December 26, 2025 — Shell plc stock is heading into the final stretch of the year with a familiar tug-of-war shaping sentiment: aggressive capital returns and resilient deepwater projects on one side, and a softer oil-price outlook plus renewed takeover chatter on the other.
With holiday-thinned trading conditions in late December, the market’s focus has shifted toward what investors can actually measure over the next few weeks: buyback execution, near-term operational catalysts in the U.S. Gulf, and the next earnings and dividend checkpoints early in 2026. [1]
Shell stock price today: where SHEL stands heading into year-end
Shell’s U.S.-listed ADR (NYSE: SHEL) most recently closed at $72.84 in the last session ahead of Christmas (Dec. 24, 2025, which featured an early close), with after-hours quotes near $72.80. [2]
The stock’s recent 12-month trading range has been roughly $58.54 to $77.47, underscoring how much “energy macro” still matters even for a mega-cap that’s leaning hard into shareholder returns. [3]
The biggest Shell stock story on Dec. 26: the BP “no-bid” clock runs out
One of the most headline-grabbing developments tied to today’s date is structural, not operational: the six‑month restriction that limited Shell’s ability to bid for BP (after Shell publicly said it was not considering a bid) lifts on December 26.
A Reuters report (citing the Financial Times) said Shell’s M&A chief Greg Gut left after leadership blocked an internal proposal earlier this year to buy BP—and noted CEO Wael Sawan’s resistance as a sign Shell is unlikely to pursue a deal when the curbs expire. Sawan has also repeatedly argued that buying back Shell shares is a better use of capital than a mega-merger. [4]
Why it matters for SHEL investors now: even if no deal materializes, “BP bid speculation” can move energy megacaps in thin year-end markets—because it reframes Shell as a potential consolidator and forces investors to think about capital allocation trade-offs (buybacks vs. acquisitions).
Capital returns: buybacks remain Shell’s loudest signal to the market
Shell’s message to investors in 2025 has been consistent: return cash, shrink the share count, and keep optionality for the long game.
- Shell announced a $3.5 billion share buyback program starting Oct. 30, 2025, intended to run for roughly three months and (subject to market conditions) be completed before the company’s Q4 2025 results. [5]
- Reuters reported in October that Shell’s buybacks have exceeded $3 billion for 16 consecutive quarters, and that dividends plus buybacks put trailing four-quarter shareholder payouts at 48% of operating cash flow—within Shell’s targeted payout range. [6]
- Earlier in 2025, Shell also raised its shareholder distribution ambition to 40%–50% of cash flow from operations (from 30%–40%) and trimmed its investment budget range through 2028—another step toward prioritizing cash generation and returns. [7]
For stock performance, buybacks can act like a steady “bid” under the shares—especially when markets are noisy. But they also raise the bar: investors will be watching whether buybacks remain comfortably funded across a potentially weaker oil-price tape in 2026.
U.S. Gulf catalysts: a discovery, a new investment decision, and fresh lease acreage
Shell’s deepwater story has quietly become one of the company’s most investor-friendly narratives: large, long-life barrels and infrastructure tiebacks that can work even when commodity prices aren’t booming.
1) Nashville discovery: Shell-operated Norphlet oil find
INEOS Energy announced a new Norphlet oil discovery at the Shell-operated Nashville well in the U.S. Gulf, with Shell holding 79% working interest and INEOS 21%. INEOS said the well confirmed high-quality oil and could potentially be tied back to Shell’s nearby Appomattox platform. [8]
Discoveries don’t equal immediate cash flow, but tieback potential matters: it can shorten time-to-first-oil and improve project economics—often a positive for valuation.
2) Kaikias waterflood: extending Ursa and adding barrels
Reuters reported Shell took a final investment decision on a waterflood project at its Kaikias field in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, expected to add 60 million barrels of oil equivalent to recoverable resources, with first injection slated for 2028, extending the life of Shell’s Ursa platform. [9]
3) Lease Sale BBG1: the U.S. offshore map expands again
The U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) said its Dec. 10, 2025 Lease Sale BBG1 generated $300,425,222 in high bids for 181 blocks, with 30 companies submitting 219 bids totaling $371,881,093 across a very large Gulf acreage footprint. [10]
The Associated Press similarly reported the sale drew about $300 million in bids and included majors such as Shell among participants. [11]
Meanwhile, Reuters analysis noted the sale generated about $100 million less in high bids than the last Gulf lease sale in 2023, but that companies bid more per acre than at any government auction in the region since 2017—suggesting competition for the best blocks remains intense even in a mixed oil-price environment. [12]
The oil-price backdrop: why 2026 forecasts are suddenly the main character
Energy stocks can do a lot—buy back shares, optimize portfolios, execute megaprojects—but the commodity tape still sets the mood. And the mood going into 2026 is… cautious.
On Dec. 26, Reuters reported Brent crude at about $62.29 a barrel and WTI around $58.41, with oil on track for steep annual declines (Reuters cited roughly 16% down for Brent and 18% for WTI in 2025). [13]
For forward expectations:
- A Reuters poll of economists and analysts projected Brent averaging $62.23 in 2026 and WTI $59.00—both under pressure from expected oversupply. [14]
- The U.S. EIA (Short-Term Energy Outlook released Dec. 9, 2025) forecast Brent falling to an average of about $55 per barrel in Q1 2026 and remaining near that level for the rest of next year, citing rising inventories. [15]
- The IEA, via Reuters, still sees supply growth outpacing demand in 2026, even after trimming its surplus view; Reuters reported the IEA projected 2026 demand growth of 860,000 bpd and supply rising 2.4 million bpd next year. [16]
- Reuters also reported JPMorgan’s commodities research expects oil surpluses in 2025 to widen further into 2026 and 2027, with supply growth projected to outpace demand growth materially through 2026. [17]
What this means for Shell stock: if oil prices drift lower, Shell’s buyback pace and dividend resilience become the key “proof points.” Investors will want to see that capital returns are still comfortably funded—without silently rebuilding leverage.
SHEL analyst forecasts: price targets, ratings, and what Wall Street is signaling
Analyst targets are not prophecy, but they’re a useful map of what expectations are already “priced into” a stock.
Consensus view: moderate optimism, not euphoria
MarketBeat’s compiled consensus (22 analysts) shows Shell with a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average 12‑month price target of $79.91 (with targets ranging from $70 to $91), implying high-single-digit upside from the low-$70s. [18]
Notable rating action: Bank of America steps back
MarketBeat also reported that Bank of America downgraded Shell from “buy” to “neutral” in early December—while noting the broader analyst consensus still leaned “Moderate Buy.” [19]
The wider distribution: big ranges reflect big uncertainty
A Nasdaq article (attributed to Fintel reporting) cited an average one‑year price target around $88.90, but with an unusually wide range (low $72.57 to high $164.79), illustrating how differently analysts and models can value integrated majors depending on assumptions about oil, LNG, and capital returns. [20]
Growth expectations: modest revenue, stronger EPS leverage
Simply Wall St (based on analyst coverage) suggests Shell is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by about 8.4% and 1.3% per year, respectively, with EPS expected to grow faster (around 15.1% per year)—a pattern consistent with buybacks and operational leverage doing a lot of the heavy lifting. [21]
Key upcoming dates: what investors will watch next
Shell has already pinned the next major catalyst to the calendar:
- Q4 2025 results and Q4 interim dividend announcement:February 5, 2026 at 07:00 GMT (08:00 CET / 02:00 EST). [22]
- Shell’s published dividend timetable shows (for Q4 2025) the ordinary-share ex-dividend date as February 19, 2026, and the ADS ex-dividend date as February 20, 2026 (with the record date also Feb. 20). [23]
Given Shell’s buyback program is intended to complete prior to the Q4 results announcement (subject to market conditions), that February reporting window is also when investors may assess the net impact of buybacks, commodity pricing, and operational performance in late 2025. [24]
Bottom line for Shell plc stock on Dec. 26, 2025
As of today, Shell stock’s near-term narrative is unusually crisp for an oil major:
- Capital returns are still the core pitch (and buybacks remain the company’s preferred lever). [25]
- Deepwater Gulf developments are adding long-life optionality—from the Nashville discovery to the Kaikias life-extension plan and newly auctioned offshore acreage. [26]
- M&A speculation is back on the table purely because the BP “no-bid” restriction ends today—whether or not Shell actually does anything about it. [27]
- Oil-price forecasts for 2026 are the main external risk variable, with credible forecasters split between “moderate pressure” and “meaningful downside,” even as geopolitical disruptions can still spike prices. [28]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.shell.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.ineos.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.boem.gov, 11. apnews.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.eia.gov, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. simplywall.st, 22. www.shell.com, 23. www.shell.com, 24. www.shell.com, 25. www.shell.com, 26. www.ineos.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.eia.gov
