Snap Inc (SNAP) Stock Outlook – December 2025: Russia Ban, AI Deals and AR Bets Put the Spotlight Back on Snapchat

Updated: December 6, 2025

Key Takeaways for SNAP Stock

Share price: Snap Inc (NYSE: SNAP) closed around $7.91 on Friday, December 5, 2025, marking its third straight day of gains and a 1.9% daily rise, while still trading roughly 40% below its 52‑week high of $13.28 set on January 10. ^[1]
Massive drawdown: Despite the recent bounce, SNAP remains about 91% below its 2021 all‑time high, and is trading at a price‑to‑sales ratio near 2.2, close to the cheapest level since its 2017 IPO. ^[2]
Q3 2025 fundamentals: Revenue grew 10% year‑over‑year to $1.507 billion, Daily Active Users (DAUs) hit 477 million (+8%), Monthly Active Users (MAUs) reached 943 million (+7%), and free cash flow was $93 million, pointing to improving unit economics even as the company remains unprofitable. ^[3]
Big product bets: New AI‑powered ad tools, expanding Sponsored Snaps, a growing Snapchat+ subscription, and a 2026 launch of lightweight AR Specs are central to Snap’s long‑term growth story. ^[4]
Fresh headlines since early December 2025: Russia has banned Snapchat nationwide, Australia’s new 16+ age law will force Snap to lock under‑age accounts, Snap signed a $400 million AI partnership with Perplexity, and new AR commerce initiatives like the Snapchat Winter Village are rolling out globally. ^[5]
Analyst view: Across major data providers, SNAP carries a consensus “Hold” rating, with average 12‑month price targets clustered around $9.5–$10.5, implying roughly 20–30% upside from current levels – but with targets ranging from about $6.5 to $16, reflecting highly mixed conviction. ^[6]

Below is a detailed look at what investors need to know about Snap Inc stock as of December 6, 2025.

1. Snap Stock Today: Price, Momentum and Valuation

Snap shares have quietly put together a mini‑rally. On Friday, December 5, 2025, SNAP rose about 1.93% to close at $7.91, outperforming several mega‑cap tech peers on the day. Microsoft gained roughly 0.48%, Alphabet Class A rose about 1.15%, while Apple slipped around 0.68%. Major U.S. indices, including the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, also closed modestly higher. ^[7]

Despite the positive session, SNAP is still roughly 40% below its 52‑week high of $13.28, set on January 10, 2025, underscoring how bruised the stock remains after years of volatility. Trading volume on December 5—around 33.5 million shares—was significantly below the 50‑day average of about 74.8 million, suggesting the latest move is not yet driven by heavy institutional momentum. ^[8]

Zooming out, a recent analysis published on Nasdaq notes that Snap stock remains about 91% below its 2021 record high, even though revenue has continued to grow. The article highlights that the company’s price‑to‑sales (P/S) ratio has compressed to roughly 2.2, near the lowest levels since Snap went public in 2017, which some commentators describe as “rock‑bottom” valuation territory given Snap’s scale. ^[9]

For investors, that mix—short‑term upside, long‑term drawdown, and compressed multiples—frames SNAP as a classic high‑beta turnaround play: potentially attractive if the business inflection is real, but clearly not a “sleep‑well‑at‑night” stock.

2. Q3 2025 Earnings: Growth Is Back, but Profitability Still Lags

Top‑line and user growth

Snap’s Q3 2025 financial results, released on November 5, are the backbone of most recent analysis on the stock. ^[10] Key highlights:

Revenue:$1.507 billion, up 10% year‑over‑year. ^[11]
Daily Active Users (DAUs):477 million, up 8% year‑over‑year.
Monthly Active Users (MAUs):943 million, up 7% year‑over‑year. ^[12]
Operating cash flow:$146 million, vs. $116 million a year earlier.
Free cash flow:$93 million, up around 30% year‑over‑year. ^[13]

Zacks’ recap of the quarter notes that Snap reported a GAAP net loss of $0.06 per share, an improvement from a $0.09 loss per share in the same period last year, with adjusted EBITDA of $182 million, representing a 12% margin and roughly 38% year‑over‑year growth in that metric. ^[14]

Regionally, the revenue mix remains diversified but uneven:

North America: ~$898 million, +5% YoY (about 60% of total revenue)
Europe: ~$298 million, +20% YoY
Rest of World: ~$311 million, +17% YoY ^[15]

Average revenue per user (ARPU) ticked up 2% year‑over‑year to $3.16, with ARPU growth strongest in Europe (+19%) and North America (+8%). ^[16]

Subscription and engagement tailwinds

One of the most encouraging data points for the long‑term thesis is Snap’s subscription business:

“Other revenues,” dominated by Snapchat+, rose 54% year‑over‑year to about $190 million in Q3.
Snapchat+ approached 17 million subscribers, up roughly 35% year‑over‑year.
Management and analysts estimate an annualized revenue run‑rate above $750 million for Snapchat+. ^[17]

Zacks also points out that global time spent watching content and the number of content viewers both increased year‑over‑year, fueled by investments in machine learning and the growth of short‑form Spotlight content. ^[18]

Q4 2025 outlook

Looking ahead, Snap guided for:

Q4 revenue in the $1.68–$1.71 billion range, implying 8–10% year‑over‑year growth, and
Adjusted EBITDA of $280–$310 million, reflecting further margin expansion and tight cost control. ^[19]

However, management also expects DAUs to decline in Q4, a rare step backward for a platform usually judged on relentless user growth. Zacks attributes this partly to platform changes and broader macro/regulatory pressures and still assigns Snap a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), citing sharply upward revisions to earnings estimates over the past month. ^[20]

Taken together, Q3 results and guidance paint a picture of a company with solid user growth and improving monetization, but still walking a tightrope between heavy investment in AI/AR and the need to show sustainable profit.

3. Product and Technology Momentum: AI Ads, AR Platform, and 2026 Specs

AI‑driven ad tools and Sponsored Snaps

A large share of recent bullish commentary on SNAP revolves around its revamped advertising stack.

At the 2025 NewFronts and in subsequent updates, Snap unveiled a suite of AI‑powered ad solutions:

Sponsored Snaps in Chat (inbox ads), including “First Snap” takeover placements, Web and App auction formats, and Sponsored Snaps from creators. ^[21]
Smart Campaign Solutions, featuring Smart Bidding, Smart Budget, and Smart Targeting tools that use machine learning to optimize conversions and cost‑per‑action. ^[22]

Zacks’ breakdown of Q3 shows that these tools are already moving the needle:

Direct response advertising revenue grew 8% YoY, helped by better purchase optimization and SMB demand.
Purchase‑related ad revenue climbed more than 30% YoY, aided by improvements in Dynamic Product Ads and large‑language‑model‑driven attribution.
Ads using Sponsored Snaps delivered up to 22% higher conversions and 19% lower cost per action, while Snap’s App Power Pack generated over 25% lifts in iOS app installs. ^[23]

The Motley Fool’s recent deep‑dive echoes this, arguing that Sponsored Snaps and the AI‑driven Smart Campaign suite could be key to rebuilding Snap’s reputation as an effective performance advertising platform, after Apple’s privacy changes hit social ad targeting in 2021. ^[24]

AR creation, Lens Fest and Snap Cloud

On the AR front, Snap continues to lean into its identity as a camera‑first, AR‑heavy platform:

At Lens Fest 2025, Snapchat announced new generative AI tools in Lens Studio, including:
- Realistic StyleGen, to create more true‑to‑life clothing and texture effects.
- Upgraded FaceGen for more realistic expression.
- New 3D generation for selfies and “AI Clips” to turn images into video Lenses. ^[25]
A conversational assistant, Lens Studio AI, lets creators build AR projects simply by describing what they want, with the AI writing code, generating assets, and suggesting fixes—lowering the barrier to entry for AR development. ^[26]

Snap also introduced Snap Cloud, built in partnership with Supabase, giving AR developers access to hosted APIs, secure storage, edge functions, and real‑time capabilities to power heavier, more dynamic AR experiences. ^[27]

According to Snap’s own Q3 highlights, the platform now counts roughly 943 million MAUs, with DAUs at 477 million, and its AR ecosystem includes hundreds of thousands of creators and millions of Lenses viewed trillions of times annually—reinforcing the company’s pitch as a full AR technology stack, not just a chat app. ^[28]

2026 Specs: AR glasses as a wearable computer

Looking beyond 2025, Snap is building a hardware pillar around AR glasses:

In June 2025, Snap announced that it will publicly launch “Specs” in 2026, described as a lightweight, immersive wearable computer built into glasses with see‑through Lenses for digital overlays. ^[29]
Specs are pitched as being able to understand the world through advanced machine learning, bring AI assistance into 3D space, support shared games and experiences with friends, and act as a flexible workstation for browsing and streaming. ^[30]

If Specs find real consumer traction, they could become a second major platform for Snap, complementing the smartphone camera and further cementing its role in consumer AR. Of course, that’s a big “if”: hardware is capital‑intensive and notoriously hit‑or‑miss, but investors are watching closely.

4. Latest Strategic Moves: Perplexity Deal and AR Commerce

$400M AI partnership with Perplexity

A December 4, 2025 article from Insider Monkey highlights one of Snap’s most eye‑catching deals this year: a strategic partnership with Perplexity, the AI‑powered answer engine. ^[31]

Key points from that coverage:

Perplexity will integrate its AI into Snapchat, letting a community of over one billion monthly active users ask questions and explore topics directly inside the app.
Starting in 2026, Perplexity is expected to appear prominently in Snapchat’s interface.
As part of the deal, Perplexity is slated to pay Snap $400 million over one year, providing a sizable, largely incremental revenue stream. ^[32]

The partnership fits Snap’s broader goal, articulated by CEO Evan Spiegel, to make AI “more personal, social, and fun”—deeply embedded in chats, Snaps and everyday interactions rather than existing as a standalone chatbot. ^[33]

AR commerce: Snapchat Winter Village

On December 1, Snap launched the Snapchat Winter Village, a high‑profile AR shopping activation running through December 31. ^[34]

Highlights:

It brings together luxury brands Chopard, BOSS, and Lancôme inside a single immersive AR “village” where users can step into virtual boutiques.
The experience is available in markets including France, the U.S., the U.K., Germany, the Nordics, Benelux and the Middle East.
Users discover products through dedicated AR Lenses and can tap out to complete purchases on each brand’s e‑commerce site. ^[35]

While it’s still early to quantify the commercial impact, initiatives like Winter Village demonstrate how Snap is leveraging its AR platform to monetize via branded experiences and commerce, not just traditional ads.

5. Regulatory and Legal Headwinds: Russia, Australia and a Class Action

Russia bans Snapchat

In early December 2025, Russian authorities formally blocked Snapchat nationwide, alongside restrictions on Apple’s FaceTime, as part of an ongoing crackdown on Western communication apps. ^[36]

Key details from Reuters, AP and other coverage:

Regulator Roskomnadzor accused Snapchat of being used to “organize and carry out terrorist acts” and facilitate fraud and other crimes, and said the ban decision was actually made in October but is only now being publicly enforced. ^[37]
Reports suggest Snap could lose around 8 million users in Russia, based on Social Media Today commentary and companion analyses—non‑trivial in absolute terms but modest compared with its nearly 1 billion monthly active users globally. ^[38]

The direct revenue impact is likely limited, but the ban is symbolically important. It underscores how geopolitical and regulatory risk can abruptly remove chunks of Snap’s user base, and it adds to the perception that Snap operates in a highly politicized environment.

Australia’s 16+ social media law

Another short‑term drag on user numbers will come from Australia’s new “Social Media Minimum Age” law, which the government classifies Snapchat as an age‑restricted platform under. ^[39]

In a November 22 newsroom post, Snap said that:

From December 10, 2025, it will lock accounts of users in Australia under 16, in order to comply with the new legislation.
Under‑16 users will have three years to download their data; accounts can be reinstated if the user turns 16 and verifies their age during that period. ^[40]

Marketing‑industry commentary estimates this could cost Snap hundreds of thousands of Australian teen users, at least temporarily, and underscores growing global pressure on platforms regarding youth safety. ^[41]

Class action over ad revenue disclosures

Separately, a class action lawsuit filed by The Gross Law Firm in September 2025 alleges that Snap misled investors about its advertising revenue growth trajectory earlier in the year. ^[42]

According to the complaint:

Snap allegedly offered overly upbeat commentary while concealing that ad revenue growth had slowed from 9% in Q1 2025 to about 1% in April, partly due to internal ad platform issues.
When Snap disclosed a deceleration in ad revenue growth in its Q2 results published on August 5, 2025, the stock fell from $9.39 to $7.78 in a single day—roughly a 17% drop. ^[43]

The case is still in early stages, but it adds to a broader theme: investor skepticism about management’s communication and execution around the ad platform.

6. Market Sentiment and Analyst Forecasts for SNAP

Despite improving fundamentals and high‑profile partnerships, Wall Street remains cautious.

Consensus ratings and price targets

Recent data from multiple aggregators shows a strikingly similar picture:

MarketBeat:
- 31 analysts; consensus rating “Hold”.
- 3 Sell, 25 Hold, 3 Buy.
- Average 12‑month price target: $9.85, with a $7–$13 range, implying roughly 25% upside from around $7.90. ^[44]
StockAnalysis:
- 25 analysts; consensus “Hold”.
- Average target: $10.40, range $6.50–$16.00, implying around 31% upside at current prices. ^[45]
Public.com:
- 24 analysts; consensus “Hold”, with the vast majority recommending “hold” rather than buy or sell.
- Average target: about $9.88, also consistent with mid‑single‑digit dollar upside from recent levels. ^[46]
Insider Monkey / Yahoo Finance recap:
- Notes 28 analysts covering Snap, with 1 Buy, 25 Hold, 2 Sell and an average price target of $9.50 (range $7–$13, ~25% upside from a recent close of $7.59). ^[47]
Quiver Quantitative:
- Based on 16 recent targets, reports a median price target of $9, with notable dispersion (including a $6.50 Sell‑side target from Stifel and a $12 target from BMO Capital). ^[48]

TipRanks data summarized by Capital.com earlier in October similarly pointed to an average target around $9.30, with a $7–$16 range, reinforcing the view that the street sees modest upside but substantial uncertainty. ^[49]

In short: analysts broadly agree Snap is neither a screaming buy nor an obvious sell at current levels. Expectations are clustered around “Hold” with 20–30% upside, but the wide spread between bull and bear targets underscores how differently investors value Snap’s AR and AI optionality.

Zacks: cautious optimism

Zacks takes a slightly more optimistic tack:

Assigns Snap a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), citing a strong “Growth” score (A), weaker “Value” and “Momentum” scores, and material upward revisions to earnings estimates over the past month (consensus shifting nearly 47%). ^[50]

Still, even Zacks emphasizes that Snap trades in the bottom tiers on value metrics, so the bull case hinges on continued revenue acceleration and margin expansion, not on current fundamentals alone.

Insider selling and institutional flows

QuiverQuant’s breakdown of insider activity may also temper enthusiasm:

In the last six months, Snap insiders have executed 30 open‑market sales and zero purchases, including sizable sales by CEO Evan Spiegel (~4.1 million shares) and co‑founder/CTO Robert Murphy (1 million shares). ^[51]
Institutional flows are mixed: some large holders, such as SRS Investment Management, FMR, and Goldman Sachs, cut their positions significantly in Q2 2025, while others like Contour Asset Management and Two Sigma added aggressively. ^[52]

That pattern—heavy insider selling and churn among hedge funds—reinforces the idea that the market remains divided about whether Snap is in the early stages of a durable turnaround or just another value trap in social media.

7. Bull vs. Bear Case for SNAP in Late 2025

The bull case

Recent bullish research and commentary (Motley Fool, Simply Wall St, Zacks and others) tend to emphasize: ^[53]

Scale and engagement: Nearly 1 billion monthly active users and 8 billion AR Lens uses per day (per Snap’s broader AR disclosures) give Snap enormous reach for advertisers and partners. ^[54]
Improving ad economics: Sponsored Snaps and AI‑driven campaign tools are delivering double‑digit conversion lifts and lower CPAs, which could help re‑accelerate ad revenue growth into 2026. ^[55]
Subscriptions and high‑margin revenue: Snapchat+ and new tiers like Lens+ are growing quickly and could provide more predictable, higher‑margin revenue than pure ads. ^[56]
AR and hardware moat: Snap’s full AR stack (Lens Studio, Camera Kit, Snap Cloud, Specs) and large creator ecosystem could be a durable competitive advantage as AR becomes more mainstream. ^[57]
AI monetization: The Perplexity partnership and Snap’s own AI experiments potentially open new revenue streams and deepen user engagement without relying solely on traditional ads. ^[58]
Valuation reset: With the stock down ~91% from its peak and trading at a P/S around 2.2, bulls argue that much of the bad news is already priced in, leaving room for multiple expansion if growth accelerates. ^[59]

Simply Wall St’s narrative modeling, for example, projects Snap reaching around $7.5 billion in revenue and over $800 million in earnings by 2028, leading to an internal fair‑value estimate near $9.84 per share, implying ~24% upside from current prices. ^[60]

The bear case

Meanwhile, bears and skeptics point to several unresolved issues: ^[61]

Persistent losses and heavy stock‑based compensation: Snap remains GAAP unprofitable, with substantial stock‑based comp and ongoing infrastructure spending on AI and AR.
Ad‑market vulnerability: The class action and earlier Q2 2025 slowdown highlight how fragile Snap’s ad growth can be, especially when execution missteps or platform changes occur. ^[62]
Regulatory and political risk: Russia’s ban, potential fallout from Australia’s youth‑safety rules, and broader lawsuits over social media and mental health all create a noisy regulatory backdrop that could impact user growth or branding. ^[63]
Fierce competition: Meta, Alphabet, TikTok and emerging players continue to compete aggressively for advertiser budgets, especially in short‑form video and social commerce—areas where Snap can’t afford missteps. ^[64]
Insider selling: The lack of insider buying and steady selling by top executives may worry investors looking for stronger internal conviction. ^[65]

Analyst dispersion—price targets stretching from the mid‑$6 range to as high as $16—demonstrates that there is no consensus on whether Snap’s AR and AI investments will justify its risk profile. ^[66]

8. What to Watch Next

For investors monitoring SNAP after December 6, 2025, the key catalysts and risk markers include:

Q4 2025 results and DAU trend:
- Whether Snap can deliver on its 8–10% revenue growth guidance and how steep the expected DAU decline actually is. ^[67]
Ad growth and ROI metrics:
- Continued data on conversion lifts from Sponsored Snaps, Smart Targeting and Smart Budget, and whether advertisers increase budgets accordingly. ^[68]
Impact of Russia and Australia:
- Updated user metrics reflecting the Russian ban and Australian age lockouts, and any signals that similar policies may be spreading to other markets. ^[69]
Execution of the Perplexity deal:
- How the $400 million AI partnership is recognized financially and how prominently Perplexity features in the app experience. ^[70]
Specs and AR roadmap in 2026:
- Early reviews, developer interest, and any pre‑launch details that signal whether Specs could become a mainstream AR device or remain a niche experiment. ^[71]
Regulatory developments and lawsuits:
- Progress in the class action suit, plus any new legal or regulatory actions targeting social media platforms’ impact on children and teens. ^[72]

Final Thoughts (Not Investment Advice)

As of December 6, 2025, Snap Inc stock sits at a crossroads:

The business is showing clear signs of improvement—double‑digit revenue growth, record user numbers, rising subscription revenue, and better ad performance metrics.
The stock, however, still carries the scars of past missteps—down massively from its peak, weighed down by regulatory risks, legal overhangs, and ongoing losses.

Most professional analysts therefore land in the middle: SNAP is generally rated a “Hold”, with moderate upside potential but a risk profile that demands a strong stomach and a multi‑year time horizon.

Anyone considering Snap Inc stock should treat the latest news, forecasts, and analyses as inputs—not instructions—and combine them with their own research, risk tolerance, and investment strategy. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.