Silver is cooling off after an explosive run to fresh records this week, with profit-taking and a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation print reshaping the day’s trade. As of 4:14 PM ET on December 18, spot silver was $65.61 per ounce, down $0.76 (-1.16%) on the day, according to JM Bullion’s live spot pricing. [1]
That late-day pullback came after silver briefly traded closer to the mid-$66 area earlier Thursday before sliding, as traders digested fresh macro data and repositioned ahead of the next stretch of central-bank and economic catalysts. [2]
Silver price today: where XAG/USD stands right now
Here’s the most actionable snapshot investors and traders are using as the market heads into the evening:
- Spot silver: $65.61/oz at 4:14 PM ET (day: -1.16%) [3]
- XAG/USD daily range: $64.6425 to $66.6255 (spot silver vs U.S. dollar) [4]
- 52-week range (XAG/USD): $28.1583 to $66.8965 [5]
- Record context: silver hit an all-time high around $66.88–$66.89 in the prior session, depending on the feed [6]
Silver’s pullback doesn’t change the headline story of 2025: the metal remains up roughly 125%–130% year-to-dateacross widely followed benchmarks. [7]
What moved silver on Dec. 18? CPI shock, rate-cut repricing, and profit-taking
Thursday’s biggest catalyst was U.S. inflation.
Reuters reported that U.S. CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year in November, below the 3.1% consensus forecast, a downside surprise that nudged markets toward more Fed rate-cut pricing for early 2026. [8]
Silver’s reaction was a classic “two-step” move:
- Lower inflation can reduce immediate “inflation-hedge urgency” (one reason precious metals sometimes dip right after a soft CPI).
- But lower inflation also tends to pull yields down and revive rate-cut bets, which can support non-yielding metals—especially if the U.S. dollar softens.
In the session after CPI, Reuters noted spot silver fell about 1.5% to ~$65.3/oz (2:26 PM ET), backing off the prior day’s record. [9]
Currency and rate markets mattered too. Reuters also reported the dollar lost ground against safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc after the CPI miss, which typically helps dollar-priced commodities at the margin. [10]
And the broader risk backdrop was shifting: global equities rose and Treasury yields dipped as investors recalibrated toward easier policy, even as “AI sentiment” remained a tug-of-war in stocks. [11]
Central banks added fuel: BoE cuts, ECB holds, and global easing stays on the radar
Silver is highly sensitive to the global cost of money—not just the Fed.
On Thursday, the Bank of England cut rates by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%, a move Reuters said was decided by a tight vote, and policymakers signaled the path ahead may remain gradual. [12]
In parallel, Reuters coverage highlighted that Europe’s rate outlook and Japan’s policy expectations remain central to currency and yield moves—variables that ripple into precious metals through real rates and the dollar. [13]
Why silver’s rally is still the story of 2025
Even after Thursday’s dip, silver remains one of the standout “macro + industrial” trades of the year.
A Reuters “perfect storm” breakdown (republished by Kitco) points to a mix of drivers behind silver’s surge:
- Robust investment demand
- Momentum buying in a market that can move fast because it’s smaller and less liquid than gold
- Supply deficit concerns
- And an additional tailwind from silver’s inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list [14]
That same report highlighted a key point for 2026: inventories outside the U.S. were described as less plentiful, which can amplify price sensitivity if investment flows stay strong. [15]
Industrial demand watch: solar’s role, and what China’s outlook could mean
Silver isn’t just a monetary metal—it’s deeply tied to manufacturing, electrification, and solar demand.
On December 18, Reuters reported that China’s solar industry is still dealing with overcapacity and uncertain forward demand. A Sinolink Securities analyst cited expectations that new solar installations could range from 185 GW to 275 GW in 2026, after a projected record 285 GW in 2025. [16]
Why that matters for silver:
- If installations stay near the high end, it reinforces the “industrial tightness” narrative.
- If installations slump toward the low end, it could cool one pillar of demand expectations—especially if the market is priced for perfection after a year like 2025.
Silver price forecast: what technical analysts are watching into year-end
With silver sitting near record territory, short-term calls are increasingly technical: where support holds, where breakouts trigger, and where momentum looks stretched.
TMGM’s market note described silver as trading around $65.75–$65.70 during the Asian session Thursday, down over 1% on the day, and pointed to an overbought RSI as a key reason for profit-taking—while still arguing the broader setup favors “dip-buying” if key levels hold. [17]
FXLeaders’ technical roadmap framed it similarly: the bullish structure remains intact as long as silver holds above ~$65, with resistance near ~$66.95 and a possible extension toward $68.50 if that resistance breaks decisively. [18]
Key levels traders are watching (based on today’s technical commentary):
- Support zone: ~$65 (bullish bias above) [19]
- Near-term breakout trigger: ~$66.95 [20]
- Upside target on breakout: ~$68.50 [21]
2026 outlook: $70 is the “base case” target — and $75 is on the table
While day-to-day price action is choppy, the big debate is whether 2025’s breakout becomes 2026’s new floor—or whether silver needs a deeper reset first.
Two frequently cited forecasts in today’s news cycle:
- Reuters reported that some analysts expect silver to test $70/oz in 2026, especially if rate cuts continue supporting precious metals. [22]
- In a Reuters “perfect storm” piece (via Kitco), WisdomTree commodities strategist Nitesh Shah was quoted saying silver could move toward ~$75/oz by the end of next year (2026). [23]
That puts the market’s “bull lane” for 2026 in a relatively tight band: $70–$75—but with the usual silver caveat: the metal often overshoots in both directions.
Not everyone is chasing the rally: “take profits” calls are getting louder
Big percentage years often invite mean-reversion warnings, and silver has delivered a massive one.
A MarketWatch report published December 18 cited Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Spectra Markets strategists arguing that silver looks overextended, with some recommending taking profits after the extraordinary run. The piece noted historical patterns of weaker forward returns after 100%+ annual gains, even when the long-term story remains constructive. [24]
This doesn’t necessarily contradict the bullish 2026 targets—it highlights timing risk: silver can rise long-term but still deliver sharp drawdowns along the way.
What to watch next (the “silver checklist” for the next 24–72 hours)
If you’re tracking silver price today with an eye on what comes next, these are the catalysts that matter most right now:
- U.S. rate-cut expectations: CPI softened and markets are adjusting; any follow-through in yields matters for silver [25]
- The U.S. dollar: a softer dollar tends to help metals, but FX is highly event-driven into year-end [26]
- Central bank sequencing: BoE has cut; policy signals elsewhere can swing currencies and real-rate expectations [27]
- Industrial demand signals: especially solar installation expectations and China’s capacity decisions [28]
- Positioning/profit-taking risk: after record highs, traders are sensitive to momentum reversals [29]
Bottom line
Silver price today is lower, but not broken. The metal is pulling back from record highs after a softer CPI print and a wave of profit-taking, with spot silver around $65.61/oz (4:14 PM ET) and still up spectacularly in 2025. [30]
The near-term path looks like a tug-of-war between:
- cooling inflation and repositioning (which can spark dips), and
- easing-rate expectations + supply tightness + industrial demand (which have underwritten the year’s historic surge). [31]
For 2026, the most-cited targets in today’s coverage cluster at $70–$75, but strategists are increasingly warning that volatility is part of the package—especially after a year like this. [32]
References
1. www.jmbullion.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.jmbullion.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.kitco.com, 15. www.kitco.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.tmgm.com, 18. www.fxleaders.com, 19. www.fxleaders.com, 20. www.fxleaders.com, 21. www.fxleaders.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.kitco.com, 24. www.marketwatch.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.tmgm.com, 30. www.jmbullion.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com
