New York, January 25, 2026, 16:00 EST — The market has closed.
Shopify Inc shares edged up Friday, closing at $137.89 after a volatile week for growth stocks. Investors are bracing for a packed lineup of macroeconomic data and earnings reports that could shake the market.
As U.S. markets remain closed over the weekend, Shopify shares enter Monday facing a tug-of-war between changing interest rate expectations and a fresh batch of big-tech earnings that could shake risk sentiment. For SHOP, this is key—its price action has resembled a high-beta tech stock rather than a stable retail play.
On Friday, the Dow dropped 0.58%, while the S&P 500 held steady and the Nasdaq edged up 0.28%. Intel’s shares tumbled 17% after issuing a grim outlook, Reuters reported. Julian McManus, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, described the upcoming earnings season as a “show-me” moment, highlighting the pressure on high-flying tech stocks to prove their growth potential. (Reuters)
Shopify’s shares swung between $134.65 and $139.89 on Friday, with roughly 9.6 million shares traded, according to the company’s stock-quote page. The stock remains about 24% off its 52-week peak of $182.19 and has slipped nearly 5% since closing at $144.50 on Jan. 20. (Shopify Investors)
U.S. consumer sentiment delivered a mixed signal for online sales. The University of Michigan’s index ticked up to 56.4 for January’s final reading, yet it remains over 20% lower than the same month last year. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations dipped to 4.0%, according to Reuters. (Reuters)
Shopify’s next big test comes with the holiday quarter. The company reported third-quarter revenue up 32% to $2.84 billion, while free cash flow hit $507 million, marking an 18% free cash flow margin—the portion of revenue left after operating costs and capital expenses. “We build. We ship. We grow,” President Harley Finkelstein said, as Shopify projected fourth-quarter revenue growth in the mid-to-high twenties. (SEC)
Shopify has been pushing an AI-powered growth narrative. Earlier this month, it introduced what it called an “agentic commerce platform” and revealed it co-created the Universal Commerce Protocol with Google, aiming to enable AI agents to interface with merchant checkouts at scale. Ashish Gupta, Google’s VP/GM of Merchant Shopping, noted that “the shift to agentic commerce will require a shared language across the ecosystem.” Shopify also announced that shopping through Google’s AI Mode and the Gemini app will launch soon. (Shopify)
Shopify’s competitive landscape is complicated, straddling software, retail, and payments. When mega-cap tech earnings push the market risk-on, SHOP tends to follow suit. But if sentiment shifts defensive, it can take a sharp hit.
But the situation works both ways. A fresh surge in yields or another policy shock rattling growth could send investors scrambling for cheaper assets — and Shopify’s valuation offers little cushion if holiday-quarter demand or margins disappoint.
The Federal Reserve’s next major event is its two-day policy meeting on Jan. 27-28. The decision will drop at 2:00 p.m. ET on Jan. 28, followed by a press conference half an hour later, at 2:30 p.m. ET, per the Fed’s official calendar. Monday’s open will test whether Shopify can maintain its recent trading range ahead of this key midweek risk. (Federalreserve)
