Shopify stock: What to watch Monday after Google Gemini AI checkout protocol debut

Shopify stock: What to watch Monday after Google Gemini AI checkout protocol debut

New York, Jan 11, 2026, 17:43 EST — Market closed

Shopify Inc (SHOP.O) announced on Sunday that it has teamed up with Alphabet’s Google to create a “Universal Commerce Protocol,” enabling AI assistants to finalize online purchases for merchants. The company also rolled out an “Agentic plan” that opens its Shopify Catalog to brands beyond its own platform. Meanwhile, Microsoft unveiled an updated Copilot checkout designed to guide shoppers “from search to purchase in a single conversation,” according to Microsoft executive Nayna Sheth. (Shopify)

The focus is on what companies refer to as agentic commerce — shopping where software doesn’t just suggest products but also selects items and completes checkout steps. If chatbots take over this front end, Shopify must remain connected to the transaction rails that bring in fees from payments and other merchant services.

Shopify’s shares on Nasdaq ended Friday at $164.48, slipping 2.26%, after fluctuating between $163.03 and $168.91 during the session. On the Toronto Exchange, the stock closed at C$229.03, down 1.89%.

Google announced that UCP, created alongside Shopify and retailers like Etsy and Walmart, will soon enable a new checkout feature on select listings in AI Mode within Search and the Gemini app. Shoppers will pay via Google Pay using stored shipping info, with PayPal integration coming later. The retailer remains the “seller of record,” handling the sale and delivery. (Blog)

The new tools emerged just as the National Retail Federation’s annual convention kicked off in New York on Sunday. Google introduced Gemini, touting it as a way for users to browse and shop without leaving the chat. “The person, the shopper, is in charge,” Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke told the Associated Press. (AP News)

Lutke described the upside as improved discovery. “This kind of serendipity is where the best of commerce happens,” he said to TechCrunch. (TechCrunch)

The bet is on consumers trusting bots to finish purchases. According to a ChannelEngine survey mentioned by Axios, 17% of shoppers are fine with AI handling the checkout. Google executive Vidhya Srinivasan pointed out that “billions of dollars are left in carts every year” due to complicated checkout processes. (Axios)

Investors are zeroing in on the practical details: the speed at which Google launches UCP checkout to merchants, the fees involved, and who holds control throughout the process. They’re also betting on whether Shopify can leverage AI-driven traffic to boost conversion rates. On top of that, traders will keep an eye on whether allowing non-Shopify brands into the Catalog expands product options or just adds another layer of complexity.

NRF 2026 takes place Jan. 11-13 in New York, offering Shopify and its partners extra spotlight to lay out rollout plans. SHOP’s first market test arrives when U.S. trading kicks off Monday, Jan. 12. (Google)

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