New York, Feb 15, 2026, 14:16 EST — Market closed
- Shopify ended the session at $112.70, up 1.84%.
- The company’s securities filing shows a share buyback program will kick off Feb. 17.
- Strong revenue growth is on the table, but investors are sizing that up against a cash-flow margin forecast that’s looking softer thanks to increased spending.
Shopify Inc said in a U.S. securities filing its $2 billion stock buyback kicks in Feb. 17, with no set end date. The program limits repurchases to 5% of Shopify’s outstanding Class A subordinate voting shares, according to the filing. Shopify’s U.S. shares (SHOP.O) closed Friday at $112.70, up 1.84%. (SEC)
The timing’s key here: U.S. stock and bond markets are closed Monday for Presidents Day, with trading picking back up Tuesday. Holiday stretches often see thinner liquidity, so traders are eyeing whether the buyback sets the tone when things get going again. (MarketWatch)
Shopify’s back in the fray. Growth remains the pitch, but investors aren’t hesitating to hit the stock when spending starts outpacing profits—something software names know all too well.
Shopify reported on Feb. 11 that its fourth-quarter revenue jumped 31% to $3.67 billion, while gross merchandise volume hit $123.8 billion. Free cash flow margin landed at 19%. For the first quarter, the company is guiding for free cash flow margin in the “low-to-mid teens” and expects revenue growth in the “low-thirties” percent range. “We are launching this share repurchase program from a position of financial and operating strength,” CFO Jeff Hoffmeister said in the release. (SEC)
Shopify has been leaning on an AI-heavy sales pitch lately. President Harley Finkelstein told analysts that “the AI era has now reached commerce,” pointing to a 15-fold jump in orders coming from AI search queries on Shopify stores since January 2025. D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria labeled the results “an excellent” outcome, but noted that broad selling pressure in software stocks was dragging on the story. (Reuters)
Traders tend to care less about the buyback as a headline and more about what it does to flow. A company stepping in to buy can soften volatility at the edges, but if the growth narrative stumbles or margins deteriorate again, investors will still reprice the stock.
Shopify shares have been caught up in the mood swings hitting high-growth tech. Investors are still trying to gauge just how much AI might shift pricing power and keep customers locked in across the software space. The company is in a tight race for merchants and enterprise clients against rivals like Wix and BigCommerce. When interest rates shift, Shopify tends to get lumped in with other pricey growth stocks facing similar risks.
Plenty is on the docket. The Federal Reserve plans to release minutes from its Jan. 27-28 meeting this Wednesday at 2:00 p.m.—a release that tends to shake up rate forecasts and, by extension, valuations for growth stocks. (Federal Reserve)
Still, there’s a risk here. Should the buyback roll out at a sluggish pace — or if investors latch onto the idea that cash-flow margin troubles will stick around due to higher costs — shares might keep sliding, regardless of the company stepping in as a buyer. Plus, a weaker consumer environment would hit merchant volumes and slow GMV growth.
As trading gets underway, investors are set to focus on initial price moves tied to the buyback kickoff, plus any fresh momentum in software stocks after the Fed minutes dropped on Wednesday.
