Data and news current as of 9 December 2025. This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
Sezzle stock in December 2025: from hyper-growth to “serious contender”
Sezzle Inc (NASDAQ: SEZL), the buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) fintech once written off as a niche player, has turned into one of 2025’s wildest rides on the Nasdaq.
After a run that saw the stock up around 1,000% over the past year at one point, followed by drawdowns of 40%–70% from its peak, Sezzle has settled—for now—into the role of highly volatile, profitable growth stock with real earnings and real scrutiny. [1]
As of the close on 8 December 2025, Sezzle shares traded at $67.70, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $2.3 billion. The stock changes hands at about 20.9x trailing earnings and 16.2x forward earnings, with a 52‑week range of $24.86 to $186.74 and a beta of 8.73—translation: this thing swings. [2]
Year-to-date, Sezzle is up close to 59%, significantly outperforming the broader U.S. equity market, even after a brutal late-summer correction. [3]
Now a fresh catalyst has arrived: Sezzle is being added to a major U.S. equity index.
New catalyst: Sezzle to join the S&P SmallCap 600
On 8 December 2025, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Sezzle Inc (SEZL) will join the S&P SmallCap 600 index, replacing Vital Energy (VTLE), effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, 15 December 2025. [4]
Following the announcement, multiple news outlets reported that Sezzle’s stock rose around 6–8% in after-hours and next-session trading, reflecting the classic “index inclusion” effect as index-tracking funds and quantitative strategies prepare to buy the shares. [5]
Index inclusion matters because:
- Index funds and ETFs benchmarked to the S&P SmallCap 600 will likely need to add SEZL.
- Active small-cap managers who track index composition may increase coverage or positions.
- Liquidity and visibility typically improve once a company joins a major benchmark.
For a relatively young fintech with a tight float and high short interest, incremental forced demand from index trackers can amplify volatility in both directions.
Under the hood: Sezzle’s Q3 2025 earnings and guidance
Sezzle’s fundamentals now matter as much as the story—and they’ve been strong.
In Q3 2025 (quarter ended 30 September), Sezzle reported: [6]
- Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) above $1.0 billion for the first time, up 58.7% year over year.
- Total revenue of $116.8 million, up 67% YoY.
- Net income of $26.7 million, up 72.7% YoY, for a 22.8% net margin.
- Diluted EPS of $0.75 versus $0.44 a year earlier.
- Adjusted net income of $25.4 million and adjusted EPS of $0.71, up 52.6% YoY.
- Adjusted EBITDA of $39.6 million, with a margin of 33.9%, up from 32.4% a year ago.
On a trailing‑twelve‑month basis, Sezzle now generates around $418.6 million in revenue and $115.8 million in net income, after growing 2024 revenue by 70% and earnings by more than 10x versus 2023. [7]
Guidance: 2025 and a first look at 2026
Management has leaned into the “profitable growth” narrative:
- 2025 net income guidance has been raised to roughly $125 million, with adjusted net income around $120 million, according to company disclosures and subsequent analyst commentary. [8]
- Sezzle has also introduced 2026 guidance of around $4.35 in adjusted net income per diluted share, assuming an effective tax rate around 25%. [9]
To support growth, Sezzle expanded its revolving credit facility from $150 million to $225 million in late October 2025, increasing the firepower available to finance consumer receivables. [10]
Operationally, Sezzle continues to roll out features designed to keep users inside its ecosystem:
- An expanded “Earn” tab in the app with rewards, discounts, and gamified engagement tools such as Sezzle Arcade and receipt-based rewards.
- A browser extension that surfaces offers and coupons while users shop.
- Strong engagement metrics: monthly active users +38%, revenue‑generating users +120%, and monthly sessions +78% year-on-year, according to the company. [11]
The company has also signed new enterprise merchants like D&B Supply and Dunham’s Sports, while earning a spot on TIME’s inaugural list of America’s Growth Leaders, highlighting rapid revenue growth and stock performance. [12]
One governance wrinkle: longtime CFO Karen Hartje has notified the company of her intention to resign for personal reasons, though she remains in place under a transition consulting agreement. [13]
BNPL tailwinds, but also regulatory storm clouds
Sezzle doesn’t operate in a vacuum. It is part of the broader buy-now-pay-later ecosystem alongside Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay, PayPal’s “Pay in 4” and others.
Demand side: holiday spending and long-term growth
Industry data going into the 2025 holiday season have been bullish for BNPL overall:
- Adobe Analytics projected about $20.2 billion in U.S. BNPL spending over the 2025 holiday period, up roughly 11% year-over-year, boosting sentiment around companies like Sezzle. [14]
- Separate research cited by Bloomberg and Juniper Research suggests global BNPL transaction volume could reach $687 billion by 2028, up from $334 billion last year—more than a doubling in five years. [15]
Sezzle’s own raised 2025 profit guidance precedes this seasonal boost, implying management already saw strong underlying momentum before the peak shopping period. [16]
Regulatory side: questions from Washington and the states
At the same time, regulators and lawmakers are increasingly wary of BNPL’s impact on consumer debt:
- In late November 2025, a group of U.S. Senate Democrats—including Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker and others—sent letters to seven BNPL providers, explicitly including Sezzle, asking for detailed information on who uses their services, how often, and how many borrowers fall behind on payments. [17]
- On 1–2 December 2025, attorneys general from seven U.S. states launched an inquiry into BNPL lenders, asking companies such as Klarna, Affirm and Afterpay to explain loan structures, costs, and how they assess customers’ ability to repay. [18]
Although Sezzle wasn’t the primary focus of the public articles naming those firms, the Senate inquiry explicitly puts it on the radar in the same breath as much larger players.
These moves come against a backdrop of concern that BNPL can “snowball quickly into a serious financial burden” for some users, as highlighted in coverage around Klarna’s IPO and the sector more broadly. [19]
For Sezzle investors, the message is clear: regulatory risk is no longer theoretical. New rules could affect:
- How BNPL loans are underwritten and disclosed
- Whether products are treated more like credit cards or traditional loans
- Charge-off rates and compliance costs
What Wall Street analysts are saying about Sezzle stock
Despite the volatility and regulatory noise, the sell-side consensus remains broadly constructive.
According to aggregated data from StockAnalysis:
- 4 analysts currently cover Sezzle.
- The average rating is “Buy.”
- The consensus 12‑month price target is $113.75, implying about 68% upside from the latest close near $67.70. [20]
Those targets aren’t static; they’ve moved around with the stock. Earlier in September 2025, Zacks Equity Research highlighted a mean price target of $131.67, based on three analyst targets ranging from $111 to $150, implying roughly 50% upside from the then-current price of $88. [21]
Notably, the same article cautioned that price targets are often overly optimistic and should be treated “with a high degree of skepticism”—especially in hot story stocks where banks have incentives to stay friendly. [22]
Independent fundamental models
Beyond the street:
- Research platform Simply Wall St models a long‑term “fair value” of about $108.50 per share, roughly 59% above the current price, based on projections that Sezzle could reach $885.4 million in revenue and $232.2 million in earnings by 2028—equating to around 33.5% compound annual revenue growth from today’s levels. [23]
- That same analysis notes a wide spread in fair‑value estimates—from under $10 to well over $250 per share—underscoring just how uncertain the long-term path is. [24]
Put differently: the median view skews bullish, but the range of outcomes is enormous.
Short-term Sezzle stock forecasts: technical and AI-driven views
Algorithmic forecasting tools have also weighed in on Sezzle, and they’re more cautious than the fundamental bulls.
StockInvest.us: strong recent bounce, but a projected pullback
Technical-analysis site StockInvest.us currently labels SEZL a “Buy or Hold candidate” (since 3 December 2025), noting a gain of a bit over 5% since that signal. However, it also warns that the stock sits in the upper part of a very wide, falling short‑term trend. [25]
Key points from their latest update (8 December 2025): [26]
- Last close: $67.70, down 1.01% on the day, but up 24.36% over the last two weeks.
- Volume declined alongside price—viewed as mildly positive, as falling volume can dampen downside momentum.
- The model projects that, given the current trend, Sezzle could fall about 37% over the next three months, with a 90% estimated probability of ending that period between $26.70 and $42.86, unless the recent strength forces a trend reclassification.
- Short- and long‑term moving averages still flash “buy”, but the stock is volatile, with average daily price moves around 6–7% and support around $66.25.
So, StockInvest’s take is: trend still technically down, bounce impressive, risk very high.
Intellectia.ai: mixed signals and heavy short interest
Another quant platform, Intellectia.ai, shows a similar tension: [27]
- As of 9 December 2025, Sezzle is in an uptrend that began around 18 November, with a +31% price gain over that stretch.
- Their technical signal summary is “Sell” overall, with 5 bearish indicators and 2 bullish.
- Short-term moving averages (5‑day vs 20‑day) look bullish, but mid‑ and long‑term averages (20 vs 60 vs 200 days) remain bearish, suggesting the bounce is fighting a longer downtrend.
- The short sale ratio as of 5 December is reported around 33% of trading volume, and rising—indicating an active community of short sellers who may be betting on mean reversion.
- A near‑term AI pattern‑matching model projects only about a 3.5% move over the next month, a much more modest forecast than the three‑month technical scenarios.
- Long-term price simulations for 2026 show a theoretical trading channel between roughly $154 and $352, with potential return-on-investment figures that look spectacular—but which are clearly highly speculative and model‑dependent.
In short: AI‑driven technical models see high volatility, heavy short interest, and a fragile uptrend inside a still‑questionable bigger picture.
Volatility recap: from 10-bagger to sharp drawdown
To put all this in context, zoom out:
- Earlier in 2025, Sezzle’s stock price surged from around $45 in January to over $180 by early July—a gain of roughly 300% in six months and more than 1,000% over a 12‑month span from its 2024 lows. [28]
- Subsequent disappointments and profit-taking saw the name drop 39% in August and another double‑digit percentage in September, according to commentary from The Motley Fool, which has repeatedly highlighted Sezzle as both a huge opportunity and a high‑risk trade. [29]
Those swings are not normal, even in growth tech. They reflect:
- A small float and elevated short interest
- Rapid shifts in sentiment around BNPL credit risk and regulation
- Positioning by momentum traders and quant funds
Anyone buying SEZL today is implicitly signing up for this kind of ride.
Key risks to the Sezzle investment thesis
Pulling the pieces together, investors watching Sezzle in December 2025 should keep several risk buckets in mind:
- Credit risk and underwriting discipline
Sezzle’s rapid GMV and revenue growth are fueled by extending short-term credit, often to younger or thin-file consumers. Provisions for credit losses have risen in absolute terms as loan volume grows, and the big question is whether the company can maintain attractive loss rates as it stretches into new customer segments. [30] - Regulatory and political risk
Letters from U.S. senators and state attorneys general show that BNPL is firmly on the radar of policymakers who worry about over-indebted households. Future rules could require more stringent affordability checks, clearer disclosures, or even treating BNPL more like revolving credit—all of which could pressure margins or growth. [31] - Competitive pressure
Larger players like Klarna, Affirm, PayPal and Block/Afterpay can afford aggressive promotions and deep integrations with merchants. Sezzle has carved out a niche with its focus on credit-building and app-centric engagement, but defending that position will require constant product innovation and marketing spend. [32] - Valuation and expectations risk
Even after a sharp pullback from its highs, Sezzle trades at multiples that assume continued high growth and sustained profitability. If growth slows faster than expected, or if credit costs surprise to the downside, those multiples can compress quickly—as they did during the Q2/Q3 sentiment swing when the stock fell 40%+ despite solid headline numbers. [33] - Liquidity, short interest and trading risk
With a beta near 9 and meaningful short activity, Sezzle is prone to violent squeezes and air pockets. For many investors, position sizing and risk management matter more here than fine-tuning a target price.
Bottom line: how Sezzle stock looks as of 9 December 2025
As of early December 2025, Sezzle sits at a fascinating crossroads:
- Fundamentals: Revenue is growing ~60–70% year on year, margins are expanding, and management is guiding to triple‑digit millions of net income in 2025 with an even more profitable 2026. [34]
- Valuation: At about 21x trailing and 16x forward earnings, SEZL is no longer a pre‑profit moonshot but still priced for robust growth. [35]
- Sentiment:
- Fundamental analysts skew bullish, with average 12‑month price targets in the low‑to‑mid $100s and long‑term fair‑value models clustered around $100–110. [36]
- Technical and AI‑driven models are more cautious, flagging downside risk over the next few months even as they acknowledge the recent rally and strong short‑term momentum. [37]
- Macro and policy backdrop: BNPL demand is still climbing, especially among younger consumers, but legislators and regulators are increasingly engaged, which could reshape the economics of the entire sector. [38]
For growth‑oriented investors comfortable with high volatility and regulatory uncertainty, Sezzle remains one of the most levered pure plays on BNPL adoption—and now, with S&P SmallCap 600 inclusion, it’s stepping further into the institutional spotlight.
For more conservative investors, Sezzle may be better viewed as a stock to watch rather than chase: a case study in how quickly a story can evolve when rapid fundamental improvement, exuberant expectations, and political scrutiny collide.
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. investingnews.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.globenewswire.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. sezzle.com, 9. sezzle.com, 10. sezzle.com, 11. sezzle.com, 12. sezzle.com, 13. sezzle.com, 14. simplywall.st, 15. news.bloomberglaw.com, 16. simplywall.st, 17. www.paymentsdive.com, 18. news.bloomberglaw.com, 19. fortune.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. finviz.com, 22. finviz.com, 23. simplywall.st, 24. simplywall.st, 25. stockinvest.us, 26. stockinvest.us, 27. intellectia.ai, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. www.globenewswire.com, 31. www.paymentsdive.com, 32. sezzle.com, 33. stockanalysis.com, 34. www.globenewswire.com, 35. stockanalysis.com, 36. stockanalysis.com, 37. stockinvest.us, 38. simplywall.st
