Updated: 4 December 2025 – Not investment advice. Do your own research.
Santos share price today and key valuation metrics
Santos Limited (ASX: STO) is trading just below A$6.60 per share on 4 December 2025, after drifting sideways to slightly lower since the collapse of a proposed $18.7 billion takeover earlier in the year. Historical data for 4 December shows a close around A$6.60, with recent days oscillating in a tight A$6.50–6.65 band. [1]
Over the last year, Santos has been a mild underperformer versus the broader Australian market, with the share price down by low single digits while the ASX 200 has pushed to record highs. Macro models from Trading Economics estimate the stock is about 2–3% lower year‑on‑year and project a drift toward A$6.30 by the end of this quarter and around A$5.90 in one year, implying modest downside from today’s level. [2]
Key snapshot numbers as of early December 2025:
- Market capitalisation: ~A$21.2 billion at a share price around A$6.60. [3]
- 52‑week trading range: roughly A$5.20–8.06 per share, putting today’s price in the lower half of the range. [4]
- Trailing P/E ratio: around 13–14x earnings. [5]
- Dividend yield: current cash yield about 5.7–6.4%, based on annual dividends per share of ~A$0.37–0.41. [6]
Santos has a long dividend history. The 2024 final dividend was cut by more than 40% (to 10.3 US cents per share) as profits fell with lower commodity prices, but management reiterated a plan to return 60% of free cash flow to shareholders from 2026 onwards, up from 40%. [7]
For investors, that combination – mid‑single‑digit yield, mid‑teens earnings multiple and stalled share price – sets the stage for the bigger story: a failed mega‑takeover, big projects about to start up, and increasingly loud debates around climate risk and governance.
From record takeover bid to “what now?”: ADNOC’s $18.7 billion offer collapses
The defining narrative for Santos in 2025 has been the on‑again, off‑again courtship by a consortium led by Abu Dhabi’s national oil company ADNOC via its investment arm XRG.
How the deal unfolded
- June 2025: Santos confirms it has received a non‑binding indicative proposal from an ADNOC‑led consortium valuing the company at US$18.7 billion (A$36.4 billion including debt) – about A$8.89 per share, a hefty premium to the pre‑bid price. [8]
- June–August: Santos grants exclusive due diligence, repeatedly extending deadlines as the consortium works through regulatory and political complexity across Australia, Papua New Guinea and the United States. [9]
- September 17, 2025: Just days before a binding offer is due, ADNOC/XRG withdraws the bid, citing inability to agree commercial terms and risk‑sharing around approvals and domestic gas commitments. [10]
The market’s verdict was brutal. On the day the deal collapse was confirmed, Santos shares plunged as much as 13–14%, hitting their lowest level since June despite a rising ASX 200. [11]
The failed ADNOC bid followed:
- a rejected Harbour Energy offer in 2018, and
- abandoned merger talks with Woodside Energy in early 2024. [12]
Three failed transactions in seven years have fuelled investor scepticism about Santos’ board and deal‑making strategy, and put management under pressure to deliver value without a takeover premium.
Several large shareholders and commentators have floated options including:
- Asset sales (for example, partial sell‑downs of LNG interests),
- a structural split of LNG versus domestic gas assets, and
- potential leadership change if the share price and valuation gap persist. [13]
For now, Santos remains a stand‑alone mid‑cap energy producer with no live takeover bid on the table.
Financial performance: softer profits but strong cash generation
2024 full‑year results: lower profits, leaner company
For the year to December 2024, Santos reported:
- Underlying profit: around US$1.22 billion, down ~16% year‑on‑year and below analyst expectations.
- Production:87.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), with declines from mature fields offset partly by growth projects.
- Final dividend cut: from 17.5 US cents to 10.3 US cents, a 41% reduction, as weaker oil and gas prices and lower LNG volumes compressed margins. [14]
Management responded with a more aggressive capital discipline and a promise that, once current projects are online, at least 60% of free cash flow will be returned to shareholders – via dividends and possibly buybacks – from 2026 onwards. [15]
1H 2025: solid results despite floods and price headwinds
The 2025 half‑year results released in August paint a picture of a business that’s bruised but far from broken:
- Sales revenue: ~US$2.6 billion, down only modestly on the prior year despite softer realised prices. [16]
- EBITDAX (cash earnings before exploration): about US$1.8 billion. [17]
- Underlying profit:US$508 million. [18]
- Production:44.1 mmboe in the half. [19]
- Free cash flow: third‑party analyses estimate roughly US$1.1 billion of free cash flow in H1, with unit costs squeezed down to around US$7.00–7.40 per boe, helped by structural cost savings. [20]
Flooding in the Cooper Basin shut in more than 200 wells and compressors, but Santos’ diversified portfolio – particularly PNG LNG and Western Australian gas – helped offset lost volumes. [21]
Q3 2025: Barossa issues force another guidance cut
In mid‑October, Santos released its Q3 2025 report and accompanying guidance update. Key points:
- Q3 sales revenue: about US$1.13 billion, down 11% year‑on‑year, slightly below Visible Alpha consensus. [22]
- Full‑year production guidance narrowed and cut for the second time in 2025 to 89–91 mmboe, from 90–95 mmboe previously, largely because of ramp‑up delays at the Barossa project and lingering Cooper Basin flood impacts. [23]
- Sales volume guidance trimmed to 93–95 mmboe from 92–99 mmboe. [24]
The immediate culprit was a software problem in the safety systems on the BW Opal FPSO serving Barossa, which triggered an unplanned shutdown of roughly two weeks in September and slowed the ramp‑up schedule. [25]
Despite these hits, investors focused on the bigger picture: both Barossa LNG and Pikka Phase 1 in Alaska are nearly complete and expected to increase group production by around 30% by 2027, a step change that, if executed well, could transform Santos’ cash‑flow profile. [26]
Growth engine: Barossa LNG, Pikka oil and Narrabri gas
Santos’ investment story now hinges on a trio of major projects.
Barossa LNG and Darwin LNG restart
The Barossa gas and condensate project, offshore northern Australia, is Santos’ biggest near‑term growth driver:
- Total capital cost guidance sits around US$4.5–4.6 billion. [27]
- As of mid‑2025, the project was over 95% complete, with first LNG still expected in the December 2025 quarter, despite the Q3 shutdown. [28]
- Barossa will backfill the Darwin LNG plant, which has already reached ready‑for‑start‑up status, enabling exports as soon as Barossa gas flows. [29]
Santos has also signed a mid‑term LNG supply deal with QatarEnergy Trading, under which it will supply 0.5 million tonnes per annum of LNG from 2026 for two years, leveraging a portfolio that includes Barossa and PNG LNG. [30]
Critics note that Barossa gas is CO₂‑rich, making it one of the more carbon‑intensive LNG projects globally without mitigation. Santos argues that CCS at Moomba and potential future CO₂ storage options will help manage lifecycle emissions, but this remains a focal point for ESG‑minded investors.
Pikka Phase 1 in Alaska
On the other side of the world, the Pikka Phase 1 oil development on Alaska’s North Slope is nearing the finish line:
- By late Q3 2025, Pikka Phase 1 was more than 95% complete, with 22 wells drilled, including record extended‑reach wells. [31]
- Santos has accelerated guidance for first oil to Q1 2026, ahead of the original mid‑2026 timeline, helped by early completion of a 120‑mile pipeline and key processing modules. [32]
Together, Barossa and Pikka are expected to lift Santos’ production by about 30% by 2027, with management signalling that the combination should materially expand free cash flow even at conservative oil and gas price assumptions. [33]
Narrabri gas project: domestic supply, fierce opposition
Closer to home, the A$3.6 billion Narrabri coal seam gas project in New South Wales remains politically and socially contentious but strategically important:
- In May 2025, Australia’s National Native Title Tribunal ruled that Narrabri can proceed, concluding that energy security and domestic supply benefits outweigh serious climate and cultural heritage concerns, provided gas is reserved for domestic use and additional safeguards are implemented. [34]
- The project allows up to 850 wells in and around the culturally significant Pilliga forest, on land subject to claims by the Gomeroi people, who have strongly opposed the development. [35]
- In August, Santos signed an agreement to supply up to 20 petajoules of gas per year from Narrabri to French utility ENGIE, with all gas committed to the Australian domestic market. The deal is conditional on a final investment decision (FID), which Santos has said it hopes to make by the end of 2025. [36]
Farmer groups in New South Wales, as well as environmental organisations, are still exploring legal and regulatory avenues to challenge Narrabri and associated pipelines. [37]
Energy transition and ESG: Moomba CCS, Beetaloo fracking and carbon credits
Santos is trying to straddle two worlds: traditional fossil fuels and low‑carbon ambitions.
Moomba CCS: carbon credits and controversy
The Moomba Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) project in South Australia’s Cooper Basin is central to Santos’ energy‑transition pitch:
- Phase 1 began injecting CO₂ in late 2024 and, by its first full year of operations, had safely stored about 1.3 million tonnes of CO₂‑equivalent, with a nameplate capacity of 1.7 million tonnes per year. [38]
- In late 2025, the project received a record allocation of 614,133 Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) from the Clean Energy Regulator – the largest single issuance for a project of this kind in Australia. [39]
Santos argues that CCS at Moomba and similar projects offer a “fast, scalable and cost‑effective” emissions reduction pathway for hard‑to‑abate sectors, and could underpin a multi‑hundred‑billion‑dollar carbon industry over coming decades. [40]
Critics, however, remain sceptical of CCS economics and permanence, pointing to past underperformance from other large projects and warning that heavy reliance on CCS could delay genuine decarbonisation. For Santos, Moomba ACCUs are both a revenue opportunity and a reputational stress test.
Beetaloo Basin fracking and NT water concerns
At the same time, Santos is expanding unconventional gas exploration in the Beetaloo Basin in the Northern Territory:
- Company documents outline plans for a drilling appraisal program of up to 12 shale gas wells at Tanumbirini Station starting in 2026, to assess commercial viability. [41]
- Environmentalists and local groups fear this could trigger a large‑scale fracking boom, with some analyses suggesting that full development of the Beetaloo could result in over 1.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ over 25 years and potentially thousands of wells drilled through critical aquifers. [42]
The Northern Territory relies on groundwater for roughly 90% of its water supply, and experts have warned that fracking‑related contamination or over‑extraction could pose “major risk” to communities and pastoralists. [43]
Put bluntly: Santos is positioning itself as an energy transition player through CCS while simultaneously expanding some of the most contested gas and fracking projects in Australia. ESG‑focused investors are weighing these conflicting signals carefully.
Leadership and governance: CFO exit adds to investor nerves
Corporate governance has become another flashpoint.
In October 2025, Santos announced that Chief Financial Officer Sherry Duhe had resigned after just one year in the role. Deputy CFO Lachlan Harris was appointed acting CFO. [44]
Analysts noted several red flags:
- Duhe was widely seen as a potential successor to long‑standing CEO Kevin Gallagher; her abrupt departure, without a detailed explanation, raised questions about internal succession planning.
- The exit came just weeks after the ADNOC/XRG consortium walked away from its takeover bid, and as Santos faces its most “acute balance sheet position” ahead of Barossa and Pikka start‑up. [45]
Gallagher has publicly stated he has no plans to retire, emphasising that cash flow should improve significantly once Barossa and Pikka are online. [46]
For investors, the governance story sits alongside the operational one: three failed takeover attempts, a high‑stakes capex cycle, and leadership turnover at the top of the finance function.
What do analysts and models say about Santos stock?
If you ask 20 different models what Santos is worth, you get about 20 different answers. That’s where the fun – and the risk – lives.
Fundamental analyst consensus: upside, but no slam‑dunk
Across major broker and data platforms:
- Consensus 12‑month price target for Santos clusters around A$7.6–7.7 per share, implying roughly 15–20% upside from current levels. [47]
- The average recommendation is in the “Buy” to “Moderate Buy” range, with most analysts positive but a handful cautious or negative. [48]
Selected broker views:
- Macquarie: “Outperform” rating with a 12‑month price target around A$8.15–8.60, pointing to production growth from Barossa and Pikka and a recovery in free cash flow as key catalysts. [49]
- JPMorgan: Recently resumed coverage with an “Overweight” rating and a price target of A$7.90 for December 2026, calling Santos its top pick in the Australian oil & gas sector and estimating ~22% upside. [50]
- Jarden: After the ADNOC bid collapse, downgraded Santos to “Underweight” and cut its 12‑month price target to A$7.05, citing concerns about deal execution and governance. [51]
- Broker consensus collated by MarketIndex shows an average target of about A$8.10, down from A$8.58 pre‑deal, and a consensus rating that has slipped from “Buy” toward “Hold” since September. [52]
On growth, Simply Wall St and other aggregators forecast:
- Earnings growth: roughly 12–13% per year over the next few years.
- Revenue growth: around 8–9% per year.
- Return on equity: rising toward 9% within three years. [53]
Those forecasts lean heavily on Barossa and Pikka delivering on time and budget, with Narrabri and CCS projects providing optionality rather than core value.
Quant and macro models: more cautious
Not all models are cheering.
- Trading Economics expects Santos to trade near A$6.30 by the end of this quarter and around A$5.92 in one year, implying mild downside. [54]
- Technical‑analysis site StockInvest currently labels Santos a short‑term “buy candidate”, noting positive moving‑average signals and low volatility, but projects that – based purely on recent price trends – the stock could drift 14% lower over the next three months, to somewhere between A$4.82 and A$5.81 with 90% probability. [55]
- OnInvest’s scorecard, Santos scores 6/7 with a “Buy” recommendation, citing “favourable performance,” “low risk” and “excellent dividends,” with a most recent quoted price around A$6.56. [56]
This split – fundamentals calling for upside, trend‑based models warning of drift – is exactly what you’d expect for a stock at an inflection point.
Key risks to the Santos investment case
Strip away the spreadsheets and buzzwords, and Santos’ risk profile boils down to a few big buckets:
- Commodity price risk
Lower oil and LNG prices have already pressured 2024–25 profits. If prices stay soft, the promised free‑cash‑flow boom from Barossa and Pikka could underwhelm. [57] - Project execution risk
Barossa has already suffered a two‑week shutdown from software issues; floods in the Cooper Basin disrupted production; and large projects are rarely drama‑free. Any significant cost blow‑outs or further delays would hammer both cash flow and credibility. [58] - Balance sheet and capital allocation
Santos is emerging from a heavy capex phase with big projects about to ramp up, just as its CFO departs and takeover options evaporate. A poorly timed downturn in prices, or mis‑judged capital returns, could strain the balance sheet. [59] - Regulatory and political risk
Narrabri’s approval required a tribunal to explicitly weigh climate harm against energy security; Beetaloo fracking faces intense scrutiny; and federal/state policies on gas and CCS are evolving quickly. Any tightening in approvals or carbon rules could hit project economics. [60] - ESG and reputational risk
For many institutional investors, heavy exposure to new gas fields and fracking – even with CCS – is a tough sell. If climate policy or investor sentiment shifts faster than expected, Santos’ valuation could remain anchored at a discount.
None of these are fatal on their own, but together they define the range of outcomes from “cash‑gushing LNG and oil champion” to “perpetual value trap in a shrinking fossil‑fuel box.”
Bottom line: Santos stock on 4 December 2025
As of 4 December 2025, Santos sits in a classic tension zone:
- The share price around A$6.60 bakes in the failure of the ADNOC bid and a decent dose of scepticism about governance and long‑term gas demand. [61]
- Fundamental analysts mostly see 15–20% upside over the next year, anchored in 30% production growth by 2027, a fatter free‑cash‑flow margin and a dividend stream north of 5%. [62]
- Trend‑based and macro models, along with some sceptical brokers, warn that price momentum and policy risk could drag the stock lower before any rerating arrives. [63]
For income‑oriented investors comfortable owning fossil‑fuel exposure, Santos offers:
- a relatively high, partially franked dividend yield,
- near‑term volume growth from Barossa and Pikka, and
- additional upside if management can unlock value from asset sales or strategic restructurings.
For ESG‑sensitive or risk‑averse investors, the combination of:
- contested projects at Narrabri and in the Beetaloo Basin,
- large CCS bets that still rely on supportive policy and carbon prices, and
- lingering governance doubts after multiple failed deals and a CFO exit
may be enough to keep Santos in the “too hard” basket.
References
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