NEW YORK (Updated: Dec. 16, 2025 | 2:15 PM EST) — Silver prices are easing in early-afternoon trade after a red-hot run to fresh records last week, as traders lock in gains while keeping one eye on U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s 2026 rate path.
Spot silver (XAG/USD) was last seen hovering in the mid-$63s per ounce—about $63.75 in early afternoon New York trading—after pulling back from last Friday’s record high near $64.65. [1]
Even with today’s pause, silver’s 2025 performance remains exceptional: the metal is still up roughly 118% year-to-date, underscoring how quickly sentiment has shifted toward precious metals that also sit at the heart of electrification and clean-tech supply chains. [2]
Silver price today: where spot silver is trading now
Silver’s intraday action on Dec. 16 has been defined by a familiar mix: profit-taking after new highs versus support from a softer U.S. dollar and expectations for easier policy ahead.
Here are the key levels market participants are watching today:
- Spot silver: around $63.75/oz in early afternoon trade, modestly lower on the day. [3]
- Current XAG/USD reference rate: around 63.8095, with an intraday range roughly 62.1895 to 64.1810 (quotes vary by venue and timestamp). [4]
- FXStreet reference price: $63.15/oz, with silver still showing a ~118.56% gain for 2025 and a gold/silver ratio near 67.85. [5]
Why the numbers don’t match exactly: “Silver price today” can look slightly different depending on whether you’re viewing spot, futures, or a broker’s XAG/USD feed, and on the timestamp of the quote. (Spot is the cash market reference; futures reflect delivery months and can price in carrying costs and positioning.)
Why silver is pulling back after a record high
After a multi-week surge, silver is behaving like a market that has run hard and is now digesting gains.
Reuters’ early-afternoon pricing reflected a mild dip to about $63.75/oz, explicitly characterizing the move as a retreat from Friday’s record high near $64.65. [6]
At the same time, a separate Reuters market update earlier in the day showed silver down more sharply—an illustration of how quickly intraday swings can develop when liquidity thins and traders reposition ahead of major data releases. [7]
The big picture: silver is not collapsing—it’s consolidating after entering “price discovery” territory, where traditional resistance levels matter less and positioning can amplify day-to-day moves.
The macro drivers moving silver on Dec. 16
1) U.S. labor data and the Fed’s 2026 rate-cut expectations
Markets got fresh signals from U.S. labor data that point to a cooling (but not cratering) economy. Reuters reported nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November while unemployment increased to 4.6%, with the data complicated by distortions following a lengthy government shutdown. [8]
Why this matters for silver:
- Lower expected rates typically support non-yielding assets like precious metals.
- A weaker dollar tends to make dollar-priced commodities more affordable for non-U.S. buyers.
Reuters noted that rate futures are still pricing roughly two cuts in 2026 (about 59 bps of easing implied), reinforcing the “policy tailwind” narrative that has underpinned gold and silver into year-end. [9]
2) The dollar and yields: still supportive, even on down days
On Dec. 16, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields both leaned softer in the broader market backdrop, as investors weighed the jobs data, more economic releases, and major central bank meetings later this week. [10]
A softer dollar isn’t a guarantee that silver rises every hour of the day—but it helps explain why today’s pullback has looked more like a pause than a trend reversal.
3) The next catalysts are inflation and central banks
Traders aren’t only watching jobs data. Reuters flagged the market’s attention on inflation reports including U.S. CPI and PCE—exactly the kind of data that can shift the Fed outlook quickly. [11]
Meanwhile, broader global markets are also positioning for central bank decisions in the UK, euro zone, and Japan this week—events that can move FX markets and, by extension, precious metals. [12]
What today’s analysts are saying: support zones, resistance, and “healthy consolidation”
Technical and tactical commentary published today largely converges on one theme: silver’s uptrend is still intact, but the market is vulnerable to short-term whipsaws around major data.
A widely circulated FXLeaders note said silver was hovering near $63 in early European trade, attributing the pause to profit-taking ahead of key U.S. releases. [13]
That same analysis highlighted:
- A failure to hold above $64.50, followed by a pullback toward $63.00. [14]
- A nearby moving-average area around $62.50, with additional reference support around $60.90. [15]
- A “support zone” concept roughly $62.80–$61.80, with a deeper risk marker below $60.15. [16]
- Upside targets cited around $64.50, then $65.85, and $67.30 if momentum re-accelerates. [17]
These are not guarantees—just a snapshot of how short-term traders are mapping risk after a record run.
2026 silver forecast: bullish demand stories vs. “peak deficit” warnings
Today’s forward-looking commentary is notably more mixed than the 2025 performance chart might suggest.
Morgan Stanley: silver may lag gold in 2026
In a Dec. 16 note reported by Reuters, Morgan Stanley argued that silver is expected to underperform gold, with 2025 marking a peak deficit as solar installations are expected to decline in 2026. [18]
That call is important because solar has been one of the market’s most-cited structural demand pillars for silver. If solar deployment cools, it could take some pressure off the physical market—especially if mine supply and recycling respond (even slowly) to higher prices.
ANZ: bullish case for gold and silver remains intact into H1 2026
On the other side of the ledger, Investing.com reported ANZ analysts see the broader “real assets” bid continuing, saying the bullish case remains intact for gold and silver in the first half of 2026, citing easing monetary policy, fiscal concerns, geopolitical risk, and waning trust in U.S. assets. [19]
This view doesn’t require silver to rise in a straight line—only that macro conditions keep investor demand engaged while industrial usage remains resilient.
A wider forecast range: from “retest $50” to fresh highs
Reuters also quoted a more cautious scenario from one market executive: if 2025 ends strong for gold, silver could still face a meaningful pullback, with a potential retest of $50/oz next year mentioned alongside broader precious metals projections. [20]
The takeaway for readers: forecasts for 2026 are not clustered around a single number. They’re split between:
- Macro bulls (rate cuts, weaker dollar, safe-haven/investment demand), and
- Industrial-cycle skeptics (slower global growth or shifting clean-tech demand, especially solar).
Why silver’s long-term story still matters: industrial demand, deficits, and “critical mineral” status
Even on a down day, silver’s narrative is being reinforced by supply-and-demand data that predates today’s headlines.
Industrial demand has been hitting records
The Silver Institute reported that silver industrial demand rose 4% in 2024 to a record 680.5 million ounces, with gains tied to the “green economy” (including solar and electrification) and AI-linked electronics demand. [21]
Deficits have been persistent
The same Silver Institute release said global demand exceeded supply again, producing a structural deficit of 148.9 million ounces in 2024 and extending a multi-year deficit streak. [22]
The U.S. has formally elevated silver’s strategic relevance
The U.S. Department of the Interior’s final 2025 List of Critical Minerals added silver among the newly included minerals—an official recognition that supply disruptions could carry economic and national-security risks. [23]
That “critical mineral” framing doesn’t set prices directly, but it can influence:
- Permitting and investment priorities,
- Domestic supply chain policy,
- And the strategic premium investors sometimes place on metals tied to energy and defense technologies.
Watchlist for the rest of today and this week
If you’re following silver price today, the next moves are likely to be driven less by “silver-only” headlines and more by macro surprises:
- U.S. inflation readings (CPI, then PCE): can reset rate expectations quickly. [24]
- Dollar direction and Treasury yields: still the cleanest real-time macro signals for precious metals. [25]
- Central bank decisions (BoE, ECB, BoJ): FX volatility can spill into commodities. [26]
- Year-end positioning: after a historic run, silver can see sharp intraday swings as funds rebalance.
Bottom line
As of 2:15 PM EST on Dec. 16, 2025, silver remains in a high-volatility consolidation after printing new all-time highs last week. Spot prices around the mid-$63s reflect profit-taking and data-week caution, but the larger bull case—built on rate-cut expectations, a softer dollar, and structural industrial demand—has not disappeared. [27]
If you want, I can also write a shorter Google Discover-style version of this same story (350–450 words) using the same Dec. 16 sources and price points.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.fxstreet.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.fxleaders.com, 14. www.fxleaders.com, 15. www.fxleaders.com, 16. www.fxleaders.com, 17. www.fxleaders.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. za.investing.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. silverinstitute.org, 22. silverinstitute.org, 23. www.doi.gov, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com
