Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD): Latest News, Dividend Outlook and Analyst Forecasts

Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHD) remains one of the most closely watched dividend ETFs going into year‑end 2025, with fresh inflows, an upcoming ex‑dividend date, and new analysis on its sector shake‑up and long‑term return potential.

As of the close on December 5, 2025, SCHD’s net asset value (NAV) sits at $27.71, with roughly $71.5 billion in assets and a 0.06% expense ratio, classifying it as a large, low‑cost dividend ETF tracking the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index. ^[1]

Schwab reports a 30‑day SEC yield of about 3.8% and a trailing 12‑month distribution yield just under 4%, positioning SCHD firmly in the “high‑quality dividend” camp rather than ultra‑high yield. ^[2]

Below is a roundup of the latest news, forecasts, and analyses on SCHD as of December 6, 2025, along with what it could mean for dividend investors.

SCHD price snapshot and key facts (December 6, 2025)

Latest NAV / price: ~$27.71 as of December 5, 2025. ^[3]
Fund size: About $71.5 billion in total net assets. ^[4]
Expense ratio:0.06%, among the cheapest in the dividend ETF space. ^[5]
Yields: SEC yield ~3.8%; trailing 12‑month distribution yield ~3.7–3.9%, depending on source and date. ^[6]
Long‑term performance (market price, to 11/30/2025):
- 1‑year: about ‑3%
- 3‑year annualized: ~5.4%
- 5‑year annualized: ~9.5%
- 10‑year annualized: ~11.4% ^[7]

Despite lagging its Large Value peer group in 2025 (category YTD return around 14% versus ~4% for SCHD), the ETF still shows robust long‑term annualized double‑digit returns over 10 years, underscoring why it remains widely followed among income‑focused investors. ^[8]

Latest SCHD news today: flows, strategy debates, and sector reshuffle

Strong fund flows and rising interest

Auto‑generated weekend data from TipRanks shows SCHD gained about 0.65% over the past week, with five‑day net inflows of roughly $137 million into the ETF. ^[9]

That level of fresh capital suggests that, even after a year of underperformance versus broader value benchmarks, investors are still using SCHD as a core dividend holding rather than abandoning the strategy.

Dividend growth vs. high yield: SCHD vs. JEPI

A widely shared piece published on December 5 compares Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) to JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), framing the debate between dividend growth and option‑based high income. ^[10]

Key points from that analysis:

JEPI’s yield is quoted above 8%, driven by an options overlay on defensive stocks.
SCHD’s yield is closer to 3.7–3.8%, but it does not cap upside with covered calls and emphasizes growing dividends from fundamentally strong companies. ^[11]

In short, recent commentary positions SCHD as the “growthier,” total‑return‑oriented choice for retirees or income investors willing to accept a lower current yield for potentially better long‑term capital appreciation and dividend growth.

“Is SCHD a buy now?” – fresh commentary from December

Multiple outlets over the past few days have revisited the question of whether SCHD is attractive going into 2026:

A Motley Fool article dated December 4, 2025 notes that SCHD’s roughly 3.8% yield is more than triple the S&P 500’s yield (around 1.2%), and highlights its ultra‑low 0.06% fee as a key competitive advantage. ^[12]
Another Motley Fool piece published December 5 describes SCHD as a standout ETF, emphasizing its long‑term record, focus on high‑yielding dividend growth stocks, and suitability as a simple core holding for income portfolios. ^[13]
A November 5 analysis asks whether buying SCHD today could “set you up for life,” arguing that a diversified, low‑cost dividend ETF with a proven track record can be a powerful long‑term compounding vehicle if paired with steady contributions and reinvested dividends. ^[14]

Overall, most mainstream commentary this week leans constructive, pointing to SCHD’s combination of yield, quality screens, and long‑term performance, while acknowledging its recent lag versus growth‑heavy benchmarks.

Index reconstitution: energy takes the lead

A detailed Seeking Alpha breakdown of the 2025 index reconstitution notes that SCHD’s largest sector exposure is now Energy, at about 19.3% of the portfolio. ^[15]

This is a notable shift for a fund historically dominated by sectors like Information Technology, Industrials, and Consumer Staples. The 2025 rebalance added emphasis on energy names that met SCHD’s quality and dividend‑history filters, which:

Increases cyclical and commodity price risk if oil prices fall or energy underperforms.
Could support near‑term income, as many energy majors currently sport elevated yields.

Another Seeking Alpha author, writing about a “dividend growth trifecta,” recently removed SCHD from their buy list, citing concerns that the new sector mix may temper the fund’s previously strong double‑digit dividend growth trajectory. ^[16]

At the same time, a separate analysis this week argues that SCHD “tops dividend competitors on value, yield and sustainability”, praising its ~3.7–3.8% yield, low fee, and attractive valuation metrics relative to other dividend ETFs. ^[17]

Together, these pieces illustrate a healthy debate:

Bulls see SCHD as an undervalued high‑quality dividend basket after a period of underperformance.
Skeptics worry that the energy tilt and slower dividend growth could make returns lumpier and less “pure growth” than in the past.

Dividends: latest payout and December 2025 ex‑dividend date

Dividend timing is top of mind right now, and several data providers have updated their calendars this week:

Most recent distribution: About $0.2604 per share in Q3 2025, with an ex‑dividend date of September 24, 2025 and pay date of September 29, 2025. ^[18]
Previous 2025 payout: Approximately $0.2602 per share in late June 2025. ^[19]
Next expected distribution: Several dividend‑tracking services list an upcoming ex‑dividend date around December 10, 2025, again with an indicated amount close to $0.26 per share (final figures can differ slightly). ^[20]

These numbers suggest that SCHD’s quarterly dividend has been holding roughly steady in 2025, and when annualized, aligns with the ~3.7–3.9% trailing yield range reported by Schwab and third‑party platforms. ^[21]

Important: Ex‑dividend dates and amounts can change and may differ slightly by data source. Investors should confirm the official date and amount with their broker or directly from Schwab before trading around the dividend.

Analyst forecasts and technical/quantitative outlook for SCHD

Wall Street‑derived price targets

Because SCHD is an ETF, analysts don’t typically publish price targets on the fund itself; instead, some services aggregate the targets of the underlying stocks.

TipRanks’ latest ETF consensus for SCHD, updated this week, shows: ^[22]

Average 12‑month price target:$30.93
High estimate:$36.19
Low estimate:$25.85
Implied upside: ~11% from a recent price around $27.8

Their system labels SCHD a “Moderate Buy”, based on a weighted blend of analyst ratings for its 100‑plus holdings.

Short‑term technical and AI‑driven signals

Several quantitative platforms have updated their technical and AI‑based views on SCHD in early December:

StockInvest notes that SCHD’s price slipped about 0.14% on the last trading day, from $27.75 to $27.71, but has still gained around 4% over the past two weeks. Volume declined on the down day, which they interpret as a mild positive technical sign. ^[23]
Tickeron reports that SCHD’s momentum indicator crossed above zero on November 11, 2025, which their historical back‑tests associate with a higher probability of continued upside over the following weeks, though exact percentages vary by case and are not guaranteed. ^[24]
TradingView’s technical summary currently rates SCHD as a “buy” on the daily time frame, “strong buy” on the weekly, and “buy” on the one‑month horizon, based on a composite of moving averages and indicators. ^[25]

While these models differ in methodology, the common thread as of early December is a slightly bullish short‑term technical backdrop after a strong two‑week run.

Inside SCHD’s portfolio: sectors and top holdings

Strategy and index rules

SCHD tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, which focuses on: ^[26]

U.S. companies with a lengthy history of paying dividends (typically at least 10 consecutive years).
Quality metrics, including return on equity, earnings‑to‑price, and cash‑flow‑to‑debt ratios.
A blend of dividend yield and dividend growth, avoiding many speculative, high‑yield names with weak fundamentals. ^[27]

This rules‑based approach explains why SCHD often features mega‑cap and large‑cap blue chips rather than small, distressed high‑yielders.

Top holdings

Recent portfolio data from Morningstar shows that SCHD’s top positions currently include: ^[28]

Merck & Co. (MRK) – roughly 4.7–4.8% of assets
Amgen (AMGN) – roughly 4.7–4.8%
Cisco Systems (CSCO) – around 4.5%

These holdings reflect the fund’s tilt toward established, cash‑rich companies in sectors like healthcare and technology that have demonstrated both balance‑sheet strength and consistent dividend policies.

Sector breakdown after 2025 reconstitution

As noted earlier, Energy now represents about 19.3% of SCHD, the single largest sector weight after the 2025 index reconstitution. ^[29]

Other major allocations include:

Healthcare, Technology, Industrials, and Financials, each holding meaningful weight (exact percentages shift as markets move, but SCHD generally maintains a diversified profile across 8–10 sectors). ^[30]

This mix makes SCHD more cyclical than some purely defensive dividend funds, though its underlying quality screens continue to filter for financially solid issuers.

Performance through 2025: a mixed year for SCHD

According to Schwab’s own performance table as of November 30, 2025: ^[31]

YTD (2025) market‑price return: about +3.9–4.1%
1‑year return: about ‑2.8 to ‑3.0%
3‑year annualized: ~5.4%
5‑year annualized: ~9.5%
10‑year annualized: ~11.4%

By contrast, the Large Value category average shows:

YTD return near 14%
1‑year return around +7% ^[32]

This means SCHD has underperformed typical value funds in 2025, largely due to its specific stock and sector mix.

Other sources that use different cut‑off dates have reported slightly different 12‑month figures: one recent comparison with JEPI put SCHD down about 4% over the past year, which is directionally consistent with Schwab’s own data. ^[33]

Still, long‑term numbers remain strong, and SCHD continues to attract favorable mention in “best ETF” round‑ups. A Kiplinger list of the best dividend ETFs for diversified portfolios, published three weeks ago, highlighted SCHD as a top choice with a yield around 3.9% and a focus on high‑quality, large U.S. dividend payers. ^[34]

Key risks and what to watch next

Based on the latest analyses, investors tracking SCHD may want to keep an eye on several key issues:

Sector concentration and energy exposure
- The 2025 rebalance pushed Energy to nearly one‑fifth of the fund, increasing sensitivity to commodity prices and regulatory changes. ^[35]
Dividend growth trajectory
- While the current yield near 3.8% is attractive, some analysts worry that future dividend growth could slow relative to SCHD’s stellar past, particularly if the new portfolio tilts toward slower‑growing cyclical names. ^[36]
Relative performance vs. value and broader market
- SCHD has underperformed both the Large Value category and the S&P 500 in 2025. For some investors, that makes it a value opportunity; others see it as a sign that its factor mix is out of favor. ^[37]
Fee competition and ETF pricing pressure
- Schwab has been cutting fees on several of its index ETFs, and industry‑wide competition continues to push costs lower. For now, SCHD’s 0.06% fee remains highly competitive, but fee wars could continue to reshape the landscape. ^[38]
Macro environment and interest rates
- High‑quality dividend strategies can lag when growth stocks dominate or when investors rotate aggressively into small caps and cyclicals. Conversely, they often shine during periods of volatility or slower economic growth—a factor many recent commentators highlight as a reason to keep SCHD on the radar. ^[39]

Takeaways for investors considering SCHD now

As of December 6, 2025, the headline narrative around SCHD looks something like this:

Fund flows and technicals are improving. Money is coming back in, and several quantitative and technical services are leaning bullish in the short term. ^[40]
Income remains attractive but not extreme. A yield around 3.8%, backed by long dividend histories and quality screens, positions SCHD as a middle ground between low‑yield broad‑market ETFs and ultra‑high‑yield riskier products. ^[41]
The portfolio has quietly changed. The 2025 reconstitution’s energy tilt is a real risk factor—and a key reason some dividend‑growth purists have become more cautious. ^[42]
Analyst‑derived targets suggest modest upside. Aggregated forecasts call for roughly 10–12% upside over the next 12 months, though those estimates are based on the underlying stocks and are far from guaranteed. ^[43]

For investors who:

Want simple, rules‑based exposure to high‑quality U.S. dividend payers,
Prefer moderate yield with room for long‑term growth, and
Are comfortable with some sector concentration and potential short‑term underperformance,

SCHD remains one of the most prominent ETF candidates in the dividend space heading into 2026.

Those who are extremely sensitive to drawdowns, or who strongly prefer broad‑based index exposure without sector tilts, may instead favor lower‑yield but more diversified funds or pair SCHD with other ETFs to balance its energy and factor exposures. ^[44]

Important disclaimer

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not individualized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a prediction of future performance. ETF prices and dividends can fluctuate and you can lose money. Always consider your own financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives, and consult a qualified financial professional or conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

References

Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD): Latest News, Dividend Outlook and Analyst Forecasts – December 6, 2025