Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ: STX) ended Monday’s regular session sharply lower even as the broader market started the holiday week in positive territory—and investors are now turning their attention to three near-term catalysts: lingering Nasdaq‑100 reconstitution effects, a dividend “last day to buy” window that arrives quickly, and a busy slate of U.S. economic releases before Tuesday’s open.
STX stock price today: a volatile reversal into the close
Seagate shares closed at $282.85 on Monday, Dec. 22, down $13.48 (-4.55%). The day was notably volatile: STX opened at $300.96, traded as high as $302.40, and fell as low as $279.50 on volume of about 4.34 million shares.
While the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq finished higher to kick off what is typically a quieter holiday week, STX moved in the opposite direction. [1]
Sector check: other data-storage names also leaned lower on the day—Western Digital (WDC) fell more than 2% and Pure Storage (PSTG) also declined—suggesting Seagate’s weakness wasn’t completely isolated.
After-hours trading: modest bounce, but liquidity is thin
In the first couple of hours after the closing bell, STX traded modestly above the regular-session close in extended trading, with different market data feeds showing prints in the mid‑$280s around 6:00–6:15 p.m. ET. [2]
A key reminder for Tuesday morning: extended-hours trading tends to be less liquid and more volatile, meaning price moves can look larger than they would during the regular session. [3]
The biggest “today” headline: Seagate officially joins the Nasdaq‑100
Monday wasn’t just another session for Seagate—it was the first day STX became effective as a Nasdaq‑100 constituent following Nasdaq’s annual reconstitution.
Nasdaq announced that the Nasdaq‑100 changes would take effect prior to the market open on Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, and that Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) was among six companies added. [4]
Why this matters for STX trading right now:
- The Nasdaq‑100 is tracked by a large ecosystem of products and derivatives; Nasdaq said the index underpins 200+ tracking products with more than $600 billion in assets under management globally. [5]
- Annual reconstitution is timed around major quarterly expiration dynamics (“quadruple witching”), which can amplify volume and short-term dislocations around index rebalance windows. [6]
What investors are debating after today’s drop: it’s common for stocks involved in major index changes to experience mechanical flows, short-term positioning, and “sell-the-news” profit-taking once inclusion becomes official. With STX having rallied strongly into December and recently printing a 52‑week high near $308.93 (Dec. 11), Monday’s reversal fits the pattern of a post-event reset—though there’s no single confirmed driver disclosed by the company. [7]
A dividend deadline is coming fast: what matters before Tuesday’s open
Seagate has a $0.74 quarterly cash dividend scheduled, and the timeline now matters because of where it lands on the calendar:
- Seagate’s board previously declared the dividend as payable Jan. 9, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on Dec. 24, 2025. [8]
- Seagate’s investor relations dividend history also shows a Dec. 24, 2025 record date and Jan. 9, 2026 distribution date for the $0.74 ordinary dividend. [9]
- Multiple market data sources list the ex-dividend date as Dec. 24, 2025. [10]
Practical takeaway for Tuesday (Dec. 23): if the ex-dividend date is Wednesday, Dec. 24, then Tuesday’s session is effectively the “last day to buy” (during regular trading hours) for investors seeking eligibility for that dividend, because shares typically trade without the dividend starting on the ex-date. [11]
Also note the holiday schedule: U.S. markets close early on Wednesday, Dec. 24 (1:00 p.m. ET) and are closed on Thursday, Dec. 25. That can compress liquidity and trading windows around dividend-related positioning. [12]
What to watch before the market opens Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025
STX is a high-beta hardware name that can react quickly to shifts in rates and risk appetite. With that backdrop, the pre-market calendar matters more than usual:
1) U.S. economic data in the pre-market and early session
Market coverage heading into Tuesday points to a cluster of U.S. releases including GDP and durable goods, with additional reports like consumer confidence also on the radar. [13]
These reports can move Treasury yields and index futures—often translating into outsized moves in cyclical tech and hardware stocks like STX.
2) Holiday-week liquidity and positioning
With Christmas approaching, markets often see thinner order books and faster price swings, especially in names that have been popular momentum trades in 2025. Nasdaq explicitly flags that extended markets can be more volatile and less liquid—conditions that frequently spill into the first 30–60 minutes of the next regular session. [14]
3) Any “second wave” Nasdaq‑100 inclusion effects
Although the reconstitution became effective Monday, traders will still watch for:
- unusually large opening prints or imbalances,
- continued ETF/benchmark alignment flows,
- and short-term rotations between “new inclusions” and “recent deletions.”
Nasdaq’s own reconstitution notice underscores how large the tracking ecosystem is, which is why these effects can persist beyond the first day. [15]
Forecasts and analyst view: what “today’s” previews are focusing on
With no Seagate earnings release after the bell on Dec. 22, most of today’s forward-looking coverage centered on expectations for the next report and the AI-driven storage demand narrative that has powered the stock this year.
Earnings expectations heading into the next report
A widely circulated earnings preview published Monday said analysts expect Seagate to report about $2.55 in profit per share (diluted basis) for the upcoming fiscal quarter, and it cited expectations for full‑year EPS of about $10.40 (fiscal 2026) with further growth projected into fiscal 2027. [16]
Meanwhile, market data listings continue to point to an estimated earnings date in late January 2026. [17]
The fundamental bull case still centers on AI and cloud capex
Seagate has been framing demand strength around mass-capacity storage tied to data center expansion and AI workloads, and earlier company guidance has pointed to results above estimates amid that theme. Reuters previously reported Seagate forecasting second-quarter results above estimates on “AI strength,” reflecting increased storage demand from cloud investment cycles. [18]
Street targets: clustered around the high-$200s to low-$300s (with some aggressive outliers)
Consensus snapshots vary by provider, but one widely used sell-side aggregation shows a “BUY” mean consensus and an average target in the high‑$290s range. [19]
Investors should also be aware that individual firms have published much higher targets in recent months (alongside more cautious voices), reinforcing that STX is a high‑dispersion, high‑volatility story—great for traders, but it can punish crowded positioning quickly. [20]
Bottom line for Tuesday’s open: three questions to answer early
As the market heads toward the open on Tuesday, Dec. 23, STX traders will likely be watching these three questions in real time:
- Does the after-hours stabilization hold into the pre-market, or does volatility resume? [21]
- Do macro releases shift rates and tech sentiment at 8:30 a.m. / 10:00 a.m. ET, setting the tone for high-beta hardware? [22]
- Does dividend timing (with an ex-date widely listed as Dec. 24) pull in short-term buyers—or does it coincide with more profit-taking into the holiday week? [23]
STX has been one of 2025’s standout “picks-and-shovels” plays on the AI buildout, but Monday’s reversal is a reminder that even strong secular stories can see sharp drawdowns—especially around index events and holiday-thinned liquidity. [24]
References
1. apnews.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. investors.seagate.com, 10. finance.yahoo.com, 11. finance.yahoo.com, 12. www.nyse.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. markets.financialcontent.com, 17. finance.yahoo.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.marketscreener.com, 20. www.marketscreener.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. finance.yahoo.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com
