Snowflake (SNOW) Stock After Q3 2026: AI Momentum, December Sell‑Off and What Comes Next

Snowflake Inc. (NYSE: SNOW) has just delivered another quarter of near‑30% growth and raised its full‑year outlook — and yet the stock has been hit by a sharp December pullback. For investors following Snowflake stock news on 8 December 2025, the key question is whether this latest dip is a buying opportunity or a warning sign about slowing growth and a still‑aggressive valuation.

This article pulls together the most important Snowflake stock news, forecasts and analyst commentary around the Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings release, updated through 8 December 2025.

Snowflake stock today: still expensive after an 11% post‑earnings drop

As of the latest available close, Snowflake stock trades around $229 per share, giving the AI data‑cloud specialist a market capitalization of roughly $78 billion. Over the last year, SNOW has traded in a 52‑week range of about $120 to $281, with a one‑year gain of roughly 26–27%. ^[1]

On Snowflake’s own investor relations page, the company lists a recent stock quote of $228.79, with an intraday range between about $225.60 and $234, and average daily trading volume near 11.7 million shares. ^[2]

The headline move this week was the ~9–11% slide following Snowflake’s Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings and guidance update. Reuters notes that shares fell about 11% on 4 December after Snowflake guided for 27% product revenue growth in Q4, down from 29% in Q3, in part because of discounts on large, long‑term deals that depress short‑term revenue. ^[3] Quiver Quantitative separately estimates that SNOW fell about 9% over the last week, reinforcing the idea of a sharp, earnings‑driven pullback. ^[4]

Despite this latest drop, Snowflake shares are still up more than 70% year‑to‑date in 2025, according to Reuters, and remain well above their 2022 lows. ^[5] Trefis points out that the stock once traded as high as $401.89 in November 2021, then crashed to $113.30 in June 2022 — a peak‑to‑trough decline of 71.8% — and has yet to revisit those old highs, with a recent peak around $277.14 on 3 November 2025. ^[6]

Q3 fiscal 2026: near‑30% growth and rising AI adoption

Snowflake’s Q3 fiscal 2026 (quarter ended 31 October 2025) was strong on most traditional metrics:

Total revenue: $1.21 billion, +29% year over year
Product revenue: $1.16 billion, also +29% year over year
Net revenue retention: 125%
Remaining performance obligations (RPO): $7.88 billion, up 37%
Large customers: 688 customers generating more than $1 million in trailing‑12‑month product revenue; 766 Forbes Global 2000 customers ^[7]

On a non‑GAAP basis, Snowflake reported:

Product gross margin around 76%
Non‑GAAP operating margin of 11%
Healthy free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow margins near 9–11% ^[8]

Snowflake also continues to emphasize that it is now an “AI Data Cloud” company. Management highlighted that Snowflake Intelligence, its new enterprise AI agent, achieved the fastest adoption ramp in company history, helping customers query and act on data through natural‑language interfaces. ^[9]

According to a recent earnings summary, Snowflake’s AI‑related revenue has already reached about a $100 million annualized run rate, underscoring that AI is now a meaningful, if still small, contributor to the top line. ^[10]

Guidance: growth remains high, but the pace is slowing

The main source of investor anxiety is not the Q3 numbers themselves, but what comes next.

From the company’s own guidance:

Q4 FY26 product revenue:$1.195–1.200 billion, implying 27% year‑over‑year growth
Full‑year FY26 product revenue: about $4.446 billion, up 28% year over year
Full‑year FY26 non‑GAAP product gross margin: ~75%
Full‑year FY26 non‑GAAP operating margin: ~9%
Full‑year FY26 adjusted free cash flow margin: ~25% ^[11]

That guidance still represents high‑20s percentage growth, but it also confirms a gradual deceleration from the hyper‑growth years when Snowflake routinely posted 70–100% growth. Reuters emphasized that the Q4 product guidance of 27% growth was a key reason for the stock’s double‑digit sell‑off, especially when investors were hoping for a sharper inflection from AI. ^[12]

Some analysts on platforms like Seeking Alpha describe the quarter as a “double beat and raise” (revenue and earnings both beating consensus, plus higher full‑year guidance) and argue that worries about slightly softer near‑term growth are overdone. ^[13]

AI partnerships: Anthropic, Snowflake Intelligence and new collaborations

AI continues to be central to the Snowflake investment story:

Snowflake now describes itself as the “AI Data Cloud”, positioning its platform as the engine that powers data engineering, analytics, AI and applications across clouds. ^[14]
The company recently signed a $200 million multi‑year partnership with Anthropic, integrating Claude models more deeply into Snowflake’s governed environment to support production‑grade AI agents, particularly in highly regulated industries. ^[15]
Snowflake says more than 7,300 businesses interact with its AI features every week, and its new agentic AI solution, Snowflake Intelligence, attracted about 1,200 customers within a month of launch. ^[16]
Recent results also featured AI‑focused collaborations with Accenture and Safe Software, aimed at accelerating enterprise AI and data‑integration use cases on Snowflake’s platform. ^[17]

Simply Wall St summarizes the current narrative: to own Snowflake, investors must believe that its AI Data Cloud can turn growing enterprise AI demand into durable, usage‑based revenue, not just a series of short‑term pilots. Their model projects revenue of about $7.8 billion and earnings of roughly $497.5 million by 2028, implying compound annual revenue growth around 24%, and estimates a fair value near $272.69 per share, about 19% above recent prices. ^[18]

Valuation: still one of the priciest software stocks

Even after the correction, Snowflake remains expensively valued by nearly any traditional metric:

MarketBeat data puts Snowflake’s market capitalization at $77.7 billion, with a negative trailing GAAP P/E around –56.8, reflecting continued GAAP losses despite strong non‑GAAP profitability. ^[19]
Reuters reports that SNOW trades at roughly 165x next‑12‑month earnings estimates, compared with about 66x for Datadog and 76x for MongoDB, highlighting Snowflake’s substantial valuation premium versus peers. ^[20]
Based on a roughly $78 billion market cap and sell‑side revenue estimates close to $4.7 billion for the current fiscal year, Snowflake trades at about 16–17 times forward sales — multiple times the revenue multiples of many other large‑cap software names. ^[21]

A recent Seeking Alpha comparison between Snowflake and Palantir notes that, despite Snowflake’s strong Q3 beat and raised guidance, confidence in its steep ~223x earnings multiple has faded as investors debate how quickly margins can expand and whether GAAP profitability is realistically in sight. ^[22]

Analyst ratings and Snowflake stock forecast

Despite valuation concerns, Wall Street remains broadly bullish on Snowflake stock:

StockAnalysis, which aggregates forecasts from 43 analysts, classifies the consensus rating as “Strong Buy” with an average 12‑month price target of about $268.74, implying roughly 17–18% upside from current levels. The target range spans $185 on the low end to $325 on the high end. ^[23]
MarketBeat’s survey of analyst coverage is similar: it counts 2 Strong Buy, 35 Buy, 3 Hold and 3 Sell ratings, for an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average target of about $275.05. ^[24]
Quiver Quantitative tracks 37 analysts who have issued price targets over the last six months, with a median target of $275. Recent updates include targets of $270 from Canaccord, $285 from Piper Sandler, $275 from Rosenblatt, $300 from DA Davidson, $312 from BTIG and $299 from Morgan Stanley. ^[25]

Individual firms have been nudging targets higher around the Q3 print:

Macquarie: $235 → $250, rating “Hold” ^[26]
Deutsche Bank: $250 → $275, “Strong Buy” ^[27]
Evercore ISI: $280 → $300, “Buy/Outperform” ^[28]
JMP Securities: $283 → $325, “Market Outperform” ^[29]

In aggregate, most published Snowflake stock forecasts point to mid‑teens to low‑20s percentage upside over the next 12 months, assuming the company delivers on its high‑20s growth guidance and continues converting AI interest into spending.

Fundamental forecasts: revenue and earnings outlook

Looking at the consensus numbers gives a sense of how analysts see Snowflake’s financial trajectory:

Revenue this fiscal year (FY26): about $4.69 billion, up ~29% from $3.63 billion the prior year
Revenue next fiscal year (FY27): ~$5.81 billion, implying another 24% growth
EPS this year: expected to improve from around –$3.86 to +$1.22 on an adjusted basis
EPS next year: forecast to rise further to around $1.67, roughly 37% growth year over year ^[30]

However, other data providers like MarketBeat still show negative GAAP EPS for FY26 (around –$2.36), highlighting the gap between non‑GAAP profitability and GAAP losses that include stock‑based compensation and other non‑cash items. ^[31]

The big picture: analysts expect slowing but still robust growth, continued margin expansion on an adjusted basis, and a multi‑year path toward sustained GAAP profitability — but that path is not yet fully reflected in GAAP numbers.

Institutional buying, insider selling and ownership trends

The latest 13F filings and December 8 news show active institutional positioning in Snowflake stock:

California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) increased its Snowflake stake by 7% in Q2, to 502,218 shares worth about $112.4 million, representing roughly 0.15% of the company. ^[32]
Temasek Holdings, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, disclosed a new Snowflake position of 182,161 shares, valued around $40.8 million, equating to about 0.05% ownership. ^[33]
Avalon Global Asset Management cut its holdings by 40.5% in Q2, selling 86,000 shares and ending the period with 126,200 shares worth roughly $28.2 million, though Snowflake still represents about 3.3% of its portfolio and remains a top‑five holding. ^[34]

Across the shareholder base, roughly 65% of Snowflake stock is held by institutions and hedge funds, with major holders including Vanguard, Jennison Associates, Artisan Partners and T. Rowe Price, many of which increased their positions in recent quarters. ^[35]

At the same time, there has been notable insider selling:

Director Frank Slootman sold 7,551 shares at an average price of about $221.24, and director Michael Speiser sold over 50,000 shares at average prices in the mid‑$250s. ^[36]
Over the last 90 days, insiders have sold approximately 170,564 shares worth about $41.7 million, and insiders collectively own about 6.8% of the company. ^[37]

Institutional accumulation alongside insider selling is not unusual for a maturing high‑growth company, but it does add another layer for investors to track as they gauge sentiment among both long‑term institutions and company insiders.

Bull vs. bear case: how analysts frame Snowflake stock now

Bull case: “AI winner” with durable growth

Bullish analysts and commentators highlight several points:

Durable growth: With high‑20s product revenue growth and a large backlog (RPO up 37%), Snowflake still looks like a structural share‑gainer in cloud data and analytics. ^[38]
AI monetization runway: AI features, including Snowflake Intelligence and the Anthropic partnership, are already producing a $100 million AI revenue run rate, and could significantly increase consumption over time as enterprises build AI apps on Snowflake’s data. ^[39]
High‑quality economics: Non‑GAAP product gross margins in the mid‑70s and improving operating margins suggest strong long‑term profit potential once investment intensity moderates. ^[40]
Supportive Wall Street coverage: The cluster of price targets in the $270–$300+ range, combined with broadly “Buy” or better ratings, signals that most analysts view the December sell‑off as a valuation reset rather than a fundamental breakdown. ^[41]

Some research pieces explicitly frame Snowflake as a “buy the dip” opportunity, arguing that the market is over‑reacting to a small deceleration in growth while under‑appreciating tangible AI traction. ^[42]

Bear case: slowing growth and a rich multiple

More cautious voices point to several risks:

Decelerating growth: Moving from triple‑digit growth to ~27–29% puts Snowflake more squarely in large‑cap, mature‑growth territory while the valuation still resembles an early‑stage hyper‑growth name. ^[43]
Margin uncertainty: Although non‑GAAP margins are improving, Snowflake’s GAAP net margin remains around –30%, and return on equity is still deeply negative. The company continues to issue substantial stock‑based compensation. ^[44]
Competition: Hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) continue to invest heavily in their own data platforms and AI stacks, while focused players like Datadog, MongoDB and Palantir are fighting for adjacent workloads. The recent Seeking Alpha comparison argues that Palantir’s AI monetization roadmap currently looks more scalable and profitable than Snowflake’s, despite both trading at premium multiples. ^[45]
Valuation risk: With forward earnings multiples north of 150x and revenue multiples in the mid‑teens, Snowflake leaves little room for execution missteps or macro setbacks. Several analyses explicitly ask whether Snowflake can “recover if markets fall” or if its AI premium could compress in a broader risk‑off environment. ^[46]

Key things for investors to watch into 2026

For those tracking Snowflake stock heading into 2026, the latest news and forecasts suggest several key watchpoints:

AI revenue traction
- How quickly does the AI revenue run rate grow from around $100 million today?
- Does usage of Snowflake Intelligence and third‑party models like Anthropic’s Claude translate into higher average consumption per customer, not just more pilots? ^[47]
Growth vs. discounts
- Management is using discounts on large, long‑term contracts to lock in customers, which pressures near‑term product revenue. Investors will watch whether this strategy ultimately yields higher lifetime value and more stable growth. ^[48]
Path to GAAP profitability
- Sell‑side models already show positive non‑GAAP EPS and improving free‑cash‑flow margins, but GAAP earnings remain negative. Evidence of sustained GAAP profitability could help justify Snowflake’s elevated multiples. ^[49]
Competitive landscape
- Partnerships with Accenture, Anthropic and others help differentiate Snowflake, but hyperscaler competition and specialized AI platforms remain a serious threat. Monitoring win‑rates, workload expansion and customer churn will be critical. ^[50]
Valuation discipline
- With consensus price targets clustered near $270–$280 and the stock trading around $230, the implied upside is meaningful but not enormous, especially given volatility and execution risk. How investors weigh risk vs. reward at these levels will likely dictate whether SNOW trades closer to its highs or drifts back toward the middle of its 52‑week range. ^[51]

Bottom line: what the December 2025 setup means for Snowflake stock

As of 8 December 2025, the Snowflake story looks like a classic high‑growth, high‑valuation crossroads:

Fundamentals are solid: near‑30% growth, strong net‑revenue retention, a swelling backlog and rapidly growing AI usage. ^[52]
Valuation is still demanding, even after a sharp post‑earnings sell‑off, and assumes Snowflake will successfully convert the AI Data Cloud narrative into durable, high‑margin cash flows. ^[53]
Wall Street remains broadly optimistic, with most analysts recommending Buy and targeting high‑single‑digit to low‑20s percentage upside from current levels. ^[54]
Institutional flows show large long‑term investors like CalPERS and Temasek adding to positions, even as insiders take profits and at least one hedge fund trims exposure. ^[55]

For growth‑oriented investors comfortable with volatility and elevated valuations, Snowflake stock news in early December 2025 tells a story of strong execution and early AI monetization, temporarily overshadowed by concerns about the pace of growth and pricing strategy. For more value‑focused or risk‑averse investors, the same data may reinforce the view that, even after the pullback, SNOW remains priced for perfection.

Either way, the next few quarters — particularly the trajectory of AI‑driven consumption and the company’s progress toward GAAP profitability — are likely to determine whether December’s dip becomes a launchpad for the next leg higher or the start of a longer‑lasting re‑rating.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.