Sirius XM (SIRI) Stock News and Forecast for December 7, 2025: Price, Berkshire Stake, CFO Change and 2026

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) has quietly become one of the most hotly debated mid-cap stocks on Wall Street. As of the close on Friday, December 5, 2025, SIRI was trading a little above $22 per share, giving the satellite-radio and audio-streaming group a market capitalization of about $7.4 billion, down roughly 13% over the past year. ^[1]

At the same time, the company has raised its 2025 guidance, announced a new chief financial officer for 2026, continues to enjoy a massive ~37% stake from Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, and carries an annual dividend yield around 5%. ^[2]

Here’s a detailed look at the latest SIRI stock news, forecasts and analysis as of December 7, 2025.

1. SIRI stock today: cheap on cash flow, scarred on price

On the last trading day (Friday, Dec. 5), Sirius XM closed near $22.03, up just over 2% on the day after trading between roughly $21.4 and $22.3. ^[3]

Key snapshot metrics:

Share price: ~$22
Market cap: ~$7.41 billion
1‑year performance: about ‑13%
Dividend yield: roughly 4.9%–5.1% based on an annual dividend of $1.08 per share
Enterprise value: about $17.6 billion ^[4]

Despite the weak share price performance, the cash‑return profile is striking. Management’s 2025 guidance calls for ~$1.225 billion in free cash flow, which implies a mid‑teens free‑cash‑flow yield versus today’s ~$7.4 billion market value (about 16–17%, before any changes in the share price). ^[5]

That combination — depressed price, high cash yield, and a large dividend — is exactly why SIRI shows up in lists of “ultra‑high‑yield” and “Berkshire-backed bargain” stocks, even as the business itself faces structural headwinds. ^[6]

2. Q3 2025 results: profits rebound, revenue edges lower

The most recent full set of numbers came with Q3 2025 earnings, released on October 30, 2025. Sirius XM reported: ^[7]

Total revenue: $2.16 billion, down about 1% year over year
Net income: $297 million (vs. a large net loss in Q3 2024, which included a multi‑billion‑dollar goodwill impairment related to the Liberty Media transaction)
Diluted EPS: $0.84
Adjusted EBITDA: $676 million
Free cash flow (FCF): $257 million, almost triple the $93 million generated in the same quarter a year earlier

On the operating side:

The core SiriusXM segment generated about $1.6 billion in revenue, down ~1% year over year, with ARPU (average revenue per user) inching up to $15.19.
SiriusXM ended the quarter with roughly 33 million total subscribers, with self‑pay subscribers falling by about 40,000 in the quarter, even as churn improved slightly to around 1.6%. ^[8]
The Pandora and Off‑Platform segment produced $548 million in revenue, up about 1%, driven by an increase in podcast and tech‑fee advertising, partially offset by declining subscription revenue. ^[9]

Revenue is roughly flat to slightly negative, but margins and free cash flow are holding up thanks to cost controls and lower capex — a recurring theme in management commentary.

3. 2025 guidance: raised in October, reaffirmed after the CFO announcement

The single biggest piece of fundamental news for SIRI in late 2025 is the increase in full‑year 2025 guidance, announced with Q3 earnings and subsequently reaffirmed on November 18, 2025. ^[10]

Sirius XM raised its 2025 outlook by $25 million across the board, and now guides to:

Total revenue: ~$8.525 billion
Adjusted EBITDA: ~$2.625 billion
Free cash flow: ~$1.225 billion ^[11]

Management also highlighted:

A net‑debt‑to‑adjusted‑EBITDA ratio of 3.8x, with a long‑term leverage target in the low‑to‑mid‑3x range
$111 million returned to shareholders in Q3 alone via dividends and share repurchases

From a valuation perspective, that combination — modest revenue decline, stable EBITDA, heavy FCF and an ongoing capital‑return program — is the core of the bullish fundamental view on SIRI.

4. CFO transition: Zac Coughlin steps in, Tom Barry steps down

On November 18, 2025, Sirius XM filed an 8‑K and issued a press release announcing a significant leadership change:

Zac Coughlin has been appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective January 1, 2026.
Current CFO Tom Barry will step down as of December 31, 2025, then remain briefly in an advisory role to help with the transition. ^[12]

Coughlin brings nearly 30 years of finance experience, including:

CFO of PVH Corp. (Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger)
Group CFO/COO of DFS Group, a subsidiary of LVMH
CFO of Converse (Nike)
Early career roles at Ford Motor Company in international finance

In the announcement, CEO Jennifer Witz stressed Coughlin’s background in capital allocation, margin expansion and cash‑flow optimization, calling him the right leader for the next phase of Sirius XM’s transformation. ^[13]

A separate analysis from Simply Wall St framed the move as incrementally positive but not thesis‑changing, arguing the real narrative remains whether Sirius XM can stabilize subscribers and revenue while executing on its digital and in‑car initiatives, even as it reaffirmed the raised 2025 guidance. ^[14]

5. Berkshire Hathaway’s 37% stake: big endorsement, not a guarantee

SIRI’s profile in financial media has exploded in 2024–2025, largely because Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has become the company’s dominant shareholder.

Based on SEC filings and compiled portfolio trackers:

Berkshire now holds roughly 124.8 million SIRI shares, representing about 37% of Sirius XM’s outstanding shares. ^[15]
Additional purchases in 2025 were made around the low‑to‑mid‑$20s, following heavy buying during the stock’s steep slide after its separation from Liberty Media. ^[16]
Despite this large ownership stake, Sirius XM still accounts for only about 1% of Berkshire’s listed‑equity portfolio, meaning it’s a meaningful, but not make‑or‑break, position for the conglomerate. ^[17]

Buffett’s involvement is a key talking point in recent articles asking where SIRI stock might be in three years or whether the company could be a “parabolic” Buffett play in 2025. But even those bullish pieces emphasize that Berkshire’s backing is not a guarantee of strong returns — especially when the underlying business is facing secular pressure. ^[18]

6. Latest institutional flows: some funds buy, others trim

From the perspective of institutional money managers, the last few weeks have brought a mix of additions and reductions:

A recent MarketBeat report shows CW Advisors LLC boosted its SIRI holdings by about 96% in Q3 2025 to 74,514 shares, while other firms such as Maple Capital Management, Sumitomo Mitsui DS, and Stratos Wealth Partners also held or increased positions. ^[19]
Another MarketBeat piece published December 2, 2025 highlighted that Blueshift Asset Management cut its SIRI stake by 52.1%, selling around 78,000 shares and keeping roughly 71,776 shares (about $1.65 million at the time). ^[20]

Those filings also note that, within the data set tracked, institutional investors collectively hold around 10%+ of the stock, with analysts described as “mixed” and an average price target near $24.29 alongside a dividend yield slightly above 5%. ^[21]

In short: some active managers are buying the dip, others are taking profits or reducing exposure, reflecting the broader debate around SIRI’s risk–reward balance.

7. What Wall Street analysts are forecasting for SIRI

Consensus price targets

Analyst forecasts for SIRI diverge, but most cluster around the mid‑$20s:

StockAnalysis aggregates 9 analysts with a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average 12‑month price target of $25.22, implying roughly 14–15% upside from recent prices. Targets range from $18 on the low end to $30 on the high end. ^[22]
A separate tally referenced by MarketBeat and GuruFocus finds a larger group of 14 analysts with an average target around $23.8–$24.3 and an overall “Hold” consensus. Recent actions include:
- Rosenblatt: “Hold” rating, target $23
- Barrington Research: “Buy,” target $28
- JPMorgan: “Sell,” with a target increased from $19 to $20 in late October ^[23]

So depending on which data set you use, SIRI is either a cautious Buy or a Hold with mid‑teens upside — but in almost all cases, price targets sit above the current share price.

Earnings and revenue outlook

On the fundamentals side, consensus estimates point to:

Revenue of about $8.7 billion in 2025, essentially flat vs. 2024, and again flat into 2026, underscoring a no‑growth top line outside of pricing and mix.
EPS rebounding sharply from a GAAP loss in 2024 (driven by goodwill impairment) to around $2.83 in 2025, then rising to roughly $3.16 in 2026, an 11–12% year‑over‑year EPS increase. ^[24]

Meanwhile, Simply Wall St’s longer‑term model projects:

Revenue of about $8.6 billion and earnings of roughly $1.1 billion by 2028, which works out to approximately flat revenue and a substantial recovery in profitability versus the post‑impairment baseline
An estimated fair value of $24 per share, implying roughly 15% upside from today’s price, albeit with considerable execution risk. ^[25]

8. Algorithmic and technical forecasts: Intellectia’s “Strong Sell”

Contrasting Wall Street’s mid‑teens upside outlook, quantitative and technical models are more skeptical as of December 7, 2025.

An updated analysis from Intellectia AI labels SIRI a “Strong Sell” based on a blend of:

Technical signals: 4 bullish vs. 6 bearish indicators
Trend structure:
- Short‑term moving averages flash positive (price above 5‑day and 20‑day averages)
- But the 20‑day moving average sits below the 60‑day, and the 60‑day below the 200‑day, indicating a longer‑term downtrend
Short‑selling data: Short sale ratio around 17% of volume as of Dec. 5, with rising short activity alongside a recent price bounce ^[26]

Intellectia’s near‑term price projections:

1‑day forecast: ~$22.05
1‑week forecast: ~$20.41
1‑month forecast: ~$21.01

Longer‑dated projections:

2026 average price: around $22.64
2030 projection: roughly $19.6, implying little long‑term price appreciation in their base case ^[27]

In other words, the algorithm sees short‑term downside risk and only modest potential upside over the next few years, despite the stock’s seemingly low valuation.

9. Business headwinds: subscription pressure and streaming competition

Behind all of these numbers is a simple, uncomfortable reality: Sirius XM is fighting against powerful secular trends.

Recent analyses of SIRI’s performance emphasize a few recurring concerns:

Subscription‑driven model under pressure: Sirius XM still generates roughly three‑quarters of its revenue from subscriptions, but its self‑pay subscriber base has declined in most recent quarters, and both SiriusXM and Pandora have reported shrinking user metrics over the last year. ^[28]
Top‑line stagnation: Q1 and Q3 2025 both showed low‑single‑digit revenue declines, driven largely by fewer subscribers and softer advertising demand in music streaming, partially offset by price increases and growth in podcast and technology fees. ^[29]
Streaming alternatives: Analysts repeatedly point to the rise of Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube, and podcast platforms as more flexible and often cheaper alternatives to satellite radio, especially for younger listeners. This shows up in falling Pandora MAUs and modest erosion in SiriusXM’s self‑pay base. ^[30]

A widely circulated Motley Fool article from December 6, 2025 put it bluntly: while SIRI’s valuation and dividend are appealing, “it’s difficult to be bullish” on a business that appears to be on the wrong side of technological change, especially after the stock has fallen about 66% over the last three years. ^[31]

10. The bullish counterpoint: cash machine with a big dividend

Despite the structural worries, the bullish case for SIRI has its own clear pillars:

Cash flow and FCF yield
- 2025 guidance for $1.225 billion in free cash flow versus a $7.4 billion market cap implies a mid‑teens FCF yield, giving management ample room to pay dividends, repurchase shares, and pay down debt. ^[32]
Dividend income
- The stock pays $1.08 per share annually, for a yield around 4.9–5.1%, with the dividend raised multiple times in recent years and a payout ratio in the 30–40% range by most estimates. ^[33]
Operating leverage without growth
- Even with flattish revenue, Sirius XM can expand earnings and free cash flow via cost cuts, mix shifts toward high-margin digital advertising, and lower capital intensity. The strong Q3 FCF is partly the result of lower capex and the absence of one‑off Liberty transaction costs. ^[34]
Berkshire “signaling” effect
- Many income and value investors take comfort from Berkshire’s 37% stake, interpreting it as a sign that the stock may be mispriced relative to its cash flows, even if the business is not a growth story. ^[35]

Several recent pieces highlight SIRI as a high‑yield Buffett stock that could deliver attractive total returns if management can simply slow the rate of subscriber decline and execute on its digital strategy.

11. Putting the December 7, 2025 picture together

Taking all the latest news, forecasts and analysis together, the SIRI story as of December 7, 2025 looks like this:

Near‑term fundamentals:
- Slightly declining revenue, but strong and improving profitability and free cash flow
- Raised and reaffirmed 2025 guidance, with substantial cash being returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks ^[36]
Ownership and flows:
- Berkshire Hathaway owns about 37% of the company
- Active managers show mixed behavior, with some funds significantly increasing positions while others materially trim stakes ^[37]
Valuation vs. expectations:
- Wall Street analysts mostly see mid‑teens upside over the next 12 months, with price targets concentrated in the $23–$30 range and a mix of Buy, Hold and Sell ratings
- DCF‑style and forward‑looking models (e.g., Simply Wall St) assign a fair value around $24, assuming flat revenue but improving earnings by 2028
- Technical and quantitative models (e.g., Intellectia) are much more cautious, calling SIRI a “Strong Sell” in the short to medium term despite a modestly positive long‑term price path ^[38]

The core question for investors is whether Sirius XM is:

A mature, cash‑rich media utility that can keep paying and growing its dividend while slowly evolving its business model, or
A value trap, in which cash returns and buybacks are not enough to offset long‑term erosion in its subscriber base and competitive positioning.