The iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA: SLV) is at the center of one of 2025’s wildest stories in global markets: a historic silver squeeze driven by structural supply deficits, green-energy demand and expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts.
As of the latest close on December 5, 2025, SLV finished at $52.95, up about 2.3% on the day, with a 52‑week range of roughly $26–$54 and assets of about $29–30 billion backed by more than half a billion ounces of physical silver. [1]
At the same time, spot silver itself has surged to all‑time highs in December, with recent trades around $58–59 per ounce and data providers reporting a record high above $61.40 earlier this month. [2]
Below is a deep dive into what’s happening with SLV stock right now, how it’s linked to the broader silver super‑rally, and what the latest forecasts and analyses are saying as of December 7, 2025.
What SLV Stock Actually Is – and Why It Matters in This Rally
SLV is not a mining stock. It’s a physically backed grantor trust created by BlackRock’s iShares unit to mirror the price of silver bullion, before fees. Each share represents a fractional interest in a pool of silver bars stored in vaults in London and New York. [3]
Key structural points:
- Objective: Track the day‑to‑day price of silver bullion, minus expenses. [4]
- Fee: Sponsor fee of 0.50% per year. [5]
- Size and holdings: As of late November, SLV managed around $27–30 billion and held roughly 502 million ounces of silver – about 60% of one year’s global mine production, according to MarketBeat’s recent analysis. [6]
- Trading profile: SLV trades on NYSE Arca and routinely turns over tens of millions of shares per day; volume on December 5 was over 43 million. [7]
For investors and institutions that don’t want to deal with futures or vaulting bars, SLV has effectively become the main gateway into physical silver exposure. That’s why, when silver spikes, SLV usually sits at the center of the story.
SLV Stock Performance in 2025: Almost a Double
2025 has turned into a banner year for silver – and by extension, for SLV stock.
- BlackRock reports that SLV’s NAV total return is up about 98% year‑to‑date as of December 4, 2025. [8]
- StockAnalysis calculates a one‑year total return of roughly 86% for SLV, with the ETF now trading near the top of its 52‑week range. [9]
- Zacks/TradingView recently noted that SLV has gained around 97% in 2025 as of December 2, far outpacing major gold ETFs. [10]
In other words, SLV has essentially doubled in a single calendar year, in line with the underlying metal. Several news outlets note that silver prices in 2025 have risen about 95–100%, compared with roughly 60% gains in gold over the same period. [11]
That performance has attracted:
- Massive inflows: A Kitco commentary estimates that silver exchange‑traded products saw 95 million ounces of net inflows in the first half of 2025, taking global ETP holdings to about 1.13 billion ounces, with SLV alone seeing over $1 billion in net inflows over the past year. [12]
- Heavy usage of SLV as the vehicle of choice: MarketBeat emphasizes SLV as the primary vehicle for equity investors to access the silver rally, noting that it closed “around $51” at the end of November and has closely tracked spot silver’s ascent. [13]
Despite this, analyst coverage aggregated by MarketBeat indicates that SLV still holds a “Hold”‑type rating overall, as some strategists worry about how far and how fast the metal has run. [14]
The Macro Backdrop: Why Silver (and SLV) Exploded in 2025
The SLV story cannot be separated from the macro picture for silver.
Record prices and a historic deficit
Multiple data providers now show silver trading near record territory:
- FXEmpire’s December 7, 2025 note reports that spot silver (XAGUSD) hit an intraday record around $59.34 on Friday before closing at $58.36, up just over 2% on the day. [15]
- TradingEconomics records an all‑time high of about $61.44 per ounce in December 2025, with silver data last updated on December 7. [16]
This price action is backed by a multi‑year physical squeeze:
- The Silver Institute projects that 2026 will mark the fifth consecutive year of a structural supply deficit, with a roughly 95‑million‑ounce shortfall expected next year and a cumulative deficit of about 820 million ounces since 2021 – roughly an entire year of mine output. [17]
- Industrial demand is the big driver. EBC Financial Group and others highlight that solar photovoltaic (PV) alone now consumes about 15% of annual silver supply, with next‑generation solar cells (TOPCon/HJT) using 50–120% more silver per watt than older PERC designs. [18]
Add to that other structural pillars — EVs, electronics, 5G, medical equipment — and you get a metal that is simultaneously a green‑energy input and a monetary asset.
Fed policy, weaker dollar and “critical mineral” status
On the macro side, silver is getting a tailwind from central banks and politicians:
- The latest FXEmpire forecast notes that December’s core PCE inflation print remains consistent with another Fed rate cut, and that markets are leaning heavily toward further easing. Silver has rallied as traders price lower real yields and a weaker dollar. [19]
- The U.S. government has formally added silver to its 2025 List of Critical Minerals, reflecting its strategic role in clean energy and advanced electronics. MarketBeat reports that this designation has prompted roughly 75 million ounces to flow into U.S. vaults since October, contributing to a geographic bottleneck in supply. [20]
The upshot is that:
- Silver is being re‑rated higher as both a strategic industrial metal and a macro hedge.
- SLV, as the largest silver vehicle, ends up both reflecting and amplifying that re‑rating.
Inside SLV: Flows, Short Interest and Investor Sentiment
Recent coverage paints a nuanced picture of who is actually buying – and fighting – SLV.
Big inflows, big short interest
- Kitco’s “silver disconnection” piece notes that silver ETP holdings have ballooned, with SLV taking in over $1 billion in fresh capital over the past year. [21]
- MarketBeat puts SLV’s assets under management near $29–30 billion and estimates short interest of about 9.6% of the float, a relatively high figure for a commodity vehicle. [22]
High short interest combined with strong inflows is rocket fuel in both directions: when prices rise, shorts may be forced to cover; when momentum cracks, the same leverage can accelerate the downside.
Retail skepticism despite huge gains
Interestingly, not all investors are celebrating:
- A December 1 report from 24/7 Wall St. describes how SLV rallied from about $30 in late May to $51.27 by November 28 — a roughly 70% gain — yet Reddit sentiment turned sharply bearish, with users focusing on protective puts rather than victory laps. [23]
That mix – giant gains, high short interest, and skeptical retail chatter – is classic late‑stage bull‑market behavior. It doesn’t guarantee an imminent top, but it does underline how crowded and emotionally charged the trade has become.
What Technical and Quant Models Are Saying About SLV
Beyond macro narratives, several quantitative services have published short‑term and 12‑month views on SLV stock.
Overbought but trending up
StockScan’s latest technical dashboard (early December) shows: [24]
- Price: Around $53 per share.
- Oscillators: Mixed, with RSI(14) at about 70 (overbought) and several stochastic indicators also flashing overbought.
- Moving averages: 10‑, 20‑, 50‑, 100‑ and 200‑day simple and exponential MAs all point to “Buy”, reflecting a strong uptrend.
- Summary: “Neutral” from oscillators alone, but “Buy” when incorporating moving averages, leading their model to describe SLV as a “Strong Buy” in a bullish trend, while warning about potential corrections due to overbought readings.
Tickeron’s AI‑driven analysis also flags that SLV recently broke above its upper Bollinger Band and that both RSI and stochastic oscillators have spent time in overbought territory, implying an increased risk of a pullback even within an overall uptrend. [25]
EBC’s silver ETF report similarly notes that SLV is trading near the top of its 52‑week range (~$26–53), with a neutral 14‑day RSI around the high‑40s, price above both the 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, and a MACD in “buy” mode – a classic bullish but no longer “extreme” setup. [26]
12‑month price targets: a wide spread
Not all models see more upside from here:
- StockScan’s 12‑month SLV target sits around $37.27, implying roughly 30% downside from current levels, based on a mixture of historical volatility and reversion‑to‑mean logic. [27]
That’s just one forecasting framework – and not a consensus Wall Street target – but it underscores how far price has run versus long‑term averages.
Silver Price Forecasts to 2026 – and What They Mean for SLV
Because SLV is effectively a price‑of‑silver machine, silver forecasts double as SLV scenario analysis.
Base‑case: High, volatile plateau
The Ouro Foundation’s December silver futures forecast puts the latest observation at $57.54/oz on December 1, 2025 and projects: [28]
- A move into the low $60s in Q1 2026,
- Sideways‑to‑slightly‑up trading in the low‑mid $60s through mid‑year,
- A peak around $67 in late 2026, followed by a gentle pullback to about $65.66 by year‑end.
That path implies roughly 14% upside for silver between December 2025 and December 2026, and describes a market that has repriced to a higher regime and now oscillates in a high range rather than mean‑reverting back toward old levels.
If that base‑case plays out, SLV would be expected – before fees and tracking noise – to deliver high‑single‑digit to low‑teens returns over 12–18 months, with a lot of chop along the way.
Moderately bullish: mid‑$50s to $60s
Several other research pieces cluster around a similar story:
- EBC Financial Group notes that many analysts see silver averaging in the mid‑$50s in 2026, with upside scenarios toward the $65–95/oz area if deficits persist and monetary policy stays supportive. [29]
- A MarketMinute/WRAL analysis collating institutional forecasts cites projections of $65 per ounce in 2026 from Bank of America, with some houses modeling $70 by late 2025 and $90 by late 2026 in more aggressive cases. [30]
These views effectively say: the vertical part of the move may be behind us, but sustained high prices and moderate further upside are plausible if physical tightness continues.
Aggressive bull scenarios
The same MarketMinute piece catalogues more extreme long‑term scenarios that envision silver reaching $80–$120 within one to two years, and even triple‑digit prices ($100–$130 or more) further out under “supercycle” conditions (continued deficits, aggressive easing, and strong green‑energy policy support globally). [31]
Those are high‑conviction but high‑uncertainty paths – the kind of forecasts that depend on everything breaking the bulls’ way.
Cautious and bearish cases
Not everyone believes the current price zone is sustainable:
- A Kitco summary of TD Securities’ outlook (via StockAnalysis’ news feed) highlights a scenario where gold rises toward $4,400 while silver retreats to the “mid‑$40s” by 2026, implying that some strategists expect a partial give‑back of this year’s explosive gains as industrial demand normalizes and speculative froth comes off. [32]
- Quant‑type models like StockScan’s 12‑month target in the high‑30s also implicitly assume some mean reversion after a nearly 100% annual gain. [33]
On top of that, Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone, via Kitco, frames silver’s next big move as a fork between roughly $75 on the upside or $40 on the downside, underscoring the metal’s notorious volatility at inflection points. [34]
For SLV holders, the common thread across all these views is uncertainty, not inevitability. The ETF will follow wherever silver ultimately lands.
Fresh Catalyst: December 7, 2025 Macro Update
On December 7, 2025, the newest data and commentary still lean short‑term bullish for silver – and therefore for SLV:
- FXEmpire’s latest silver (XAGUSD) forecast describes the rally as accelerating on hopes of further Fed cuts, softer core PCE inflation and weakening labor data, with silver closing at record levels and traders broadly treating dips as buying opportunities ahead of the next Fed meeting. [35]
- At the same time, multiple Kitco and MarketWatch reports note that silver is near or at record highs even as gold “only” grinds higher, confirming the theme that silver is leading the precious‑metals complex in this cycle. [36]
Against that macro backdrop, SLV’s latest close just below $53 keeps it tightly coupled to spot silver in the high‑50s, with a small discount reflecting the fund’s fee and intraday trading noise. [37]
Key Risks for SLV Stock From Here
For all the excitement, SLV is not a free lunch. The main risks flagged in recent research and commentary include:
- Extreme volatility:
- Policy surprises:
- A more hawkish‑than‑expected Fed message at upcoming meetings could strengthen the U.S. dollar, lift real yields and pressure silver and SLV, at least in the near term. [40]
- Industrial demand shocks:
- A sharp slowdown in solar or EV installations, or successful “thrifting” that meaningfully reduces silver loadings per panel or per vehicle, could take some air out of the structural‑deficit narrative. Recent research stresses, however, that new solar technologies are currently increasing – not decreasing – silver usage per watt. [41]
- Regulatory and trade risk:
- The U.S. “critical mineral” designation is a double‑edged sword: it supports strategic stockpiling, but it also opens the door to Section 232 tariff investigations that could disrupt global flows and change regional price dynamics. [42]
- Crowded positioning:
- Large ETF inflows, hefty short interest and intense retail attention make SLV vulnerable to air pockets where liquidity briefly evaporates and price moves overshoot in both directions. [43]
Anyone considering SLV needs to treat it as a high‑volatility commodity play, not a sleepy bond substitute.
Bottom Line: SLV at the Heart of a Structural Silver Re‑Rating
As of December 7, 2025, SLV stock sits near record highs, mirroring a silver market that has:
- Doubled in price this year,
- Entered its fifth straight year of structural deficits, and
- Gained new strategic importance thanks to green energy, electronics and “critical mineral” policy shifts. [44]
The base‑case from many forecasters is a high, volatile plateau with modest further upside into 2026. More aggressive scenarios imagine a march toward $70–90 silver and substantially higher SLV prices, while cautious houses see scope for a pullback into the mid‑$40s or even lower as the cycle matures. [45]
For now, the latest macro data and technicals still point to bullish momentum but elevated risk. SLV has become a pure expression of that tension: a liquid, physically backed vehicle tied directly to one of the most volatile and hotly debated assets in global markets.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.fxempire.com, 3. www.ishares.com, 4. www.ishares.com, 5. www.blackrock.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. www.blackrock.com, 9. stockanalysis.com, 10. www.tradingview.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.kitco.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.fxempire.com, 16. tradingeconomics.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.ebc.com, 19. www.fxempire.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.kitco.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. 247wallst.com, 24. stockscan.io, 25. tickeron.com, 26. www.ebc.com, 27. stockscan.io, 28. ouro.foundation, 29. www.ebc.com, 30. markets.financialcontent.com, 31. markets.financialcontent.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. stockscan.io, 34. www.kitco.com, 35. www.fxempire.com, 36. stockanalysis.com, 37. stockanalysis.com, 38. www.kitco.com, 39. www.lazyportfolioetf.com, 40. www.fxempire.com, 41. www.marketbeat.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com, 43. www.kitco.com, 44. www.marketbeat.com, 45. ouro.foundation
