New York, February 11, 2026, 07:57 (EST)
- Shopify put out a forecast for first-quarter revenue, aiming for growth in the low-thirties percent range. The company also kicked off a $2 billion buyback program.
- Revenue for the fourth quarter jumped 31% to $3.67 billion. Gross merchandise volume reached $123.8 billion.
- The company’s outlook for Q1 calls for a slimmer free cash flow margin compared to the same quarter last year.
Shopify projected first-quarter revenue would increase by a little over 30%, and on Wednesday, the board cleared a $2 billion buyback. That move sent U.S. shares up more than 7% in premarket hours. Bloomberg flagged the stock’s early gains after Shopify topped revenue estimates.
Guidance is in focus here, with investors eager for clear reads on online demand after what’s been a rough opening to the year for plenty of growth names. Shopify pulls from both small merchants and big-name brands, so its holiday-quarter figures usually end up being a proxy for trends across digital retail, payments, and logistics spending.
Shopify is sounding optimistic, despite the backdrop of macroeconomic noise. The company’s projection tops Wall Street’s estimate of around 25% growth for the quarter, Reuters said, while tariff questions and inflation pressures linger over consumer spending.
Analysts had pegged fourth-quarter revenue at roughly $3.60 billion and projected adjusted earnings per share of $0.51, as highlighted in a StockStory preview picked up by several media outlets. Shopify’s actual revenue for the quarter ended Dec. 31 came in at $3.67 billion, beating those expectations.
Shopify’s gross merchandise volume hit $123.8 billion for the period. Free cash flow landed at $715 million, putting the margin at 19%—that’s a slip from last year’s 22%.
Merchant solutions revenue came in at $2.90 billion, up from $2.15 billion. Subscription solutions reached $777 million, compared to $666 million a year earlier. Operating income increased to $631 million.
Shopify posted net income of $743 million for the quarter, down from $1.29 billion in the same period last year. Stripping out equity investment effects, net income came in at $594 million.
Shopify reported $11.56 billion in revenue for the year, with free cash flow at $2.01 billion. The company put 2025 GMV at $378.4 billion, highlighting over 14% U.S. ecommerce market share and a 36% jump in international revenue.
Shopify is projecting gross profit dollars to climb at a high-twenties percentage rate year over year for the first quarter of 2026. The company is looking for operating expenses to land between 37% and 38% of revenue, with stock-based compensation pegged at $140 million.
The company is targeting a free cash flow margin in the low-to-mid teens for the first quarter, a notch under what it’s projecting for Q1 of 2025. That points to potential cooling in cash generation coming off the holiday quarter, even if revenue growth remains strong.
Shopify’s board has cleared a share buyback of up to $2 billion, kicking off Feb. 17, and there’s no set end date. “Financial and operating strength” is how CFO Jeff Hoffmeister framed the decision. The company expects to lean on algorithmic trading instructions—pre-set, and without any quarterly or annual minimum repurchases.
Shopify is rolling out a new slate of tools aimed at helping merchants tap into fresh discovery channels, with a particular focus on AI-powered shopping. President Harley Finkelstein described 2025 as “at full throttle,” calling 2026 the “year of the builders.” The company highlighted products like Sidekick, Catalog, and its Universal Commerce Protocol as key investments behind the push.
Shopify is up against website builders like Wix and BigCommerce, plus it’s feeling the squeeze from bigger platforms that fold payments and commerce functions together. Before the company’s results, Zacks flagged GMV trends and new merchant tools as the main things investors are tracking.
Still, Shopify’s bullish scenario depends on consumers keeping up their spending and the company successfully rolling out additional services in payments, lending, and automation. Management also warned that free cash flow margin should dip in the first quarter. They pointed to potential pitfalls: trade actions, the state of the economy, and the chance of credit losses in merchant lending.
