Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ: SHOP) finished the Christmas Eve session essentially flat, then drifted modestly lower in after-hours trading—an unsurprising setup on one of the quietest, lowest-liquidity trading days of the year.
In the regular session that ended early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 24, 2025, SHOP closed at $169.45, down about 0.05% on the day. After the bell, the stock traded around $168.52 (down roughly 0.55%) as of 4:49 p.m. ET, reflecting the kind of small, headline-sensitive move common in holiday after-hours tape. [1]
The bigger story isn’t a dramatic Shopify headline—it’s the holiday trading calendar, thin volume, and the broader market’s “Santa rally” mood going into the next open. U.S. stocks ended Christmas Eve at record highs in a shortened session, supported by easing-rate expectations and a return of risk appetite. [2]
Shopify stock price check: where SHOP ended the day, and where it traded after hours
Here’s the clean read on price action for Dec. 24, 2025:
- Regular-session close (early close): $169.45 [3]
- After-hours print (as of 4:49 p.m. ET): about $168.52 (about -0.55%) [4]
- Day’s range: $168.12 low to $170.40 high [5]
- Open: $168.79 [6]
- Volume: about 1.74 million shares (notably light, consistent with the holiday session) [7]
- 52-week range: $69.84 to $182.19 (SHOP is ~7% below the 52-week high based on today’s close) [8]
One key takeaway: the after-hours dip is small enough that it can reverse quickly—especially in a tape where a single broker note, macro headline, or large order can move prints disproportionately.
“Tomorrow” isn’t a normal open: markets are closed on Christmas Day
If you’re planning around “tomorrow’s open,” the calendar matters:
- U.S. markets (NYSE/Nasdaq): closed Thursday, Dec. 25 for Christmas; the next full trading session is Friday, Dec. 26. [9]
- Canada (TSX/TSXV):closed Dec. 25 and Dec. 26 (Boxing Day), which matters because Shopify is also listed in Canada as TSX: SHOP. [10]
So the practical setup is: SHOP’s next “real” liquidity event is the U.S. open on Friday, Dec. 26—with two calendar days for headlines to accumulate in between.
What drove the tape today: a record-setting market backdrop, not a Shopify-specific shock
On Dec. 24, the macro mood did a lot of the work:
- The Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs in the holiday-shortened session, extending a multi-day run higher. [11]
- Reuters described light volume typical of Christmas Eve and noted the market focus on Fed cut expectations in 2026 (with traders still parsing incoming labor and growth data). [12]
- Major outlets characterized the session as calm, low-volume, and broadly positive—conditions that often mute single-stock moves unless there’s a clear catalyst. [13]
For Shopify specifically, no single, dominant, company-issued headline defined the Dec. 24 close. Instead, SHOP traded like what it often is in late December: a high-beta consumer-tech/growth proxy that can drift with risk appetite, rates, and broad tech sentiment.
Today’s “forecast” snapshot: what analysts are effectively pricing in for SHOP right now
Even on a quiet news day, investors still check two things before the next session: consensus view and how much upside/downside is left in price targets.
As of today’s widely-circulated brokerage roundups:
- Shopify carries an average “Hold” consensus in one major compilation, with a near-flat implied return versus today’s price. [14]
- One dataset lists an average 12‑month price target around $168.69, with the high end at $200 and the low end at $100—a wide spread that signals real disagreement on valuation and durability of growth. [15]
- Another widely followed estimate set (Zacks) shows targets spanning $110 to $200. [16]
What this means in plain English: SHOP is no longer “cheap enough” to be a consensus slam dunk, but it also has enough believers (and enough operating momentum) that the upside case remains very much alive—especially if Shopify’s margin profile keeps improving while growth stays resilient.
The fundamental Shopify story investors are carrying into the next session
Even though Dec. 24 didn’t deliver a fresh corporate bombshell, Shopify’s stock narrative into year-end still revolves around holiday-quarter commerce strength, payments/merchant monetization, and AI-driven product leverage.
1) Holiday demand: Shopify posted record BFCM numbers this month
In a Form 8‑K filed with the SEC, Shopify published its 2025 Black Friday–Cyber Monday snapshot:
- $14.6 billion in global sales over the BFCM weekend (up 27% year over year; 24% on a constant-currency basis) [17]
- 81+ million customers bought from Shopify-powered brands [18]
- Shop Pay sales up 39% YoY, and 32% of orders used Shop Pay [19]
Why this matters for the stock: these stats feed the bull case that Shopify isn’t just “e-commerce software”—it’s increasingly a commerce operating system + payments layer, with monetization expanding as payments penetration rises.
2) Guidance and margins: growth looks strong, but investment spending is real
In its Q3 reporting cycle, Reuters noted Shopify projected mid-to-high 20% revenue growth for Q4 versus consensus estimates around the low 20s—while also pointing out that costs tied to AI and expansion can pressure margins. [20]
That tradeoff—growth durability vs. margin pressure—is one of the key reasons analyst targets cluster tightly around the current zone even after a strong year.
3) Operational reliability is a quiet risk investors still track
Holiday shopping season also tends to refocus attention on platform stability. Earlier this month, Reuters reported Shopify resolved login issues that affected thousands of users on Cyber Monday, with outage reports peaking around 4,000 and also impacting the UK. [21]
This isn’t presented as a “thesis breaker,” but it’s the kind of operational headline that can matter when the stock is priced for execution.
What to know before the next market session (Friday, Dec. 26)
With U.S. markets closed on Dec. 25, the next open is Friday, Dec. 26—and that gap can change how SHOP trades.
1) Expect headline sensitivity and “gap risk”
Two calendar days without a regular session means:
- macro headlines can pile up (rates, geopolitics, big-tech news),
- and single analyst notes can have an outsized effect in early trading.
The Reuters reminder that markets are open as scheduled on Dec. 26 is important here: there’s no “extra” closure to absorb news—Friday is a normal session. [22]
2) Liquidity and spreads matter more than usual
Today’s low volume was a feature of the day, not a Shopify-specific signal. But thin conditions can persist into the first session after a holiday, especially in early hours—so watch:
- premarket depth,
- opening volatility,
- and whether SHOP holds the mid‑$160s to $170 zone.
(Those levels are not a prediction—just a practical way traders frame the next session given today’s range.)
3) Watch the rate narrative (it still steers growth multiples)
Reuters tied the Christmas Eve rally to expectations for Fed easing in 2026 and resilient data. In high-multiple growth stocks like Shopify, rate expectations can move the multiple even when company fundamentals are unchanged. [23]
4) Keep an eye on “holiday read-through” headlines
Even without new Shopify news, Shopify is often traded off:
- broader e-commerce demand signals,
- payments and consumer-spend narratives,
- and any late-season holiday sales data points that hit the tape.
5) Know which listing you actually trade
Because TSX is closed on Dec. 26, most price discovery will happen through NASDAQ: SHOP that day. That can matter for:
- cross-border arbitrage dynamics,
- and how Canada-based holders manage exposure around the holiday calendar. [24]
Bottom line for Shopify stock after the bell on Dec. 24, 2025
Shopify stock ended Christmas Eve virtually unchanged and slipped modestly after hours—a normal outcome in a low-volume, holiday-shortened session. [25]
The more actionable “before the next open” points are structural:
- The next U.S. session is Friday, Dec. 26 (full day), not Dec. 25. [26]
- The macro tape is risk-on, with record closes and easing expectations in the background. [27]
- Shopify’s recent holiday commerce data (including $14.6B BFCM GMV) remains a core support for the growth narrative, while margins and execution remain the key debate. [28]
As always, forecasts and price targets are opinions—not guarantees—and after-hours moves on a holiday week can be more about liquidity than conviction.
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. shopifyinvestors.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.tsx.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.zacks.com, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.tsx.com, 25. finance.yahoo.com, 26. www.barrons.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.sec.gov
