December 25, 2025 — Silver prices are pausing near historic highs on Christmas Day, after a blistering year-end rally pushed spot silver into fresh record territory. With many major financial markets shut or running on holiday-thin liquidity, today’s price action is less about fresh positioning and more about consolidation — but the bigger story is that silver has entered what several analysts describe as “price discovery” after breaking multi-year resistance and posting one of its strongest years on record. [1]
Silver price today: where XAG/USD stands on 25.12.2025
Spot silver was around $71.9 per ounce on December 25, 2025, according to TradingEconomics, effectively flat on the day and just below the latest all-time highs logged this week. [2]
That “just below” matters: Reuters reported silver hit an all-time high near $72.70 before easing back toward $71.94 in a modest pullback described as profit-taking after a record run. [3]
Futures snapshots tell a similar holiday story. Investing.com listed silver futures around $71.875 with volume shown as 0—a reminder that Christmas conditions can freeze normal trading and make “today’s” levels look static until liquidity returns. [4]
Why silver is consolidating now — and why the rally happened in the first place
1) Rate-cut expectations are the core tailwind
The dominant macro driver behind precious metals’ year-end surge has been the market’s conviction that U.S. monetary policy will keep easing. Reuters noted the Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2025, and traders were pricing two more cuts next year—a classic supportive backdrop for non-yielding assets like gold and silver. [5]
Other Reuters reporting through the week echoed the same theme: softer labor and inflation signals bolstered the case for additional rate cuts, while analysts highlighted that silver has been “leading” gold at points during the rally. [6]
2) The U.S. dollar’s slump amplified the move
A weaker dollar typically makes dollar-priced commodities more attractive to non-U.S. buyers. Reuters described the dollar as having slumped significantly in 2025, helping to power the precious-metals surge. [7]
3) Geopolitical risk kept “safe-haven” demand alive
Silver is unusual because it straddles two roles: a precious metal with safe-haven appeal and a critical industrial input. Reuters coverage tied the precious-metals rally to rising geopolitical tensions and trade-related uncertainty, including developments linked to Venezuela. [8]
4) The real differentiator: a multi-year physical deficit and tightening inventories
Multiple analysts point to the same structural issue underneath the rally: silver has been running a deficit for years, and physical tightness has become harder to ignore as prices climb.
- Reuters quoted strategists describing a market that has been in deficit for five years, with rising industrial demand reinforcing the squeeze. [9]
- The Silver Institute (citing Metals Focus) estimated the 2025 deficit at about 95 million ounces, marking the fifth successive deficit, with a large cumulative shortfall across 2021–2025. [10]
In a market like silver — smaller than gold and increasingly demanded by industry — persistent deficits can create the kind of “air pocket” dynamics that turn rallies into breakouts.
Industrial demand is no longer a side story — it’s the main plot
Silver’s industrial profile is central to the bullish thesis because it links the metal to long-duration themes like electrification and data infrastructure.
ING emphasized that industrial demand accounts for more than half of total silver consumption, and while solar growth may slow after peak installation years in China, demand tailwinds remain from electrification, grid upgrades, and increased silver content in automotive components (including hybrids and EVs). [11]
IG’s 2026 outlook went further, arguing demand remains broad-based across solar, EVs, semiconductors, 5G, and AI-related power infrastructure, while also highlighting how hard substitution can be in performance-sensitive applications. [12]
Reuters also framed silver’s “perfect storm” as a blend of investment demand and the industrial pull from AI data centers, solar, and EVs, with momentum buying layered on top. [13]
The “flow” problem: China, London, and tariff fears
Holiday sessions hide volatility — but they don’t remove the deeper plumbing issues that can whip silver around when markets reopen.
ING flagged a set of conditions that help explain why silver can spike or gap more aggressively than gold:
- Chinese exchange-linked stockpiles falling toward multi-year lows
- Record Chinese silver exports (ING cited October exports above 660 tonnes)
- Elevated lease rates in London (around 6%, per ING), even after large inflows
- A lingering risk that silver could be caught up in tariff policy, especially after being added to a U.S. “critical minerals” context that could raise the odds of import restrictions [14]
Reuters reporting earlier in the month also linked tariff concerns to physical dislocations and liquidity stress in the London spot market, reinforcing the idea that silver’s rally is not purely “paper-driven.” [15]
2026 silver price forecasts: what major analysts are actually projecting
Forecasts for silver in 2026 are wide — and that dispersion is itself a signal. Silver is historically volatile, and analysts are splitting into two camps: “bank-base-case” pricing and “breakout-extension” pricing.
Bank/strategy forecasts cluster around the mid-to-high $50s (with upside cases)
- Reuters reported Macquarie strategists expect silver to average about $57 per ounce in 2026, citing supply-demand deficits and strong import demand dynamics. [16]
- IG’s 2026 outlook said the average of major banks places silver in the $56–$65 range for 2026, describing that as the conservative view. [17]
This is a critical takeaway for readers: even relatively “measured” forecasts still imply silver stays far above the levels that defined most of the pre-breakout decade.
Bullish strategist targets converge around $75 (and sometimes higher)
Several market professionals quoted in Reuters pointed to $75 as a psychologically and technically important milestone:
- Reuters cited Jim Wyckoff (Kitco) pointing to $75/oz as a next upside objective into year-end, while noting technicals remained bullish. [18]
- In another Reuters report, a WisdomTree strategist said silver could gain to close to $75/oz by the end of next year (i.e., end of 2026). [19]
- Reuters also quoted commentary warning that year-end profit-taking could still trigger pullbacks even in a bullish trend. [20]
“Technical extension” scenarios: $72–$88 becomes the map if the breakout holds
IG outlined a more technical pathway: once silver cleared the long-term ceiling and held above it, the next measured-move extensions in their framework pointed to $72 and $88. [21]
One nuance here is timing: silver is already flirting with the low-$70s zone now. That means the “$72” area is no longer a distant projection — it’s becoming a near-term battleground where traders will judge whether the breakout is consolidating or exhausting.
Gold-silver ratio: the “relative value” signal traders keep watching
Silver’s outperformance has also shown up in the gold-silver ratio, a long-followed measure of how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold.
Reuters reported the gold-silver ratio narrowed to around 64 from about 105 in April, reflecting how aggressively silver has caught up during the year-end sprint. [22]
IG noted that long-run historical averages are often discussed in the 40–60 zone, and argued that further compression would imply additional relative strength for silver — even if gold prices merely hold steady. [23]
Technical and short-term analysis for Dec. 25: key levels traders are citing
Because today is holiday-thinned, most technical notes are anchored to the last “normal” session’s close and framed as setups for when markets reopen.
- FXEmpire described silver holding near $71.85, after a pullback from just under $73.80, with an important support zone near $70.20 (and a deeper risk point around the high-$60s). It also noted momentum cooling — more consistent with consolidation than an immediate trend break. [24]
- FXLeaders similarly framed silver near $71.85, calling attention to support levels around $70.75 and $69.55 in holiday conditions where volume is thin. [25]
From a news-reader standpoint, the technical message is straightforward: the uptrend remains intact above the low-$70s/high-$60s supports, but the market is extended enough that sharp pullbacks are possible — especially once liquidity returns and year-end portfolio rebalancing resumes.
A quick note on India’s silver market (MCX): bullish breakout language dominates
India is a key demand center for physical silver, and local-market commentary has turned increasingly bullish.
The Times of India highlighted analyst commentary pointing to a breakout structure in MCX Silver, with support near 215,000 and an upside target around 240,000 (pricing in rupees terms on the exchange). [26]
Even for global readers who don’t trade MCX, this matters because India’s import demand and retail participation can influence physical flows — a theme Reuters has also referenced in discussing drivers of silver’s record highs. [27]
What could move silver next: 5 catalysts to watch after the holiday
- Fed repricing: If markets reduce expectations for 2026 cuts, silver can drop fast. If cuts look more likely, the rally can re-accelerate. [28]
- Dollar direction: A renewed dollar decline tends to support metals; a sharp dollar rebound can cap upside. [29]
- Geopolitics and trade policy: Venezuela-linked headlines and broader tariff uncertainty have already been cited as tailwinds for safe-haven demand. [30]
- Physical tightness signals: Watch inventories, lease rates, and cross-region flows (London–U.S.–China). ING’s work suggests this “plumbing” can matter as much as macro. [31]
- Industrial demand prints: Solar, grid, EV, and AI data-center buildouts remain key demand narratives — but any evidence of a sharper slowdown could hit sentiment given silver’s industrial exposure. [32]
Bottom line: Silver’s 2025 breakout is real — but the ride into 2026 is likely to stay wild
As of December 25, 2025, silver is consolidating near $72/oz, after printing fresh records and capping a year defined by falling-rate expectations, a weaker dollar, geopolitical risk, and a widely cited multi-year supply deficit. [33]
For 2026, mainstream forecasts cluster around the mid-to-high $50s on average (with upside cases), while several strategists continue to flag $75 as a plausible milestone if macro tailwinds and physical tightness persist. [34]
The caution is embedded in the same story: silver’s market structure and dual-demand profile make it prone to steep corrections, especially when positioning gets crowded — meaning the next leg up, if it comes, may not be a straight line. [35]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. tradingeconomics.com, 2. tradingeconomics.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. silverinstitute.org, 11. think.ing.com, 12. www.ig.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. think.ing.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.ig.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.ig.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.ig.com, 24. www.fxempire.com, 25. www.fxleaders.com, 26. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. think.ing.com, 32. think.ing.com, 33. tradingeconomics.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com
