E “Fair Ratio” of 40.7× versus a current multiple closer to 34.3×, suggesting attractive value on earnings.
A DCF‑driven intrinsic value comes out around $358, implying roughly 26% upside.
Their “Bull Case” narrative sets a fair value near $327 (about 19% undervalued) based on strong AI adoption and sustained margin expansion.
Their “Bear Case” narrative pegs fair value near $224, about 18% below the current price, assuming more intense competition, pricing pressure and lower long‑run margins.

Together, these models show how plausible assumptions can support very different fair values, but most cluster above today’s price.

5. Not everyone is convinced: AI adoption and competitive risks

KeyBanc CIO survey: Microsoft leads AI budgets, Salesforce playing catch‑up

A widely discussed Barron’s piece based on a KeyBanc survey of CIOs paints a more mixed picture. ^[43]

Overall IT budgets are expected to grow about 3.7% in 2026, but AI spending is rising faster, from 3.2% to 4.7% of budgets.
Microsoft appears to be the major AI winner: 91% of respondents plan to increase spending on its cloud AI services.
For CRM‑embedded AI, only 36% of respondents said they’re willing to pay extra for AI capabilities from their CRM vendor, down from 46%.
Just 7% reported using Salesforce’s Agentforce tools so far.

Despite this, Salesforce remains the most widely cited CRM provider, with 45% of respondents naming it as their primary CRM (up from 35%). The analyst quoted in Barron’s still carries a $400 price target but cautions that Salesforce must prove it can monetize AI at scale.

24/7 Wall St: long‑term bullish, short‑term execution risk

A comprehensive 24/7 Wall St forecast from November 28, 2025 highlights both the upside and the risks: ^[44]

They note Salesforce’s 24% revenue CAGR from FY2014–FY2024 and a 44% CAGR in net income from 2017–2024, fueled by major acquisitions like MuleSoft, Tableau and Slack.
However, they flag:
- Intense competition from Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, HubSpot and others.
- Investor pressure to curb large acquisitions and focus on profitability.
- Concerns that adoption of Agentforce initially lagged, contributing to weaker 2025 guidance earlier in the year.
- The transition from former CFO Amy Weaver to new CFO Robin Washington as a governance risk.

24/7 Wall St cites a median Street target of $324.49, consistent with other aggregators, but offers its own 2025 target of $302, rising stepwise to $493.80 by 2030 in a bullish scenario, assuming continued AI‑driven growth and margin expansion. ^[45]

6. International growth, dividend, and new data about the business

International and segment performance

Nasdaq’s analysis of Salesforce’s international results notes that in Q3 FY26: ^[46]

Americas contributed about $6.7 billion in revenue.
Europe delivered around $2.5 billion.
Asia Pacific generated about $1.1 billion.

The Americas remain the core, but Europe is a significant growth driver, and Asia‑Pacific still offers long‑term upside despite macro and FX headwinds.

New quarterly dividend

On December 4, 2025, Salesforce declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.416 per share, payable January 8, 2026 to shareholders of record on December 18, 2025. ^[47]

At current prices around $265, that implies a modest forward yield of roughly 0.6%, but the real signal is strategic: Salesforce is positioning itself as a maturing, cash‑generative platform able to return capital via both buybacks and dividends, while still funding heavy AI investment.

7. Salesforce stock forecast: 2026–2030 scenario ranges

Bringing together company guidance and external forecasts:

Company guidance implies FY26 revenue around $41.5 billion with non‑GAAP operating margins in the mid‑30s and double‑digit operating cash‑flow growth. ^[48]
Management has articulated a target to exceed $60 billion in revenue by 2030, implying roughly 9–10% annual revenue growth from the FY26 base. ^[49]
24/7 Wall St’s long‑term model imagines Salesforce shares reaching roughly $334 by 2026 and $494 by 2030, assuming continued earnings growth and successful AI commercialization. ^[50]
Alphaspread and similar services estimate a 9% revenue CAGR through the next three years, broadly aligning with company guidance. ^[51]

Put simply, most formal “Salesforce stock forecast” models currently assume:

High‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit revenue growth for several years,
Sustained high‑20s to low‑30s FCF margins, and
Moderate multiple compression or stability from today’s valuation.

If those assumptions hold, the consensus view of 20–25% upside over 12 months and higher upside over a 3–5‑year horizon is internally consistent. If revenue growth or AI monetization fall short, those targets will almost certainly be revised lower.

8. Key risks to the Salesforce bull case

Even with strong Q3 results and upbeat forecasts, several risks could derail the bull thesis:

AI monetization risk
- The KeyBanc CIO survey suggests limited willingness to pay for CRM‑embedded AI today and low current Agentforce penetration. ^[52]
- If customers continue to view AI as a “free feature” rather than a premium add‑on, Agentforce revenue could underwhelm.
Intense competition
- Microsoft’s AI Copilot and Dynamics 365, Oracle, SAP, HubSpot and others are all targeting the same budgets. ^[53]
- Salesforce’s premium pricing could face pressure if generative AI capabilities become commoditized.
Integration and execution risk with Informatica
- Informatica is a large, complex acquisition. Successfully integrating its data stack and realizing promised margin accretion within 12 months is not guaranteed. ^[54]
Macro and IT spending cycles
- Slower enterprise IT spending, particularly in Europe or APAC, could weigh on new bookings and delay the revenue “re‑acceleration” management is signaling for the next 12–18 months. ^[55]
Valuation and volatility
- Even after the pullback, Salesforce trades at a premium multiple to many software peers, and it has a history of sharp drawdowns during macro stress (a point emphasized by Trefis/Forbes in a November 21 piece comparing past crises). ^[56]

9. So is Salesforce (CRM) stock a buy, hold, or sell?

From a news and analysis standpoint since November 21, 2025, a few themes are clear:

Fundamentals are improving:
Revenue is growing high‑single‑digits, margins are expanding, and free cash flow is robust and rising.
AI story is becoming more tangible:
Agentforce and Data 360 are now a multi‑billion‑dollar ARR run‑rate asset with triple‑digit growth, large reference customers, and tight integration with the newly acquired Informatica platform.
Wall Street is cautiously optimistic:
Most analysts rate CRM a Buy or Overweight, with average 12‑month targets in the $320–$330 range, 20–25% above current levels, and several independent FCF/DCF models point to similar or higher upside. ^[57]
But execution risk is real:
Surveys show AI spending tilting heavily to Microsoft for now, Agentforce adoption is still in early innings, and Salesforce must prove it can convert its data and AI roadmap into durable, paid usage at scale. ^[58]

How to interpret this as an investor

For long‑term growth‑oriented investors comfortable with volatility and AI platform risk, the current setup—mid‑30s margins, strong FCF, a credible data/AI strategy and a stock still 28% below its high—can justify a constructive view, provided you accept the possibility of further drawdowns if AI adoption or macro trends disappoint.
For more conservative or income‑focused investors, the small dividend and still‑premium multiple may not be compelling enough, especially with ongoing competitive and integration risks.

Either way, Salesforce is entering 2026 as a high‑quality, cash‑rich software leader with something to prove in AI—and Wall Street’s forecasts reflect both that quality and that uncertainty.