Riyadh, January 5, 2026, 14:00 (GMT+3) — Regular session
- Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) was down 0.3% in mid-session trade after a sharp slide on Sunday.
- Crude prices stayed under pressure as traders weighed ample supply against geopolitical risks.
- Next catalysts include the Feb. 1 OPEC+ policy meeting and Aramco’s March 10 full-year results.
Saudi Arabian Oil Co shares were down 0.3% at 23.43 riyals by 2:00 p.m. in Riyadh, after trading between 23.29 and 23.55. The stock closed at 23.50 riyals in the previous session. 1
The move matters because Aramco is the Saudi market’s heavyweight and a proxy for oil-linked cash flow in the kingdom. Brent crude lost nearly 20% in 2025, a bruising run that has kept investors fixated on supply discipline and the outlook for state-linked spending. 2
Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index extended losses in early Monday trade, with Aramco among the drags as oil dipped again. A private-sector survey showed the kingdom’s non-oil business activity stayed in expansion in December but cooled to a four-month low, adding to the cautious tone. 3
Oil’s direction is still doing most of the work for the stock. Brent was down 0.4% at $60.52 a barrel by 0940 GMT as traders judged that ample global supply would cushion any short-term disruption risk tied to Venezuela. 4
That supply backdrop hardened after OPEC+ reaffirmed its output policy at the weekend. “Right now, oil markets are being driven less by supply–demand fundamentals and more by political uncertainty,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official. OPEC+ — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies including Russia — next meets on Feb. 1, the group said. 5
Aramco also flagged a smaller, domestic catalyst: the company will introduce a 98-octane gasoline grade in an initial rollout covering Riyadh, Jeddah and the Dammam area, with expansion depending on demand. Aramco said the retail price will be published on its website under the existing pricing framework. 6
The stock is also trading close to the bottom of its recent range. Aramco’s 52-week range runs from 23.04 to 28.35 riyals, leaving the shares near the low end as crude hovers around $60. 7
But the downside case is straightforward. If oversupply fears deepen and crude fails to hold current levels, investors may test how much of Aramco’s valuation is anchored to dividend expectations versus the commodity cycle.
Traders will also watch for signals on demand from Aramco’s official selling prices — the monthly prices it sets for many term customers — and for any shift in risk appetite across Gulf markets after two sessions of declines.
The next hard catalyst is March 10, when Aramco is scheduled to publish its full-year 2025 results. Investors will be looking for updates on payouts and spending plans that could reset expectations for the next quarter. 8
