SBI Share Price Today (3 December 2025): PSU Bank Sell-Off Tests State Bank of India Rally as Analysts Still See Upside

State Bank of India (SBI) shares slipped in Wednesday’s session as public-sector banks came under pressure after the government clarified it is not considering a hike in foreign direct investment (FDI) limits in PSBs. Yet the stock remains close to its 52‑week high, is up strongly in 2025, and most brokerages continue to project further upside over the next 12 months. ^[1]

SBI share price today: key levels on 3 December 2025

By around midday (12:10–12:30 pm IST) on 3 December 2025, SBI was trading in the ₹952–₹955 range on the NSE, down roughly 1.4–1.6% versus the previous close near ₹973. Intraday data from multiple market trackers show: ^[2]

Last traded price (intraday): about ₹952–₹955
Day’s range so far: low near ₹947–₹948, high around ₹972–₹973
Previous close: roughly ₹973
52-week range:
- High: ₹999
- Low: ₹680

That puts SBI only about 4–5% below its 52‑week high, even after Wednesday’s pullback. ^[3]

Returns have also been robust:

~25% gain in calendar 2025 so far, outpacing major private-sector peers. ^[4]
1‑year return: ~11–12%
3‑year return: ~54–55%
5‑year return: ~270%+ according to Dhan’s return history. ^[5]

Economic Times’ liveblog places SBI’s market capitalisation at roughly ₹8.8–₹8.9 trillion, with a trailing P/E multiple around 10.9x and EPS near ₹87–88 as of midday on 3 December. ^[6]

Why are PSU bank stocks under pressure today?

The immediate trigger for Wednesday’s sell-off in PSU banks was a clarification from the Ministry of Finance in Parliament that there is currently no proposal to raise the FDI limit in public-sector banks from 20% to 49%. ^[7]

Following that statement:

The Nifty PSU Bank index fell about 2.8–3%, with all 12 state-run banks in the red. ^[8]
SBI, the largest PSU lender, was down around 1.5% in late-morning trade, quoted near ₹967 in early prints and then softening further towards the ₹952–955 zone as the session progressed. ^[9]

Fortune India notes that while PSU banks have posted a strong financial turnaround over the past three years, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) still exhibit limited enthusiasm for the space, and the denial of any FDI relaxation snuffed out recent speculative buzz around a possible re‑rating driven by higher foreign ownership limits. ^[10]

In short: Wednesday’s move looks more like a sentiment shock than a fundamentals shock—the underlying earnings story for SBI remains broadly intact.

Big picture: a strong year for SBI stock

Despite today’s dip, SBI is coming off one of its strongest multi‑year runs:

Times of India reports that SBI shares are up nearly 25% in 2025, after climbing 5% in 2023 and 23% in 2024, positioning the stock for a fifth straight year of positive returns. ^[11]
Over five years, TradersUnion data show SBI’s market cap rising from about ₹4.1 trillion in 2021 to nearly ₹8.9 trillion in 2025, broadly mirroring the stock’s ~3x-plus price appreciation. ^[12]

What’s driving this sustained move?

According to recent coverage from Times of India and brokerage commentary:

Strong credit cycle: System‑wide loan growth is expected to run around 11–12% in the second half of FY26, supported by resilient GDP growth and healthy credit demand. ^[13]
Improving asset quality: Bad loan ratios (NPAs) have steadily trended lower, particularly in corporate and retail books. ^[14]
Steady earnings visibility: A combination of healthy advances growth, stable margins and moderate credit costs has supported double‑digit profit growth. ^[15]

The net effect: SBI has shifted, in the eyes of many investors, from a “deep value PSU bank” to something closer to a core long‑term holding on India’s growth story.

Q2 FY26 results: profits, margins and asset quality

SBI’s Q2 FY26 (quarter ended September 2025) results, released in early November, were the latest catalyst for the rally and for multiple broker upgrades.

Key highlights from brokerage analyses and company disclosures: ^[16]

Net profit:
- Around ₹20,160 crore on a standalone basis, up roughly 10% year‑on‑year, beating market estimates.
- Kotak Securities’ consolidated view pegs net profit just above ₹21,800 crore, up about 6–7% YoY, but slightly lower sequentially.
Revenue and NII:
- Consolidated revenue rose about 7–8% YoY and 5% QoQ.
- Net Interest Income (NII) climbed to roughly ₹42,985 crore, from ~₹41,620 crore in the year‑ago quarter.
Margins (NIMs):
- Broker commentary suggests domestic net interest margin is holding just above 3%, with some estimates noting a small QoQ improvement of a few basis points as funding costs stabilise and loan repricing kicks in. ^[17]
Asset quality:
- Net non‑performing assets (NNPA) ratio has improved further; one widely cited figure after Q2 FY26 is 0.42%, down from 0.53% a year earlier. ^[18]
- Provision coverage remains high, offering a buffer against future stress. ^[19]
Digital & retail momentum:
- Over 90% of transactions are now digital, driven by the YONO platform and other channels.
- Retail loans (especially home loans, personal loans and SME credit) are growing briskly and have become a key pillar of SBI’s incremental growth. ^[20]

Brokerage summaries emphasise that SBI is managing the transition to higher deposit costs relatively well, maintaining margins while protecting asset quality—no small feat in a competitive deposit environment. ^[21]

SBI’s valuation snapshot: still cheaper than private peers

Across multiple data providers, SBI’s current valuation looks like this as of 3 December 2025: ^[22]

Price-to-earnings (P/E): roughly 10–11x trailing earnings
Price-to-book (P/B): around 1.6–1.7x
Return on equity (ROE): roughly 14–15%, with several broker models projecting ~16% over FY27–FY28
Dividend yield: about 1.5–1.7%
Market cap: roughly ₹8.8–₹8.9 trillion

TS2’s synthesis of Mint and Groww data highlights that SBI still trades at a valuation discount to leading private banks, despite having narrowed the gap in terms of profitability (ROE and NIM), asset quality and growth. TS2 Tech

From a sector angle, Nomura’s broader India banks report notes that banks, as a group, trade at around 2.1x one‑year forward book value, which the brokerage considers inexpensive relative to the improving cycle in margins and credit costs. Within PSU banks, SBI is Nomura’s preferred pick, citing its stronger core profitability compared with peers like Bank of Baroda. ^[23]

What are brokerages saying about SBI now?

Several recent research notes and media summaries converge on a broadly positive stance:

An Economic Times piece on 6 November noted that top brokerages see about 7–20% upside in SBI over the next 12 months after the Q2 FY26 print, citing the profit beat and improvement in asset quality. ^[24]
Trendlyne’s aggregation of 31 reports from 14 analysts shows an average 12‑month share price target of around ₹1,012, implying mid‑single to high‑single‑digit upside from current levels; a more recent consensus entry on the same page shows a “consensus target” near ₹1,074, which would mean low double‑digit upside. ^[25]
Individual broker targets compiled there include:
- ICICI Securities: ₹1,150
- Axis Direct: ₹1,135
- Deven Choksey: ₹1,108
  — all rating the stock “Buy” and implying 15–20% potential upside vs prices in the mid‑₹950s. ^[26]
TS2’s roundup notes that Nomura and several domestic brokerages cluster around ₹1,100–1,108 as fair value, and that Mint’s data set (covering 38 analysts) shows SBI overwhelmingly rated “Strong Buy” or “Buy”, with only a single “Sell” rating. TS2 Tech

Overall, the sell‑side consensus is still bullish, but it’s also increasingly about earnings compounding and modest re‑rating, not a deep‑value turnaround story. Expectations for 12‑month returns tend to sit in the high single to low double digits.

Longer-term forecasts: 2026–2030 scenarios

Beyond traditional broker research, a number of quantitative and retail‑facing platforms publish price forecasts for SBI. These should always be treated as models, not certainties, but they help illustrate how the market is thinking about the long‑term path.

Analyst forecast aggregates

TradersUnion’s SBI page, which pulls together data from multiple analyst sources, shows: ^[27]

Analyst recommendation mix: heavily skewed toward “Strong Buy/Buy”, with relatively few Hold/Sell ratings.
6‑month price forecast:
- Highest analyst target: ₹1,170
- Lowest analyst target: ₹720
- Average target: ~₹1,063

Those numbers are broadly consistent with the Trendlyne and TS2 data, suggesting a consensus fair‑value band somewhere in the ₹1,050–1,100 range for the next 12 months, assuming earnings track current expectations.

Algorithmic price models

Algorithmic forecast sites, which rely mainly on historical price behaviour and technical patterns rather than deep fundamental analysis, are understandably more speculative:

TradersUnion’s long‑term model projects an average end‑2026 price near ₹1,460, with a mid‑year estimate above ₹1,600, and a 2030 year‑end projection close to ₹1,870. ^[28]
WalletInvestor estimates that, from a starting point near ₹975 on 3 December 2025, SBI could reach around ₹1,550 by late 2030, implying a 5‑year gain of roughly 55–60% in its scenario. ^[29]

These models assume that past return patterns and volatility regimes continue, and they do not fully account for regulatory shocks, macro surprises, or bank‑specific events. They’re best viewed as what‑if trajectories, not promises.

Sector tailwinds: why SBI keeps showing up in “top picks”

A big reason SBI regularly appears in strategist “top picks” lists is that the macro and sector backdrop has finally turned more supportive:

Nomura argues that the Indian banking system is exiting a profitability down‑cycle marked by NIM compression and elevated credit costs, and is entering an earnings‑led up‑cycle, with margins stabilising and unsecured stress easing. ^[30]
The brokerage expects credit growth to accelerate to around 13–14% by FY26–FY27, as banks regain appetite in higher‑yielding segments and corporate capex gradually revives. ^[31]
Times of India notes that the RBI expects GDP growth of 6.8% in FY26 and 6.6% in FY27, with system loan growth in H2 FY26 seen in the 11–12% range—conditions that typically favour large, well‑capitalised lenders. ^[32]

In this environment, scale becomes a feature, not a bug. SBI’s dominant share in retail deposits, its sprawling branch and digital franchise, and its ability to fund growth at relatively low cost give it structural advantages that are hard for smaller players to replicate.

It also helps that the Reserve Bank of India has reaffirmed SBI’s status as a domestic systemically important bank (D‑SIB), reinforcing its “too big to fail” label alongside HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank—something Business Standard flagged in its “stocks to watch” list for 3 December. ^[33]

Key risks: what could go wrong for the SBI bull case?

The story is not risk‑free. The same reports that are bullish on SBI also flag several hazards investors need to monitor closely:

Deposit competition and margin pressure
Even if Q2 FY26 suggested NIMs have stabilised, the sector has only just emerged from a period of margin squeeze driven by higher deposit rates. If the rate environment turns more volatile, or if deposit competition intensifies again, margin recovery could be slower than hoped. ^[34]
Asset‑quality surprises
Nomura’s sector note explicitly lists any renewed deterioration in asset quality, especially in unsecured retail or MSME segments, as a key risk. A sustained uptick in slippages would mean higher credit costs and weaker profitability. ^[35]
Regulatory and policy overhang
Wednesday’s FDI‑limit story is a reminder that policy expectations can move PSU bank stocks quickly, even when bank‑level fundamentals haven’t changed. Future debates around capital infusions, privatisation, or governance reforms could introduce headline volatility for SBI. ^[36]
Valuation catching up to reality
While SBI still trades at a discount to private peers, it is no longer “cheap at any price.” If earnings growth undershoots expectations or if the credit cycle cools, the valuation gap may stop narrowing, capping upside even if the bank continues to perform decently. TS2 Tech+2Trendlyne.com+2

Bottom line: a strong franchise, a softer day

Putting it all together:

Today’s decline in SBI appears to be driven mainly by sector sentiment following the FDI clarification, rather than any fresh deterioration in SBI’s own fundamentals. ^[37]
The stock is still up strongly in 2025, sits only a few percentage points below its 52‑week high, and has delivered hefty returns over three and five years. ^[38]
Q2 FY26 results underscored robust profit growth, stable margins and improving asset quality, with digital and retail businesses driving incremental growth. ^[39]
Broker consensus continues to lean clearly bullish, with typical 12‑month targets in the ₹1,050–1,100 band and nearly all major houses rating the stock “Buy” or “Strong Buy.” ^[40]

For investors and traders watching SBI on 3 December 2025, the message from the data is that the structural story remains intact, even as short‑term price action reacts to the ebb and flow of policy headlines and broader market risk sentiment.