New York, Feb 3, 2026, 10:54 EST
- Jefferies maintained a Hold rating on Shopify, setting a $160 price target and pointing to “solid” Q4 fundamentals ahead of the earnings report.
- After January’s drop sent the stock to its lowest point in almost six months, traders are now looking for a bounce back.
- A Seeking Alpha contributor raised Shopify to a “buy,” highlighting AI-powered “agentic commerce” and the company’s optimistic Q4 growth forecast.
Jefferies called Shopify’s fourth-quarter fundamentals “solid,” citing third-party data that hints at an earnings beat on gross merchandise value, the total worth of goods sold via the platform. Tipranks
The call comes as Shopify’s stock tries to regain footing after slipping in January. Shares dipped to a nearly six-month low on Friday but bounced back 1.8% to $133.59 in Monday trading, according to Schaeffer’s Investment Research. Schaeffersresearch
Why this matters now: Shopify is set to release its holiday quarter results next week, with investors zeroing in on just two key metrics — growth and margin. Given the stock’s history of rarely trading at a discount, even a slight stumble could quickly impact its share price.
Jefferies analyst Samad Samana maintained a Hold rating with a $160 price target, per TipRanks’ summary of the note. The firm highlighted gross merchandise value as a key metric showing potential upside.
On the charts, Schaeffer’s pointed out that the stock is hovering close to a long-term trend signal linked to its 260-day moving average, highlighting previous occasions when this pattern led to gains a month down the line. The firm also flagged Shopify’s 14-day relative strength index — a momentum measure — at 16.4, a reading many traders consider “oversold.”
Technical indicators such as RSI and average true range (ATR), which gauges volatility, don’t forecast earnings. Yet they influence how traders position themselves ahead of earnings reports, particularly when a stock has been falling and short-term investors seek a trigger to cover their shorts.
Danil Sereda, in a separate Seeking Alpha earnings preview, upgraded Shopify to a “buy” rating ahead of its report. He described the company’s AI initiatives as hitting an “agentic commerce” inflection point—essentially software that can act more independently for merchants and shoppers. Sereda pointed to management’s Q4 outlook, which calls for 25%-29% sales growth year-on-year and 20%-25% gross profit growth. Seekingalpha
Shopify plans to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings before the market opens on Feb. 11. A conference call is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. Shopify
But the risk is clear in the ratings: Jefferies isn’t backing the stock. If GMV or gross profit fall short, or guidance points to a deeper post-holiday slump, what looks like an “oversold” opportunity could quickly flip into a trap.
Investors will be focused on fresh data about demand trends, payments, and other merchant services. They’ll also look closely to see if Shopify’s AI tools lead to higher take rates or reduced costs — key factors that could determine if the stock’s rebound sticks beyond the earnings report.
