NEW YORK, Jan 10, 2026, 12:42 EST — Market closed
- iShares Silver Trust (SLV) rose 3.8% on Friday as spot silver climbed to $79.56 an ounce.
- Traders are bracing for forced selling tied to the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalance through Jan. 15.
- U.S. CPI on Jan. 13 is the next macro test for silver prices and silver-linked stocks.
The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) closed up 3.8% on Friday at $72.38, tracking a rebound in silver prices and lifting a swath of U.S.-listed silver miners. Hecla Mining gained 6.8%, First Majestic Silver rose 5.6% and Pan American Silver added 2.2%, while the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) ended up 2.5%.
That jump matters now because silver has turned jumpy again after a steep run last year, and the market is trying to sort out what is “real” demand and what is flow. Some of the biggest pushes are coming from positioning and index mechanics, not just the day’s headlines.
Next week starts with the two drivers tugging in opposite directions. Softer U.S. data has kept rate-cut bets alive, which tends to help precious metals, but the annual commodity index rebalance has also brought selling pressure that can swamp the tape for a few sessions.
U.S. job growth slowed in December, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 50,000, and the unemployment rate slipping to 4.4%, a weaker set of numbers that did little to shake expectations for easier policy later this year.
Spot silver — the price for immediate delivery — gained 3.5% to $79.56 an ounce on Friday and was on track for about a 9.7% weekly rise, Reuters data showed. “Payrolls are showing us a poor job creation environment,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, pointing to a mix of uncertainty and an “easing Fed” backdrop that has supported precious metals. Reuters
The near-term overhang is the annual Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing, a reshuffle of commodity weights that forces funds tracking the benchmark to adjust positions. RJO Futures senior market strategist Bob Haberkorn said the shift should “put pressure for the next few sessions” on gold and silver, before flows ease later in the week. Reuters
The scale is what has traders cautious. Index-tracking funds are expected to sell about $6.1 billion of silver and $5.6 billion of gold between Jan. 8 and Jan. 15, the Financial Times reported, citing JPMorgan estimates; JPMorgan said the silver selling could amount to roughly 10% of open contracts on Comex, the main U.S. metals futures exchange.
Outside metals, risk markets also leaned against a clean “safe-haven” story. U.S. stocks finished Friday at a record high close and the dollar firmed after the jobs data, a combination that can weigh on non-yielding metals when it pushes up inflation-adjusted yields. Reuters
Some desks are also focused on physical tightness and where the metal sits. Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven warned that thin inventories in London — where the global silver benchmark is set — can create squeeze conditions after bullion was pulled into U.S. vaults on tariff worries; China’s new export approval requirements could add another layer of friction, they wrote in a note cited by Business Insider.
But it can flip quickly. If inflation surprises on the upside or the dollar extends its bounce, momentum money can step back, and the index-driven selling could bite harder than many dip buyers expect.
Technically, the $80 level in spot silver is the obvious line traders keep coming back to, part magnet and part ceiling. For SLV, Friday’s range ran from $70.03 to $72.96, levels that will get an early look when U.S. markets reopen.
The next catalysts come fast: the U.S. consumer price index for December is due on Tuesday, Jan. 13, followed on Wednesday by the Fed’s Beige Book — its survey of regional activity — and a Supreme Court decision on tariffs that markets expect on Jan. 14. The Fed’s next policy meeting runs Jan. 27-28; miners such as Hecla and Pan American are expected to report quarterly results in mid-February, but the first stop for silver prices and silver stocks is the CPI print.
