Silver Price Forecast for December 2025: Can Silver Hold Above $60 After Its Record Run?

Silver has ripped through historic milestones in December 2025—first clearing $60/oz and then printing fresh all‑time highs near $64–$65/oz—before cooling off on profit‑taking. ^[1] Now, with the metal trading around $62/oz in mid‑December, investors and traders are asking the same question: is this pullback a pause before the next leg higher, or the start of a deeper reset? ^[2]

Below is a news-driven, December‑focused silver price forecast for the rest of December 2025, built from the most recent reporting, bank commentary, and technical analysis published in the last several days.

Silver price today: where XAG/USD stands in mid‑December 2025

As of December 14, 2025, spot silver is hovering around $62 per ounce, after slipping from Friday’s record spike. ^[3]

That pullback follows a dramatic week in which silver briefly hit about $64.64/oz, then dropped toward $61–$62/oz as traders took profits. ^[4]

What just happened: silver’s December 2025 breakout in four trading days

Silver’s “December shock” wasn’t a slow grind—it was a rapid repricing:

Dec. 9: Reuters reported spot silver hit $60/oz for the first time, citing a market deficit and rising demand. ^[5]
Dec. 10: After the Fed’s latest decision, Reuters noted spot silver reached a record around $61.85/oz, with analysts pointing to tight physical conditions and speculative flows. ^[6]
Dec. 11: Reuters reported silver surged again, touching roughly $64.31/oz; Marex analyst Edward Meir described broad momentum spilling into other precious metals. ^[7]
Dec. 12: Reuters said silver hit about $64.64/oz intraday, then slid to around $61.7/oz on profit‑taking and a firmer dollar. ^[8]

That sequence matters for forecasting because it tells you what kind of market this is right now: thin liquidity + tight physical supply + momentum positioning—a mix that can extend rallies… and also punish late entries with abrupt reversals.

What’s driving the silver price forecast for the rest of December 2025?

1) The Fed cut rates again—but signaled caution, keeping volatility alive

A major catalyst for precious metals in early December was the Federal Reserve’s quarter‑point rate cut to a 3.50%–3.75% range, with three dissents—an unusually divided decision that still left markets debating how many additional cuts could arrive in 2026. ^[9]

For silver, the mechanism is straightforward:

Lower policy rates can reduce real yields and pressure the dollar, generally supportive for non‑yielding metals.
But the Fed’s internal split and “data gaps” (delayed reports) keep rate expectations unstable—fuel for big day‑to‑day moves. ^[10]

Next key macro trigger: Reuters flagged the U.S. non‑farm payrolls report due December 16 as a major near‑term catalyst for metals and the Fed path. ^[11]

2) Physical tightness is real—and it’s colliding with tariff uncertainty

A recurring theme across multiple outlets is that silver’s surge is not only “macro”—it’s also physical-market stress:

The Financial Times described a global supply squeeze, noting that even with substantial inventories on Comex, regional shortages have appeared (including in China). ^[12]
Bloomberg (via MINING.com) reported that much of the world’s available silver is sitting in New York, while traders wait for clarity on the U.S. Section 232 probe, which could lead to tariffs or trade restrictions. ^[13]

This matters for December because tariff headlines (or a lack of them) can quickly flip the market from “panic bid” to “normalization.”

A striking line from Bloomberg’s recap: TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali warned the move resembles a risky “blow‑off top,” and suggested a “no tariffs” outcome could sharply change liquidity dynamics. ^[14]

3) Silver is now officially a U.S. “critical mineral,” changing the narrative

One of 2025’s biggest structural headlines: the U.S. Geological Survey’s final 2025 critical minerals list added silver(among 10 new additions). ^[15]

That designation has become part of the market’s storyline because it links silver to:

industrial policy,
supply‑chain security,
and potential trade actions (including Section 232 investigations tied to critical minerals). ^[16]

Reuters explicitly connected silver’s 2025 surge to this “critical minerals” status in recent precious‑metals coverage. ^[17]

4) Industrial demand isn’t just “solar” anymore—AI is now in the conversation

Silver’s demand story has broadened in late 2025:

Reuters data highlights surging solar-linked demand and the difficulty of quickly increasing mine supply (since silver is often produced as a byproduct). ^[18]
Business Insider and Investing.com both emphasized the emerging “AI build‑out” narrative—data centers, advanced chips, electrification—pushing silver back into the spotlight as a strategic industrial input. ^[19]

5) ETF flows + momentum traders can amplify both directions

Several recent reports noted that ETF inflows and momentum-following have helped power the rally. ^[20]

Deutsche Bank commentary, cited by Investopedia, pointed to exceptionally tight industrial availability and rising investor interest, with expectations for ETF-held silver to climb toward prior records (and beyond) into 2026. ^[21]

What analysts are saying right now: caution is rising with the price

Not everyone is cheering the vertical move.

Reuters quoted Commerzbank warning the price increase has become “excessive,” even while arguing the longer‑term fundamentals remain positive due to projected industrial-demand growth. ^[22]
FT reporting (and commentary around it) has also highlighted the speculative element building as attention shifts toward silver after gold’s own record year. ^[23]

This mix—strong structural story + near-term overheating risk—is exactly why forecasting December is more about scenarios than a single number.

Technical outlook: key silver levels to watch in December 2025

A widely shared technical view in the last few days: the trend is bullish, but overstretched.

FXStreet’s December 12 technical analysis noted:

Silver consolidating above $64 after a high near $64.62, with RSI around 75 (overbought). ^[24]
Upside levels: the top of an ascending channel “right above” $65, and a Fibonacci extension around $68.17. ^[25]
Downside supports: near $62.80, then around $61.44, with a key support zone around $60.00–$59.85 (channel support + prior lows). ^[26]

Kitco’s Gary Wagner (commentary published late Dec. 12) also emphasized that profit‑taking after repeated record highs is normal—and argued that while more upside is possible, the rally may face a practical ceiling near $70 unless momentum re-accelerates. ^[27]

Silver price forecast for the rest of December 2025: three scenarios

No forecast is guaranteed—especially in a market that can swing several dollars in a day. But based on this week’s reporting, the Fed calendar, and widely-cited technical levels, here are the most realistic paths for silver into late December.

Scenario 1: Base case — volatile consolidation above $60

What it looks like: silver chops between support and resistance as late‑year liquidity thins and traders digest gains.

A consolidation zone roughly centered around $60–$65 fits both the “support map” from FXStreet and the psychological importance of the new $60 handle. ^[28]
Expect sharp intraday moves around major U.S. data (starting with Dec. 16 payrolls) as markets reprice the Fed path. ^[29]

What would confirm it: silver repeatedly defends dips near the $60–$62 area while failing to sustain breaks above the mid‑$60s. ^[30]

Scenario 2: Bull case — $65 breaks, $68 comes into view

What it looks like: the market treats Friday’s pullback as a reset, then pushes to new highs.

Potential bullish triggers:

a softer dollar / easing yields tied to dovish re‑pricing of the Fed, ^[31]
renewed evidence of physical tightness (lease stress, inventory dislocations), ^[32]
continued ETF inflows and momentum buying. ^[33]

Key levels: FXStreet explicitly flags $65 and then $68.17 as upside reference points. ^[34]
Kitco’s commentary suggests $70 as a plausible (but cautious) upper bound if the metal keeps printing new records quickly. ^[35]

Scenario 3: Bear case — a deeper correction back toward the pre-breakout zone

What it looks like: profit-taking becomes a multi‑day unwind, especially if the dollar strengthens or the market decides the move got too crowded.

Reuters already documented how quickly silver can fall after a record print—dropping from roughly $64.64 toward $61–$62 in the same session. ^[36]

A more extended correction becomes more likely if:

the Fed narrative turns less supportive (higher-for-longer or fewer 2026 cuts priced), ^[37]
the Section 232/tariff fear premium fades, loosening physical-market stress, ^[38]
or positioning is forced out as volatility spikes. ^[39]

Key level that matters most: FXStreet highlights $60–$59.85 as a major support confluence. If that fails, traders often look back to prior breakout milestones—such as the high-$50s area silver reached earlier in December before the $60+ launch. ^[40]

The bottom line for December 2025

Silver’s December 2025 forecast is being shaped by a rare combination: Fed easing + a critical-mineral policy backdrop + signs of physical tightness + a powerful momentum wave. ^[41]

In the near term, the market is sending two messages at once:

The trend is still up (new highs, strong momentum, bullish structural demand story). ^[42]
But the trade is stretched (overbought technicals, growing warnings about excess, and profit‑taking already visible). ^[43]

If you want one practical “December takeaway,” it’s this: $60 has become the line in the sand, while $65–$68 is the upside zone traders are watching if silver re-accelerates before year‑end. ^[44]