Shell PLC Stock (SHEL) News and Forecast: BP Takeover Talk, Buybacks, and the Key Catalysts Into 2026 (Dec. 16, 2025)

Dec. 16, 2025 — Shell plc (LSE: SHEL | NYSE: SHEL) is drawing fresh attention from investors today after a cluster of deal-related headlines and governance developments landed just as the energy major continues aggressive capital returns and prepares for its next earnings report.

In U.S. trading early Tuesday, Shell’s ADR was around $72 per share. In London, Shell shares were around 2,706p at the close on Dec. 16, according to market data providers. ^[1]

Below is what’s moving Shell stock, what analysts are forecasting, and what the market is likely to focus on as Shell heads toward its Q4 2025 results on Feb. 5, 2026. ^[2]

What’s driving Shell stock on Dec. 16, 2025

Shell’s news flow today is less about day-to-day oil price noise and more about strategy and capital allocation—the two themes that have been central to the investment case for integrated majors in 2025.

1) Shell’s M&A chief reportedly quit after a blocked BP takeover proposal

The headline grabbing the most attention: Shell’s chief of mergers and acquisitions, Greg Gut, resigned after Shell leadership blocked an internal proposal to pursue a blockbuster acquisition of BP, according to reporting cited by Reuters and the Financial Times. ^[3]

Why it matters for the stock:

It reinforces the message CEO Wael Sawan has repeated publicly: Shell would rather prioritize share buybacks than pursue a mega-merger that could reshape the company and add execution risk. ^[4]
It also revives a market narrative that has surfaced intermittently in 2025: BP’s weaker share performance and strategic pivots have made it a recurring takeover “what if.” Reuters noted Shell had previously issued a formal denial in June, which under UK takeover rules restricted any bid for a period and that the restriction would lift later in December. ^[5]

Bottom line: investors typically reward capital discipline at this stage of the cycle—especially if oil and gas prices are volatile—so the market’s reaction often hinges on whether Shell stays committed to returning cash rather than chasing transformational deals.

2) UK regulator investigating EY over Shell audit partner rotation

Separately, Britain’s Financial Reporting Council (FRC) is investigating Ernst & Young over potential breaches tied to its audit of Shell’s 2024 financial statements (specifically, audit partner rotation requirements). Shell has said its financial statements are unchanged. ^[6]

Why it matters:

This is primarily a governance and compliance headline, not a direct cash-flow driver.
Even without restatements, governance issues can create a short-term “overhang” for some institutional investors—especially those focused on audit quality and controls. ^[7]

3) The deal tape is active: LLOG talks, portfolio reshaping, and upstream focus

Shell has also been in the news recently for bolt-on and portfolio moves that align with its “value over volume” messaging:

Potential acquisition: Reuters reported Shell is in advanced talks to buy LLOG Exploration Offshore for more than $3 billion, a move that would deepen Shell’s position in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico with an operator known for deepwater assets. ^[8]
Temporary shut-ins: Shell said output at two Gulf of Mexico platforms (Whale and Perdido) was temporarily shut due to an outage affecting a key pipeline system, with an expectation of resumption shortly thereafter. ^[9]
Brazil financing/portfolio: Reuters reported Shell is seeking a buyer for a 20% stake in a Brazilian oilfield cluster (Gato do Mato project) as part of financing a large offshore development. ^[10]

Collectively, these are consistent with a strategy of targeted upstream exposure (often with advantaged breakevens) while staying financially conservative.

Shell’s exploration and gas growth narrative gets new data points

Even as investors increasingly value shareholder returns, Shell’s longer-term equity story still depends on resource replacement and gas/LNG positioning—especially as demand growth shifts toward Asia and industrial electrification.

Offshore Namibia drilling campaign set for April 2026

Reuters reported Shell and partners (QatarEnergy and Namibia’s Namcor) are preparing for a new offshore drilling campaign in Namibia starting April 2026. This comes after Shell previously took a write-down on a discovery in the same block it deemed not commercially viable at the time. ^[11]

For Shell stock, Namibia represents an “option value” story:

Big discoveries in the Orange Basin have attracted global attention.
But exploration outcomes and commerciality can be uncertain—so markets typically discount these projects until there is clearer development visibility. ^[12]

South Africa farm-in: Shell to take 60% in Block 2C

Reuters also reported that PetroSA approved a deal that would give Shell Offshore a 60% stake in Block 2C offshore South Africa, including a $25 million signing bonus and a commitment to carry costs (around $135–$150 million) for three wells, according to a document seen by Reuters. ^[13]

This underscores Shell’s willingness to spend on high-upside basins, even while it returns significant cash to shareholders.

Trinidad: Aphrodite project still needs government approvals

In another gas-focused update, Reuters reported Trinidad and Tobago’s government is awaiting a field development plan to advance Shell’s Aphrodite offshore gas project. Reuters said Shell had taken a positive final investment decision earlier in 2025, with first gas expected in 2027, but approvals and license conditions remain part of the process. ^[14]

For investors, Trinidad matters because Shell has a major LNG position there, and the country has faced natural gas supply constraints impacting LNG utilization. ^[15]

AI and digital efficiency: Shell expands upstream tech partnership with SLB

On Dec. 11, Reuters reported SLB and Shell are partnering to develop digital and “agentic AI” tools aimed at improving performance and efficiency across upstream operations, building on a long-standing relationship. ^[16]

This type of initiative typically doesn’t move Shell stock on its own, but it supports a key investor theme: cost discipline and operational efficiency, especially in complex deepwater and LNG value chains.

LNG dispute watch: Venture Global case adds headline risk

Shell’s LNG business—often viewed as a strategic crown jewel—also carries legal and contract risk.

Reuters reported that Venture Global pushed back against Shell’s fraud allegations in a dispute over LNG cargoes, describing it as part of a broader arbitration saga involving multiple buyers. Reuters noted Shell lost its case in August while another buyer won later in 2025. ^[17]

For Shell investors, the key issue is not just the legal outcome, but what it signals about:

Contract sanctity in tight LNG markets
Potential one-off financial impacts
The reputational and relationship cost in the LNG ecosystem

Capital returns remain central: buybacks, dividends, and “discipline over deals”

Ongoing buybacks: daily repurchases continue

Shell continues to publish routine updates on share repurchases. For example, Shell disclosed purchases for cancellation dated Dec. 15, 2025, with roughly 1.5 million shares repurchased across London and Amsterdam venues in that update. ^[18]

This matters in the context of today’s BP takeover chatter:

A mega-deal would likely compete with buybacks for capital.
Shell management has consistently framed buybacks as the cleaner, lower-risk way to create per-share value. ^[19]

Dividend visibility: Q3 2025 dividend payable Dec. 18

Shell also published details for the third-quarter 2025 interim dividend, including currency equivalents and confirming the dividend is payable on Dec. 18, 2025 to eligible shareholders. ^[20]

Strategic framework: higher distribution targets, lower spending envelope

At its earlier strategy update in 2025, Shell announced an intent to increase shareholder distributions (primarily via buybacks), reduce its investment budget range through 2028, and maintain a focus on LNG growth. ^[21]

Even though that strategy statement dates from earlier in the year, it frames how investors interpret today’s news: are the headlines consistent with Shell’s plan, or do they threaten it?

Shell earnings date: what investors will watch next

Shell said it will release fourth-quarter 2025 results and its Q4 interim dividend announcement on Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026 at 07:00 GMT. ^[22]

By then, markets will likely be focused on a short list of questions:

Shareholder returns:
- Does Shell maintain buyback momentum into 2026?
- Any change to distribution priorities after the BP speculation headlines?
Integrated Gas / LNG performance:
- Trading results can swing quarterly earnings.
- Any updates on LNG supply constraints, contracts, and disputes.
Upstream and deepwater execution:
- Gulf of Mexico reliability (e.g., pipeline disruptions)
- Progress on major assets and any production guidance adjustments ^[23]
Chemicals and refining:
- These segments can be cyclical and can drag or boost results depending on margins.

Shell stock forecast: what analysts are saying in December 2025

Analyst expectations for Shell remain generally constructive, but not without caution.

According to MarketBeat’s compilation of analyst estimates, Shell’s average 12‑month price target is about $79.91 (with a range that extends higher), implying roughly ~10% upside from recent levels, and the consensus rating sits around “Moderate Buy.” ^[24]

At the same time, some strategists have turned more selective after a strong run. For example, summaries of analyst actions in late November referenced a more cautious stance from UBS, citing limited near-term upside after performance and concerns about buyback intensity into next year. ^[25]

How to read the analyst setup right now:

Bulls tend to emphasize Shell’s cash generation + buyback machine, plus LNG scale.
More cautious views tend to focus on commodity sensitivity, downstream/chemicals cyclicality, and uncertainty over large-scale M&A or capital reallocation.

The investing takeaway for Shell (SHEL) stock on Dec. 16

Shell stock is being pulled by a familiar trio of forces:

Capital discipline vs. deal ambition (today’s BP-related reporting makes this explicit) ^[26]
Operational execution and upstream optionality (LLOG talks, Gulf reliability, Brazil funding, Namibia/South Africa exploration) ^[27]
Governance and legal headlines (EY audit investigation; LNG arbitration disputes) ^[28]

For many investors, the near-term question isn’t whether Shell can generate cash—2025 has largely been about proving that it can. The question is whether Shell can keep converting that cash into per-share value while still funding a pipeline of projects that protects the company’s long-term production and LNG growth profile.

With the next confirmed earnings catalyst on Feb. 5, 2026, headline risk around M&A and governance may shape sentiment in the interim—but the market’s verdict will likely come down to the same scoreboard it always does for integrated energy majors: cash flow, buybacks, dividends, and execution. ^[29]