New York, Feb 6, 2026, 10:46 a.m. EST — Regular session
- Sirius XM shares fell about 5% Friday, giving back some of the gains after jumping 9% the day before.
- The company laid out revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow targets for 2026.
- Shares pulled back after Seaport Global issued a downgrade, erasing gains from Thursday’s rally.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc shares slid 5.3% to $21.40 out of the gate on Friday, pulling back after Thursday’s rally.
Shares pulled back after surging 9% in the prior session, finishing at $22.60. Satellite radio player Sirius XM defied the broader market’s slump, and trading volume soared—several multiples above what’s typical.
SiriusXM has finally delivered its first full-year forecast after calling its 2026 prospects “stable.” Management’s message: rein in spending, watch cash flow. Subscriber trends haven’t found their footing. Sirius XM Holdings Inc.
SiriusXM is guiding for about $8.5 billion in revenue in 2026, aiming for adjusted EBITDA around $2.6 billion and free cash flow after capex close to $1.35 billion. Looking at 2025, revenue landed at $8.56 billion, with net income of $805 million. Free cash flow surged 24% from the prior year to $1.26 billion. CEO Jennifer Witz called the results “overdelivered,” while CFO Zac Coughlin pointed to a free cash flow goal of $1.5 billion for 2027. Sirius XM Holdings Inc.
SiriusXM closed out 2025 with a subscriber base of around 33 million. Fourth-quarter self-pay net additions came in at about 110,000, thanks in part to fresh product rollouts, but self-pay subs still fell by 301,000 for the year. For 2025, the company logged a self-pay monthly churn rate of 1.5%. Full-year ARPU slipped to $15.11.
Programming was the headline act during the pitch. SiriusXM unveiled a new three-year contract with Howard Stern, and the company is looking for podcasting to surge 41% next year after notching 12% growth this year.
Seaport Global Securities cut its rating on the stock to “Neutral” from “Buy” on Friday, pointing to estimate cuts after the company’s 2026 outlook. The firm sees self-pay subscriber losses running “moderately worse” than the numbers expected in 2025. David Joyce, analyst at Seaport, called revenue and EBITDA guidance “stable,” but cautioned that ARPU growth could face pressure, with discounts and promotions potentially offsetting planned price increases. Investing.com
SiriusXM grabbed buyers Thursday on the back of solid cash flow, but lingering worries about its subscriber base and pricing continue to weigh on the stock.
Promotions running longer than planned or a dip in auto-related conversion stand out as key risks here. Either issue could drive up churn and make the 2027 free-cash-flow goal tougher to reach—particularly with the ad market still looking shaky.
The company’s quarterly dividend lands Feb. 27, with eligibility locked in for shareholders of record by Feb. 11—a cutoff that typically nudges some traders to adjust their moves beforehand.
