Silver Price Today, 21 November 2025: Spot XAG/USD Slides Below $49 as Fed Rate‑Cut Hopes Fade

Spot silver is under clear pressure this Friday, 21 November 2025. By late global trading, XAG/USD is hovering just under $49 per ounce, with most live feeds showing an intraday loss of roughly 3–4% after the metal briefly traded above $50 earlier in the session. ^[1]

Even after today’s drop, silver is still dramatically higher than a year ago: one widely followed macro data set has silver up around 57% year‑on‑year and about 1–2% higher over the past month, highlighting how strong the 2025 rally has been. ^[2]

Silver price today: key levels at a glance

Different data providers quote slightly different real‑time prices, but they’re telling a consistent story:

Global spot silver (XAG/USD)
- Last traded around $48.8–$49.2 per ounce, depending on the feed. ^[3]
- Intraday range so far: roughly $48.68 – $50.86. ^[4]
- Previous close: about $50.84, implying a daily drop of roughly 3–3.7%. ^[5]
Momentum context
- Month‑on‑month, silver remains up around 1.5%.
- Year‑on‑year, prices are still up by about 57%, despite today’s correction. ^[6]

In short: silver has given up part of its recent gains but is still trading near the very top of its multi‑year range after hitting record levels above $54.50 earlier in November. ^[7]

Why is silver falling today?

1. Strong U.S. jobs data cools Fed rate‑cut bets

The dominant driver is U.S. labour market data that came in stronger than markets were hoping for if they wanted early rate cuts:

September non‑farm payrolls rose by about 119,000 jobs, more than double many forecasts around 50,000.
Unemployment is holding near 4.4%, not yet signaling a deep slowdown. ^[8]

Stronger labour data has pushed investors to expect fewer or later Fed rate cuts. Several analyses now put the probability of a December cut only around 30–36%, down from roughly 44–50% just days ago. ^[9]

Higher‑for‑longer rates support the U.S. dollar and real bond yields, both of which generally weigh on non‑yielding precious metals like gold and silver. Reuters notes that spot silver is down more than 3% to the high‑$48 area, tracking a broader pullback across the precious‑metals complex. ^[10]

2. Fed minutes point to a divided central bank

This week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the October meeting added to the uncertainty:

Policymakers were split on how aggressively to continue easing, with some members worried about easing too soon while inflation is still above the 2% target. ^[11]
One senior Fed official also warned that further cuts could risk reigniting inflation, reinforcing a cautious stance. ^[12]

Indian financial media summarised it bluntly: fading expectations of a near‑term U.S. rate cut are “tumbling” gold and silver prices and keeping domestic bullion under pressure. ^[13]

3. PMI data and the U.S. dollar in focus

Traders are now watching flash PMI surveys for manufacturing and services:

Forecasts point to slightly softer but still‑expansionary U.S. PMIs. ^[14]
If PMIs surprise on the upside, they may reinforce dollar strength and keep silver pinned near support.
A downside surprise could do the opposite, giving silver room for a relief bounce.

One intraday note from FX Leaders describes silver trading around $49.60 in early European trade, sliding as labour data lifted the dollar and shifted sentiment in favour of further dollar strength. ^[15]

Technical picture: pullback after a vertical rally

Even with today’s sell‑off, the technical backdrop for silver is that of a correction within a strong uptrend, rather than a confirmed reversal—at least for now.

From record highs back to support

FXEmpire’s daily charts show that spot silver recently pulled back from record highs near $54.50, but is still holding above a rising 50‑day simple moving average, with support clustered around $49.30. A decisive break below roughly $45 would be a bigger warning that the bullish structure is breaking down. ^[16]

Twelve Data’s historical table reinforces the idea of volatility around a rising trend:

Nov 21, 2025: open $50.84, high $50.86, low $48.68, close $48.99 (‑3.65%).
Earlier in November, multiple sessions closed comfortably above $50, with several days above $51–53. ^[17]

Key support and resistance levels traders are watching

Across today’s technical reports, several price zones keep showing up:

Immediate support
- $49.30–49.50 – Daily chart support and 4‑hour consolidation floor highlighted by FXEmpire and Forex24. ^[18]
- $49.06 – A break and close below here opens downside targets toward $47.99 and potentially $47.03, according to FX Leaders’ short‑term analysis. ^[19]
- $47.00–47.50 – DailyForex and others flag this area as a more critical medium‑term support: losing it would signal a deeper correction. ^[20]
Overhead resistance
- $51.50–52.00 – DailyForex notes a failed breakout attempt above this band, calling it a “crucial” ceiling after recent double‑top behaviour. ^[21]
- $54.50 – Recent record high and major resistance on FXEmpire’s daily chart. ^[22]
- $55.15 and above $57.45 – Forex24’s triangle pattern sees these zones as potential upside targets if the bullish scenario resumes after a correction. ^[23]

Forex24’s triangle analysis still leans cautiously bullish: it expects a test of support near $49.45, followed—if support holds—by a renewed push toward the mid‑$50s. A break below the mid‑$46s would invalidate that bullish scenario. ^[24]

By contrast, FX Leaders emphasises that the short‑term structure has turned bearish, with price slipping below an upward trendline and momentum oscillators leaning in favour of sellers unless the market can reclaim the $50–51 zone. ^[25]

Silver price today in major local markets

While global spot prices are quoted in U.S. dollars per ounce, most households and jewellers think in local currencies and units. Here’s what today’s move looks like on the ground.

India: MCX futures and physical silver

Indian markets are mirroring the global downtick.

On MCX futures:

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), December 2025 silver futures fell about 1.5–1.7% in early trade.
- The Economic Times reported December silver around ₹1,51,810 per kilogram, down about ₹2,341 on the day. ^[26]
- GoodReturns’ live blog recorded December futures at roughly ₹1,51,536 per kg, down ₹2,615 (‑1.7%), and the March 2026 contract around ₹1,54,709, also off about 1.7%. ^[27]

Physical bullion prices (IBJA):

The Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) fixed the 999‑purity silver rate at about ₹1,51,375 per kilogram in its 12:30 p.m. session, a drop of roughly 1.78% from the previous close near ₹1,54,813. ^[28]
IBJA data also show that domestic silver peaked around ₹1,63,808 per kg on 13 November 2025, underlining how sharp the earlier run‑up has been. ^[29]

Taken together, Indian benchmarks confirm that today’s global downside is being passed through almost one‑for‑one into rupee prices, with some extra sensitivity coming from USD/INR moves.

Indonesia: silver jewellery prices hold steady

In Jakarta, silver’s weakness on global markets has not yet translated into a big retail move:

Pintu News reports silver jewellery selling prices at IDR 25,672 per gram, with the buy‑back price at IDR 23,204 per gram, largely unchanged compared with recent days. ^[30]
Popular local options include Antam pure silver bars and “Heritage” silver bars, where listed prices already reflect Indonesia’s 11% VAT on bullion products. ^[31]

Retail jewellery prices tend to adjust more slowly than spot, because shops price in making charges, margins and existing inventory costs.

Nepal: local prices under pressure too

In Nepal, the local dealers’ association has also cut today’s silver rate:

The Nepal Gold and Silver Dealers’ Association set the silver price at NPR 3,100 per tola, down NPR 85 from Thursday’s level, citing international price weakness. ^[32]

Again, the pattern is consistent: local markets are taking their cue from the sharp drop in global spot prices, but the exact percentage move depends on taxes, import costs and local demand.

What analysts are saying about silver’s outlook

1. “Correction, not collapse” – structural trend still bullish

Several research notes today share a similar overarching message: the macro story that pushed silver above $50 this year hasn’t disappeared, even if the short‑term move is lower.

FXEmpire emphasises that silver is pulling back from record territory but still respects key moving averages and uptrend support, suggesting a pause within a bigger bull market rather than the end of it. ^[33]
HSBC’s October forecast—made when prices were much lower—envisioned an average silver price of $38.56 for 2025, up from earlier projections on the back of strong gold, renewed investor demand and volatility. Spot prices now far exceed that average, showing just how intense the rally has been. ^[34]

Behind that structural strength are familiar themes:
growing demand for solar panels and green technologies, electronics, and potentially AI‑driven infrastructure—all of which use silver—plus ongoing interest from investors looking for diversification away from fiat currencies and equities.

2. Short‑term tone: cautious and data‑dependent

Short‑horizon trading commentary is more bearish or at least tactically defensive:

DailyForex highlights a failed push above $51.50, describing intraday price action as “volatile” and warning that a sustained break below $47 would be a stronger negative signal. ^[35]
FX Leaders points to a newly developing downtrend on intraday charts after silver slipped below a rising trendline, suggesting that sellers remain in control while spot trades below about $50.5. Targets around $47.99 and $47.03 are mentioned if support at $49.06 gives way. ^[36]
Forex24’s triangle‑pattern analysis is more optimistic, framing the drop toward $49.45 as a potential buy‑the‑dip opportunity in a broader bullish structure, unless prices decisively break below the mid‑$46s. ^[37]

FXStreet and others add that traders are now highly sensitive to every macro data release—jobs, inflation, PMIs and Fed communication—because these shape the path of real interest rates and thus the opportunity cost of holding silver. ^[38]

What this means for traders and long‑term investors

(Information only – not financial advice.)

Today’s move has a few clear takeaways:

Fed expectations are still in the driver’s seat
As long as markets believe the Fed is in “wait‑and‑see” mode, silver is likely to remain headline‑driven and volatile. Strong data that pushes rate‑cut expectations out tends to weigh on silver; weaker data can spark sharp bounces.
The trend is up, but the path is noisy
With silver still up around 50%+ year‑on‑year, it’s not surprising to see sizeable pullbacks. That’s normal behaviour for a commodity in a strong trend, not necessarily a sign the trend is over. ^[39]
Key zones to watch
- On the downside: $49.30–49.50, $49.06, then $47–46.5 as increasingly important support bands. ^[40]
- On the upside: $51.50–52.00, then the $54.50–55.50 zone near recent highs. ^[41]
Local buyers should think in local terms
If you’re in India, Indonesia, Nepal, or any other local market, you’re ultimately dealing with local taxes, currency moves and jewellery premiums. Those can soften—or amplify—the USD move you see in global headlines. ^[42]
Risk management matters more than the “perfect” entry
Professional analysis published today repeatedly stresses position sizing, patience and contingency plans. Any trade—long or short—on a volatile commodity like silver should plan for large swings in both directions, especially around major economic releases. ^[43]

Before making any investment or trading decision, it’s important to check up‑to‑the‑minute prices on your own platform, consider your risk tolerance and, where appropriate, speak with a qualified financial adviser.

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