Salesforce (CRM) Stock: What to Watch Before the December 1, 2025 Open as AI Fears, Holiday Data and Q3 Earnings Collide

As U.S. markets get ready to reopen on Monday, December 1, 2025, Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE: CRM) heads into a pivotal week trading around $230.54 per share after Friday’s close. ^[1]

The stock sits much closer to its 52‑week low of about $222 than its high near $369, and is down roughly 30% over the past year, even as Wall Street still expects high‑single‑digit revenue growth and healthy margins. ^[2]

Between record Black Friday online spending that Salesforce helped measure, an earnings report due December 3, and noisy debate about whether AI is a threat or a tailwind, CRM is set up for an eventful first week of December.

Below is a full rundown of the latest news, forecasts, and analysis from November 28–30, 2025, and what they mean heading into the open.

1. Where Salesforce Stock Stands Heading Into December 1

• Last close (Nov 28, 2025): $230.54
• Move on Friday: +1.05%
• 52‑week range: roughly $221.96 – $369.00 ^[3]
• 1‑year performance: about ‑30% vs the broader market’s gain. ^[4]

On valuation:

• Trailing P/E: ~33–34
• Forward P/E: ~19
• Price‑to‑sales: ~5.6x current year revenue; forward PS ~5.0x. ^[5]

That puts Salesforce at a discount to its own history—GuruFocus and Zacks both note the current sales multiple is well below the company’s multi‑year median of around 7–8x. ^[6]

In simple terms: the market is paying a quality‑software multiple, but not a “hyper‑growth AI darling” multiple. That matters because this week’s earnings could either justify that caution or make the discount look overdone.

2. Holiday E‑Commerce: Salesforce Data Shows Strong Dollars, Weaker Volumes

Thanksgiving and Black Friday: Big Spending, Tariff Squeeze

On November 28, Reuters reported that U.S. Thanksgiving online sales were expected to rise 6% year over year to $8.6 billion, based on Salesforce data. By 2 p.m. ET on Thanksgiving, shoppers had already spent $2.6 billion online, up 5.8% from 2024. ^[7]

Salesforce’s data also projected:

• Black Friday global online sales: ~$78 billion
• Black Friday U.S. online sales: ~$18 billion
• Entire Nov 1–Dec 31 U.S. online holiday season: up only 2.1% to $288 billion, slower than the prior year’s 4% growth. ^[8]

A November 29 Reuters piece on Black Friday, widely syndicated across financial outlets, added more color:

• U.S. online Black Friday spending hit a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from 2024.
• AI‑powered shopping tools and “agents” were credited with a huge traffic surge, with AI and agents influencing about $14.2 billion in global online sales, roughly $3 billion in the U.S., according to Salesforce. ^[9]

The Associated Press echoed these numbers, noting that despite economic uncertainty, shoppers still spent aggressively online. Salesforce’s data showed average selling prices up around 7%, order volumes down about 1%, and units per transaction down 2%, suggesting inflation and tariffs are pushing shoppers to spend more per item while buying fewer things. ^[10]

What this means for Salesforce stock

Salesforce doesn’t earn a cut of retail gross merchandise value, but holiday traffic and transaction volume are a “health check” on the digital economy that runs on CRM, marketing automation, and analytics:

• Strong online demand suggests continued relevance for Salesforce’s Commerce Cloud, Data Cloud / Data 360, and marketing tools.
• But the mix of higher prices and lower units reinforces the macro story: growth is there, but not “booming”, matching Salesforce’s own holiday forecast of slower overall online expansion. ^[11]

For investors, the holiday data supports a “steady but not explosive” demand backdrop going into Q3 earnings.

3. AI and Agentforce: Bull vs Bear Narratives From Nov 28–30

Bull case: Agentforce and Data Cloud are gaining real traction

A November 29 analysis from GuruFocus, republished on Investing.com as “The Agentforce Opportunity: Why Salesforce Will Win Autonomous AI,” makes a detailed bullish argument. Key points: ^[12]

• Data Cloud + Agentforce have reached over $1.2 billion in annual recurring revenue, growing about 120% year over year.
• Salesforce has already closed around 6,000 Agentforce deals, with another ~6,500 in the pipeline—evidence that AI agents are moving beyond pilots into production.
• In fiscal Q2 2026, Salesforce delivered:
  • Revenue of $10.24 billion, up 10% YoY, a re‑acceleration after several quarters in the high‑single digits.
  • Subscription revenue up 11%.
  • Non‑GAAP operating margin of 34.3%, the tenth consecutive quarter of margin expansion.
  • Free‑cash‑flow margin north of 30%.
• Management raised FY 2026 revenue guidance to $41.1–$41.3 billion, implying 8.5–9% growth.

The article argues that at roughly 5.8x sales, near a two‑year low vs a ~7.7x historical median, the stock is priced as if AI is a minor feature, not a second growth engine. A DCF model in the piece finds CRM modestly undervalued (~7% upside in the base case), with much larger upside if revenue growth sustains >10% while margins stay at today’s elevated levels. ^[13]

Bear / skeptical take: AI is fueling doubt, not excitement

Not everyone is convinced. A Barron’s article from late November warns that Salesforce’s upcoming Q3 results may not calm fears that AI could actually hurt the company. Citi analyst Tyler Radke:

• Keeps a Hold rating.
• Cuts his price target from $276 to $253.
• Highlights that CRM shares are roughly 30% lower year to date and have underperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin over five years. ^[14]

The piece stresses:

• Growth has slowed versus the company’s historical ~17% average.
• Salesforce’s AI and data products (including Agentforce and Data Cloud) already contribute around $1.2 billion ARR, but adoption still looks limited relative to the core business. ^[15]

Similarly, a November 28 Seeking Alpha analysis titled “Salesforce’s Q3 Centers of Gravity: Fear, AI, And The 10% Problem” frames Q3 around three pressure points: ^[16]

1. Growth vs. 10% – whether revenue can convincingly clear a psychological 10% threshold.
2. AI narrative – AI has flipped from a pure tailwind to a source of doubt about Salesforce’s moat and long‑term payoff.
3. Margins & guidance – with margins already strong, investors want proof that earnings quality is sustainable, not simply a short‑term cost‑cut story.

The bottom line from this camp: fear is dominating fundamentals until Salesforce can show AI is adding growth, not just headlines.

“Tipping point” framing: Agentforce vs expectations

A Salesforce Ben article on November 28, “Why Salesforce Q3 Earnings Will Be a Tipping Point for Agentforce,” argues that this is the first major earnings test since Dreamforce 2025, when Salesforce fully repositioned itself as an “agentic AI” platform with Agentforce as the poster child. ^[17]

Key themes:

• The stock has fallen from above $300 earlier in 2025 to the low‑$200s, even as broader tech and AI names rallied. ^[18]
• If Q3 numbers and AI commentary disappoint, the author warns CRM could drift closer to $200.
• On the flip side, strong Agentforce metrics could reinforce Salesforce’s leadership in AI‑powered customer platforms.
• The piece also notes that activist hedge fund Starboard Value boosted its CRM stake by about 50% during an earlier dip in August, signalling some sophisticated investors still see value. ^[19]

Put together, the Nov 28–29 analysis flow sets up a classic tension for the week ahead:

Is Salesforce just a slower‑growing, mature SaaS name trading at a fair multiple—or an underpriced AI platform with a second growth engine in Agentforce?

4. Sentiment Check: Social Media, Partners, and Jim Cramer

Social chatter: divided, but focused on earnings and AI

A QuiverQuant “DiscussionTracker” summary posted November 28 highlights how fragmented sentiment has become: ^[20]

• Many posts focus on CRM’s 30–32% year‑to‑date slide and frustration at the persistent downtrend.
• Several users point to cautious enterprise AI spending and broad IT budget pressures as reasons for the slump.
• There’s growing buzz about the December 3 earnings report, with some traders looking for a relief bounce and others bracing for another leg down.
• Social discussions frequently mention analyst price targets in the ~$300+ range, and debate whether they’re still realistic given recent performance.

In short: no clear consensus, but almost everyone agrees Q3 is a make‑or‑break moment for the near‑term narrative.

Partner checks: demand “remains robust” despite AI noise

On November 29, Insider Monkey reported on a Cantor Fitzgerald note after talks with Salesforce implementation partners. ^[21]

Highlights:

• Three of four partners said they met their Q3 targets and remain on track for full‑year goals.
• The fourth partner missed Q3 but is now seeing double‑digit bookings growth in Q4.
• Crucially, partners “do not see any evidence” that AI‑native startups are stealing Salesforce customers or deals.
• Cantor reiterated an Overweight rating and a $325 price target.

This directly counters the idea that AI disruptors are already eating Salesforce’s lunch, at least on the ground with partners.

Jim Cramer: “Haters will be haters”

Also on November 29, a widely shared Jim Cramer clip made the rounds. Asked about Salesforce trading near its lows, Cramer argued that whatever “disaster” investors fear is already priced in and said that at around $230 he isn’t abandoning the stock, adding that “haters will be haters, but I think it’s fine.” ^[22]

Whether you agree with him or not, the comment underscores how sentiment has swung from euphoria (above $300) to grudging defensiveness.

5. Q3 FY 2026 Preview: What Wall Street Expects

Salesforce will report fiscal Q3 2026 results on Wednesday, December 3, after the market close, with a conference call to follow. ^[23]

From company guidance and analyst previews (many published Nov 27–29), the setup looks like this:

Company guidance (Q3 FY26)

From Zacks’ detailed preview (via Finviz): ^[24]

• Revenue:
  • Company guidance: $10.24–$10.29 billion
  • Midpoint: $10.265 billion
• Non‑GAAP EPS:
  • Guidance: $2.84–$2.86

Consensus expectations

Across Zacks, Visible Alpha (via S&P Global), and other previews: ^[25]

• Revenue consensus: about $10.26–$10.30 billion, implying ~8.7–8.8% YoY growth.
• Non‑GAAP EPS consensus:$2.85, around 18% growth vs last year’s Q3.

Recent previews also emphasize:

• Salesforce has beaten EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of about 3%. ^[26]
• Subscription and support revenue is expected to remain the main growth driver, with platform, data and AI products leading within that mix. ^[27]

What investors will focus on beyond the headline numbers

Given the Nov 28–30 commentary, expect the call to revolve around:

1. AI / Agentforce metrics
   • Updated ARR for Data Cloud + Agentforce, beyond the $1.2B figure cited in Q2 and recent articles. ^[28]
   • Number of customers actively using AI agents in production.
   • Early ROI / productivity cases that prove AI is driving incremental demand, not just “nice‑to‑have” features.
2. Growth vs the 10% “line in the sand”
   • Whether Salesforce can show a believable path from ~9% growth now to the double‑digit growth management promised at Dreamforce. At the October Investor Day, Salesforce laid out a FY2030 revenue target of $60+ billion with a 10% organic CAGR from FY26–FY30. ^[29]
3. Margins and sustainability
   • Non‑GAAP operating margin already sits in the mid‑30s. Investors will ask whether this is:
     • A structurally higher level thanks to efficiencies and scale, or
     • Temporarily elevated because of cost cuts that might pressure growth down the road.
4. Macro commentary
   • Management’s take on IT spending, especially large transformational deals.
   • Any color on how tariffs, FX, and political uncertainty are affecting deal cycles.

6. Analyst Targets and Long‑Term Forecasts Published Nov 28–30

Street consensus: sizable upside from current levels

Different data providers show slightly different numbers, but they all tell a similar story.

• TipRanks (as of late November):
  • Average 12‑month target:$324.49
  • High/low: $430 / $221
  • Implied upside: ~42% from roughly $228.15 at the time. ^[30]
• MarketBeat:
  • Average target: about $322.86 based on 39 analysts.
  • High: $430; low: $221.
  • Implied upside: nearly 40% from the low‑$230s. ^[31]
• TickerNerd aggregation:
  • Median target:$331.00 (range $221–$430).
  • Overall rating: “Strong Buy” (8.6/10), with 40 Buy, 13 Hold, 1 Sell ratings. ^[32]

A November 28 piece from 24/7 Wall St. goes further out on the time horizon: ^[33]

• Confirms the median Street target around $324.49 (about 42% upside).
• Adds its own end‑2025 price target of $302 (~32% upside vs current levels).
• Projects a potential 2030 price near $493.80, more than 100% above today’s price, assuming steady EPS growth and execution.
• Flags the departure of long‑time CFO Amy Weaver and the hand‑off to Robin Washington (now President & Co‑CFO) as a key risk, but notes Salesforce’s strong cash position and long track record of accretive acquisitions.

Net read from late‑November forecasts:

Even after this year’s drawdown, Wall Street is still modeling mid‑ to high‑single‑digit revenue growth, high‑20s to mid‑30s margins, and 30–40% stock upside over 12 months—if Salesforce can keep AI momentum and avoid another guidance reset.

7. Valuation Snapshot vs. Narrative

Putting the numbers and narratives together:

• Fundamentals:
  • High‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit revenue growth.
  • Mid‑30s non‑GAAP operating margin. ^[34]
  • Strong free‑cash‑flow generation (30%+ FCF margin in FY25). ^[35]
• Valuation:
  • Trailing P/E ~33.5; forward P/E ~19.
  • Sales multiple near 5–6x, below historical levels and below many AI‑hyped peers. ^[36]
• Narrative headwinds (from Barron’s, Seeking Alpha, social chatter):
  • Fear that AI will flatten or compress CRM economics. ^[37]
  • Concerns around slowing core growth and tough comparisons in a saturated enterprise market.
  • Worry that Salesforce’s AI story is “too little, too late” vs infrastructure names like Nvidia and platform rivals like Microsoft or Oracle. ^[38]
• Narrative tailwinds (from GuruFocus, Zacks, Cantor, Cramer):
  • Evidence that AI ARR is already sizable ($1.2B+) and growing triple‑digits, with thousands of active AI deals. ^[39]
  • Partner feedback that demand remains steady and AI startups aren’t meaningfully displacing Salesforce in deals. ^[40]
  • Valuation screens and DCFs that suggest shares are priced closer to a bear case than a base case. ^[41]

Heading into December 1, that mix leaves Salesforce in the classic “show me” zone: the next set of numbers and AI metrics need to validate the bulls’ thesis or the bears could get another leg lower.

8. Key Things to Watch Before and After the Open

If you’re following CRM into the December 1 session and the December 3 earnings report, here are the practical checkpoints drawn from late‑November analysis:

1. Pre‑market and early‑session reaction
   • Futures / pre‑market moves in big software and AI names as investors digest Black Friday/Cyber Monday data and macro headlines. ^[42]
   • Any analyst rating or target changes published Monday morning referencing the holiday data or updated AI views.
2. Into the December 3 print
   • Whether the stock holds the ~$220 support area highlighted by multiple commentators as the rough prior 52‑week low. ^[43]
   • Options pricing and implied move around earnings (to gauge how much surprise the market is pricing in).
3. On the Q3 earnings call
   • Updated AI ARR and deal metrics (Data Cloud + Agentforce).
   • Any changes to FY 2026 or FY 2030 targets, which were last set at $60B+ revenue and 10% organic CAGR at Dreamforce’s investor day. ^[44]
   • Management’s tone on enterprise IT budgets and whether AI is accelerating or delaying big CRM transformations.

9. Bottom Line (and a Quick Disclaimer)

From November 28–30, 2025, the story around Salesforce (CRM) has crystallized into three main threads:

1. Macro & holiday demand look resilient but not euphoric, with Salesforce’s own data showing record online spending driven partly by AI‑powered shopping tools—and a mix shift toward higher prices and fewer units. ^[45]
2. AI is both Salesforce’s biggest opportunity and its biggest overhang, with one camp arguing Agentforce and Data Cloud are already meaningful and undervalued, and another warning that slowing growth and competitive pressure justify caution. ^[46]
3. Valuation sits in a “prove‑it” zone: not cheap enough to ignore the risks, not expensive enough to rule out strong upside if the company can re‑accelerate growth into the low double digits. ^[47]

Nothing in this article is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. It’s a synthesis of recent public reporting and analysis to help you understand what the market will be watching as Salesforce heads into December 1, 2025 and its Q3 earnings later in the week.

References

1. www.digrin.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. m.ca.investing.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. apnews.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. m.ca.investing.com, 13. m.ca.investing.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. www.barrons.com, 16. seekingalpha.com, 17. www.salesforceben.com, 18. www.salesforceben.com, 19. www.salesforceben.com, 20. www.quiverquant.com, 21. finviz.com, 22. finviz.com, 23. investor.salesforce.com, 24. finviz.com, 25. www.spglobal.com, 26. finviz.com, 27. www.spglobal.com, 28. m.ca.investing.com, 29. www.salesforce.com, 30. www.tipranks.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. tickernerd.com, 33. 247wallst.com, 34. m.ca.investing.com, 35. m.ca.investing.com, 36. stockanalysis.com, 37. www.barrons.com, 38. m.ca.investing.com, 39. m.ca.investing.com, 40. finviz.com, 41. finviz.com, 42. www.investopedia.com, 43. www.investing.com, 44. www.salesforce.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. m.ca.investing.com, 47. stockanalysis.com