NEW YORK, Feb 4, 2026, 10:41 EST
- Shopify shares dropped once more Wednesday morning, following a steep decline the previous day
- Analysts remain divided on whether AI-powered “agentic commerce” will boost Shopify’s growth and profits
- A Jefferies analyst highlighted the 4% merchant fee linked to Shopify’s ChatGPT checkout feature as a crucial swing factor
Shopify shares dropped again Wednesday, marking a second straight day of declines as investors digested conflicting analyst opinions on the Canadian e-commerce firm’s move into “agentic commerce” — AI agents that handle searching, selecting, and purchasing products for customers.
The selloff hits Shopify as it pushes its checkout and payments tools into emerging shopping channels, where buyers might skip merchant websites entirely. If AI assistants turn into the new storefronts, Shopify aims to remain the back-end engine that still takes a cut.
The narrative has bolstered Shopify’s valuation, yet it also sparks tough questions about margins, customer relationship control, and the pressure big platforms might put on fee collectors. As earnings approach, investors are fast to penalize any sign of “growth later, costs now.”
Shopify slipped roughly 4.7% to $113.65 in early trading, after closing Tuesday at $119.29. The stock’s decline on Tuesday outpaced the broader market, as growth and software shares took a hit.
Shopify dropped over 8% Tuesday afternoon despite analysts delivering a blend of upgrades and holds, all while highlighting the company’s potential in AI-powered shopping, TipRanks reported.
Jefferies analyst Samad Samana maintained a Hold rating on Shopify with a $160 price target, while Arete’s Rocco Strauss lifted his rating to Buy. Remember, a price target reflects where an analyst thinks a stock might head over time—not a guarantee.
Samana highlighted the 4% fee merchants face when using Shopify’s Instant Checkout on OpenAI’s ChatGPT, labeling Shopify an “agentic commerce beneficiary.” He flagged the fee as a potential hurdle for the channel’s profitability. He also mentioned Shopify’s connections with Alphabet, Google’s parent company, and Microsoft as possible avenues for expanding AI-driven shopping distribution.
“Beyond the economics, investors want clearer insight into the competitive risks after reports surfaced of Amazon’s investment in OpenAI,” Samana said, according to TipRanks. Strauss, in that same report, countered that concerns over AI coding tools eroding Shopify’s competitive moat overlook the “lock-in” effect from its merchant base.
TipRanks noted that Wolfe Research has just downgraded Shopify, citing worries over its valuation. The firm believes the stock already prices in much of the potential from agentic commerce. On Wall Street, Shopify carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus, according to TipRanks. That rating stems from 17 Buys and 10 Holds, with the average price target sitting at $179.56.
The stock kicked off 2026 slipping after a solid 2025. According to The Motley Fool, Shopify has dropped around 16% year-to-date and is trading at roughly 75.7 times forward earnings — a ratio that pits the share price against projected profits — compared to a sector average of 26.3.
Shopify’s core business is expanding rapidly. In its latest quarter, revenue jumped over 30%, while gross merchandise value (GMV)—the total sales volume processed on its platform—hit roughly $92 billion.
Yet the AI-shopping pitch isn’t without risk. Should merchants resist new fees, or if AI platforms funnel buyers to their own marketplaces, Shopify’s growth and take-rate forecasts might face swift headwinds. Rising competition could also push “agentic commerce” into a margin-crunched commodity.
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