Sanmina Corporation (NASDAQ: SANM) stock fell sharply in Tuesday trading, even as the company unveiled two growth-oriented moves aimed at the U.S. power-grid equipment market: a new, state-of-the-art energy-focused factory planned for Houston and a transformer co-design agreement with Croatia’s Končar Group. At last check on Dec. 16, SANM shares were down about 8.85% at $144.17, after swinging between an intraday high of $159.98 and a low of $144.17.
The market’s reaction highlights a familiar tension in “build for the future” announcements: investors may like the destination, but they immediately start interrogating the travel budget—capital spending, cash flow timing, and execution risk—especially when production is not expected to begin until 2027.
What Sanmina announced today: a Houston factory and a Končar partnership
New Houston factory aimed at U.S. energy infrastructure
In a Dec. 16 press release, Sanmina said it is expanding its Energy business with a new facility in Houston, Texas. The factory is intended to serve the U.S. energy market and produce equipment including medium-voltage distribution transformers, instrument transformers, and switchgear. Sanmina said production is expected to start in 2027, and it already has initial customer commitments. [1]
Sanmina Chairman and CEO Jure Sola framed the move as a strategic fit, arguing that the “transmission, distribution and storage of electric power” aligns with Sanmina’s engineering and manufacturing strengths—language that effectively positions this as an adjacency play rather than a leap into an unrelated industry. [2]
Agreement with Končar to co-design a medium-voltage transformer
Alongside the Houston buildout, Sanmina announced it has entered into an agreement with Končar – Electrical Industry Inc. (often styled “KONČAR”), focused on co-designing a custom medium-voltage transformer for Sanmina and exploring broader collaboration in support of Končar’s U.S. market ambitions. [3]
Končar itself confirmed the deal in a disclosure posted by the Zagreb Stock Exchange, describing the agreement as a way to jointly develop a customized medium-voltage transformer and explore additional opportunities to support Končar’s growth plans in the U.S. [4]
Why did Sanmina stock drop today?
On the surface, “new factory + new product partnership + customer commitments” reads like upbeat industrial news. So why did the stock sell off?
One widely circulated explanation is that investors immediately translated “factory begins production in 2027” into “spending and working-capital drag arrives earlier,” and they don’t love uncertainty around how much cash gets tied up before revenue shows up.
A same-day analysis from The Motley Fool pointed to a potential cash-flow concern, citing forecasts compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence that suggest Sanmina’s free cash flow could turn negative—figures the author characterized as potential cash “burn” in 2025 and 2026. [5]
That doesn’t prove the market is “right” (stocks are famously moody animals), but it does map cleanly onto the kind of questions professional investors ask immediately when a company announces a major capacity build:
- How much upfront capex is required, and over what schedule?
- How much inventory and receivables build is needed before sales scale?
- Does the project change leverage, buyback capacity, or M&A flexibility?
The price action also suggests some traders may be locking in gains or de-risking after a strong run earlier in 2025, making the stock more sensitive to any headline that smells like “spend now, benefits later.”
The bigger context: Sanmina is reshaping its portfolio around AI infrastructure and energy
Today’s energy push is happening against the backdrop of a much larger strategic shift: Sanmina’s accelerated entry into cloud and AI infrastructure manufacturing.
ZT Systems deal: closed Oct. 27, 2025
Sanmina completed its acquisition of the ZT Systems data center infrastructure manufacturing business from AMD on Oct. 27, 2025—an event the company described as “transformational” and tied directly to accelerating its presence in the Cloud and AI end-market. [6]
AMD, for its part, said it retained ZT Systems’ rack-scale AI solutions design and customer enablement expertise while divesting the manufacturing business to Sanmina, and it highlighted a strategic partnership that makes Sanmina a preferred NPI (new product introduction) manufacturing partner for AMD’s cloud rack and cluster-scale AI solutions. [7]
What the SEC filing reveals about consideration and financing
In Sanmina’s Form 8-K covering the ZT Systems closing, the company disclosed closing consideration of $2.4 billion in cash (subject to customary adjustments) plus 1,151,052 shares of Sanmina common stock valued at $150 million, with up to $450 million of additional contingent cash consideration tied to performance metrics over the three-year period after closing. [8]
The same filing also described debt financing used in connection with the acquisition, including $1.4 billion under a Term Loan A facility and $800 million under a Term Loan B facility. [9]
Put simply: Sanmina is in a phase where it’s funding major strategic moves (AI infrastructure scale + energy equipment manufacturing capacity). That can be exciting—and it can make the stock more reactive to cash-flow narratives.
Sanmina’s latest results and outlook: what management guided for fiscal 2026
Sanmina’s most recent major financial update came with its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 results (released Nov. 3, 2025).
Key highlights the company provided:
- Q4 fiscal 2025 revenue: $2.1 billion
- Q4 non-GAAP operating margin: 6.0%
- Q4 non-GAAP diluted EPS: $1.67
- Fiscal 2025 revenue: $8.1 billion
- Fiscal 2025 non-GAAP operating margin: 5.7%
- Fiscal 2025 non-GAAP diluted EPS: $6.04 [10]
For the fiscal first quarter ending Dec. 27, 2025, the company guided to:
- Revenue: $2.9 billion to $3.2 billion
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS: $1.95 to $2.25 [11]
Those numbers matter on Dec. 16 because they shape the near-term baseline investors are using while they evaluate newer, longer-dated initiatives like the Houston buildout.
Sanmina stock forecasts today: what analysts and research platforms are saying
Because “forecast” can mean a few different things (earnings, price targets, ratings, factor models), here’s the cleanest snapshot of what was circulating on or immediately around Dec. 16, 2025:
Price targets: wide range depending on dataset
- Fintel lists an average one-year price target of $192.10 (range: $181.80 to $210.00), with a record date shown as Dec. 6, 2025. [12]
- Bank of America (BofA) raised its price target to $180 from $150 and kept a Neutral rating after Sanmina’s “strong” fiscal Q4 report, citing positives (including communications improving and ZT Systems’ rack-assembly capability) balanced by macro uncertainty and integration/ramp execution. [13]
- MarketBeat, in its forecast framing, shows a more cautious implied view (it notes predicted downside in its 12-month forecast language and displays a “buy/hold/strong buy” mix across three analysts). [14]
Why the mismatch? These services often pull from different analyst universes, update on different schedules, and may include stale targets alongside newer ones. For readers, the practical takeaway is that “the Street” is not one voice—it’s a noisy crowd with spreadsheets.
Growth-style analysis published on Dec. 16
A Zacks Equity Research screen (republished on Dec. 16) included Sanmina among “best growth stocks,” pointing to factors like a favorable PEG ratio and upward estimate revisions as part of its growth characterization. [15]
Cash-flow watchpoints raised in same-day commentary
The Motley Fool’s Dec. 16 note emphasized the potential for negative free cash flow based on S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts cited in the piece—explicitly connecting the timing of major investments to investor anxiety. [16]
What investors will watch next for SANM stock
From here, the story splits into three timelines—near-term execution, medium-term integration, and long-term capacity payoff:
Near term (weeks):
- Any added detail on expected spending cadence for the Houston facility (the market is clearly hungry for numbers, not just intent).
- Sanmina’s next earnings update for signs that margins and working capital are behaving.
Medium term (quarters):
- Integration progress of the ZT Systems manufacturing business and any commentary on customer ramps, operational efficiencies, and debt/interest burden—topics already embedded in public filings and analyst notes. [17]
Long term (2027 and beyond):
- Whether the Houston energy factory reaches production as planned and translates “customer commitments” into durable, profitable revenue. [18]
Bottom line: Dec. 16 was a “capex headline” day for Sanmina stock
Sanmina’s Dec. 16 announcements were strategic and directional: deepen U.S. energy infrastructure manufacturing exposure via a new Houston facility and accelerate product entry through a transformer co-design partnership with Končar. [19]
But the market treated the news as a financing-and-cash-flow puzzle first, growth story second—sending SANM down roughly 9% on the day as investors weighed the cost of building future capacity against the certainty of near-term cash demands. [20]
References
1. ir.sanmina.com, 2. ir.sanmina.com, 3. ir.sanmina.com, 4. eho.zse.hr, 5. www.fool.com, 6. ir.sanmina.com, 7. ir.amd.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. ir.sanmina.com, 11. www.prnewswire.com, 12. fintel.io, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.fool.com, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. ir.sanmina.com, 19. ir.sanmina.com, 20. www.fool.com
