RIYADH (Dec. 21, 2025) — Saudi equities opened the week on a cautiously positive note, with the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) closing up 0.33% at 10,484.59 as investors balanced an uptick in oil prices against shifting expectations for U.S. monetary policy in 2026. [1]
The session’s headline move was modest, but the underlying tape was busy: turnover hit about SAR 2.6 billion, while market leadership rotated toward selected gainers in materials, education, and specialty names. In parallel, the Nomu market rose, even as pockets of the smaller-cap universe flashed fresh stress signals. [2]
TASI snapshot: the key numbers from Sunday’s close
Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index ended the day 34.32 points higher at 10,484.59, with trading turnover at SR2.59 billion. [3]
Argaam’s market data showed the session’s full range, underscoring how tight the market remains near current levels:
- Open: 10,488.63
- High: 10,562.14
- Low: 10,472.88
- Value traded: 2,592,028,068 SAR
- Volume: 127,421,059 shares
- Transactions: 296,851
- Market cap: 3,038,554.17 million SAR (about SAR 3.04 trillion)
- YTD performance: -12.89% [4]
That year-to-date drawdown remains a key psychological overhang for positioning into year-end, especially as global rates and energy prices continue to drive cross-asset sentiment in the Gulf.
What moved the Saudi market on Dec. 21: oil prices and the global rate narrative
Two macro forces dominated the day’s backdrop:
1) Oil prices firmed up.
Reuters reported that Gulf equities broadly benefited from Friday’s gains in oil, with prices supported by concerns about potential supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty. [5]
2) Investors leaned into the “rate-cuts in 2026” story.
In the same Reuters report, traders were described as betting on at least two 25-basis-point U.S. rate cuts in 2026, a narrative that matters disproportionately for Gulf markets because most regional currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar. [6]
Saudi monetary conditions remain aligned with that external anchor. The Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) listed the Repo Rate at 4.25% and the Reverse Repo Rate at 3.75% (December 2025 readings), keeping domestic liquidity conditions closely linked to the global rates cycle. [7]
Heavyweights were steady — Aramco and Al Rajhi helped keep the index green
In Saudi Arabia, the tone was supportive but not euphoric: Reuters said the Saudi benchmark gained about 0.3%, led by Saudi Aramco and Al Rajhi Bank. [8]
Argaam’s market note put prices on those moves, showing Saudi Aramco at SAR 23.83 and Al Rajhi at SAR 96.05, both up by less than 1% on the day. [9]
That combination—index-heavy names inching up while selective midcaps make sharper moves—is a recurring late-2025 pattern in Tadawul: it keeps the benchmark stable, but it also hides meaningful dispersion under the surface.
Leaders and laggards: where the action was on the main market
Top gainers were led by Nama Chemicals and fresh momentum names
Arab News listed Nama Chemicals as the best-performing main-market stock, up 9.98% to SR22.38. [10]
It also highlighted Al Masar Al Shamil Education, up 9.15% to SR23.85, and Saudi Paper Manufacturing, up 8.42% to SR57.95. [11]
Argaam’s session recap similarly pointed to Nama Chemicals as the day’s top gainer and noted strength across a cluster of widely followed names (including ACWA Power, Riyad Bank, Tawuniya, Riyadh Cables, Almarai, Aldrees, and Astra) finishing in positive territory. [12]
The day’s weakest names included Canadian Medical Center and Kingdom Holding
On the downside, Arab News cited Canadian Medical Center falling 6.37% to SR6.03, while Kingdom Holding declined 3.16% to SR8.28. [13]
Sector map: where the market was actually rotating
Argaam’s sector closing data showed a broad, slightly positive day—yet the leaders were not the usual suspects alone.
Some notable sector moves included:
- Pharma, Biotech & Life Sciences: +2.99%
- Capital Goods: +1.63%
- Insurance: +0.88%
- Utilities: +0.85%
- Energy: +0.74%
- Financial Services: -0.26% (a rare soft spot versus the broader tape) [14]
This kind of breadth—healthcare and capital goods pushing higher while financial services dips—suggests investors are not simply “buying beta.” Instead, the tape looks more like a tactical rotation, with money flowing to specific earnings narratives and event-driven names.
Corporate and deal headlines: contracts, dividends, and market structure signals
Theeb signs a SAR 110.4 million contract starting in 2026
Arab News reported that Theeb Rent a Car signed a long-term vehicle leasing services contract valued at SR110.4 million with Hungerstation, under which Theeb will lease 2,000 vehicles for four years starting from 2026. The company said the deal is expected to have a positive impact on financials beginning in Q1 2026. [15]
Even with that forward-looking catalyst, the stock ended the day lower, with Arab News noting Theeb fell 0.79% to SR37.80. [16]
Banan Real Estate declares a 3% cash dividend, with 2026 dates set
In a separate corporate action, Argaam reported that Banan Real Estate declared a 3% cash dividend for H1 2025, equal to SAR 0.3 per share, with a record date of Jan. 11, 2026 and payment date of Jan. 28, 2026. [17]
This is the kind of detail investors watch closely in Tadawul late in the year: dividend timelines can influence short-term positioning and fund flows, particularly among income-sensitive local portfolios.
Negotiated deals worth SAR 31.9 million in Astra Industrial and SMC
Argaam also reported that Tadawul saw two negotiated deals on Dec. 21 involving Astra Industrial and Specialized Medical Co. (SMC), together worth SAR 31.9 million. The note emphasized that negotiated deals are arranged separately from the on-screen market price and do not directly affect the last traded price or the benchmark indices. [18]
For market watchers, block-style activity like this is often read as a signal of institutional repositioning—especially when it appears alongside a relatively quiet benchmark move.
Nomu rises, but new lows underline risk in smaller names
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu rose on the day, with Arab News reporting it gained 100.37 points to 23,454.65. [19]
But beneath that headline, Argaam flagged a more sobering detail: five Nomu-listed companies hit their lowest prices since debut during the Dec. 21 session, including Arabica Star, Tibbiyah, Neft Alsharq, Munawla, and Multi Business, with year-to-date declines in several cases ranging from about -31% to -60%. [20]
This divergence—Nomu index up, yet individual names printing fresh all-time lows—captures a real feature of the current Saudi microcap landscape: liquidity can be thin, dispersion can be extreme, and “index up” does not necessarily mean “risk is on” across the board.
Valuation and outlook: what analysts were highlighting on Dec. 21
A valuation snapshot for the broader market
Argaam’s market indicators for Dec. 21 put the TASI P/E (TTM) at 17.87x (excluding Aramco), with price-to-book at 1.98x and an indicated dividend yield of 3.36%. [21]
Those numbers matter because they frame the market’s “default expectation”: not distressed, but not priced for effortless upside either—especially with oil still a key swing factor.
Forward multiples: what the 2026 consensus is implicitly pricing
In brokerage research dated Dec. 21, Al Rajhi Capital published a grid of forward valuation multiples (based on Bloomberg/consensus-style data), offering a practical window into what the market is already discounting for 2026 across key Saudi names.
Examples from that table include:
- Saudi Aramco:2026E P/E ~14.2x, 2026E EV/EBITDA ~6.5x
- ACWA Power:2026E P/E ~34.9x, 2026E EV/EBITDA ~26.0x
- Tadawul Group:2026E P/E ~21.6x, 2026E EV/EBITDA ~18.0x [22]
Read plainly: the market is still willing to pay a premium for select growth/utility-style franchises and capital-market infrastructure plays, while pricing large energy exposure more conservatively. That spread is also a reminder that “Saudi stocks” are not one trade—Tadawul in 2025 has become a mix of old-economy cyclicals, state-linked megacaps, and newer growth listings that behave very differently.
What investors will watch next in the Saudi Stock Exchange
As the final stretch of 2025 begins, the near-term direction for Tadawul is likely to hinge on a few interacting variables:
- Oil price direction and supply-risk headlines, which still act as a sentiment lever for Saudi and broader GCC equities. [23]
- Signals on U.S. policy rates, given the market’s sensitivity to the Fed path via currency pegs and local monetary alignment. [24]
- Company-specific catalysts—contracts (like Theeb’s), dividend schedules (like Banan’s), and block/negotiated deal activity that can hint at institutional flows. [25]
- Risk appetite in Nomu, where new lows in individual names can sometimes foreshadow broader sentiment shifts among retail-heavy segments of the market. [26]
For now, Dec. 21 delivered a familiar late-year Saudi pattern: the benchmark held steady-to-higher, heavyweight support did its job, and the real story played out in the crosscurrents—rotations, event-driven pops, and a parallel market sending mixed messages. [27]
References
1. www.arabnews.com, 2. www.arabnews.com, 3. www.arabnews.com, 4. www.argaam.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.sama.gov.sa, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.argaam.com, 10. www.arabnews.com, 11. www.arabnews.com, 12. www.argaam.com, 13. www.arabnews.com, 14. www.argaam.com, 15. www.arabnews.com, 16. www.arabnews.com, 17. www.argaam.com, 18. www.argaam.com, 19. www.arabnews.com, 20. www.argaam.com, 21. www.argaam.com, 22. www.alrajhi-capital.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.arabnews.com, 26. www.argaam.com, 27. www.arabnews.com
