Snowflake (SNOW) Stock Outlook After November 21, 2025: AI Deals, Legal Risks and Price Targets to 2030

As of December 11, 2025, Snowflake Inc. (NYSE: SNOW) sits right at the intersection of three powerful storylines: explosive AI demand, nervousness about profit margins, and mounting legal and regulatory risk. Since November 21, 2025, those threads have come together in a way that has materially reshaped the stock’s risk–reward profile.

Snowflake shares currently trade around $218 per share, down roughly 7% from their $234.03 close on November 21, and about 22% below the three‑year high of $280.67 set on November 3. ^[1] Even after the post‑earnings sell‑off, the stock remains more than 50% higher year‑to‑date, reflecting how central Snowflake has become to the AI trade in 2025. ^[2]

Below is a structured look at what has happened from November 21, 2025 onward—including earnings, AI product launches, lawsuits, and fresh Wall Street forecasts—plus what that might mean for the trajectory of SNOW stock.

1. Price Action Since November 21, 2025: From Pullback to Post‑Earnings Slide

November 21 itself was an inflection point.

On that day, Snowflake:

Closed at $234.03, after trading between $246.37 and $228.58, on volume of about 6.8 million shares. ^[3]
Extended a short slide from the prior day’s close of $244.66, marking a 4.3% single‑day drop as investors took profits after the earlier rally. ^[4]

That pullback came just weeks after Snowflake hit a three‑year high of $280.67 on November 3. According to Schaeffer’s Research, the decline toward late November was caught by the 100‑day moving average, a trendline that has historically acted as support for the stock; even after that drop, SNOW was still roughly 54% higher year‑to‑date as of early December. ^[5]

After November 21:

The stock bounced back toward the mid‑$240s–$250s into November 25–28. ^[6]
The real break came after Q3 FY26 earnings (released December 3), when a strong top‑ and bottom‑line beat was overshadowed by weaker‑than‑expected margin guidance, sending the stock down about 10–11% in a single session to the high‑$230s on December 4. ^[7]
Since then, shares have drifted lower again to around $218, even as Wall Street analysts raised their price targets. ^[8]

In other words, since November 21 the chart tells a classic “sell the news” story: a richly valued AI leader rallies near highs, then re‑prices when investors decide near‑term profit pressure matters more than headline growth.

2. Q3 FY26: Strong Growth, Narrowing Losses, but Profit Still Elusive

Snowflake’s third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended October 31, 2025) showed why the stock had been on such a tear heading into late November:

Total revenue:$1.21 billion, up 29% year‑over‑year. ^[9]
Product revenue:$1.16 billion, also growing 29%. ^[10]
Net revenue retention:125%, meaning existing customers, on average, are still expanding their spend significantly. ^[11]
Large customers:688 customers generated more than $1 million in trailing 12‑month product revenue; 766 of Snowflake’s customers are Forbes Global 2000 companies. ^[12]
Remaining performance obligations (RPO):$7.88 billion, up 37% year‑over‑year, with roughly 48% expected to convert to revenue in the next 12 months. ^[13]

On profitability:

Snowflake delivered non‑GAAP operating income of $131.3 million, an 11% margin, but on a GAAP basis still lost $329.5 million at the operating line. ^[14]
The GAAP net loss for the quarter was $291.6 million, though that was narrower than the $327.9 million loss in the prior‑year quarter. ^[15]
For the first nine months of the fiscal year, revenue reached $3.40 billion (vs. $2.64 billion a year earlier), but the cumulative net loss widened slightly to about $1.02 billion, even as operating cash flow turned strongly positive at $440.8 million. ^[16]

Taken together, Q3 reinforced the core Snowflake story:

Growth remains high‑20s to low‑30s percent,
Customer loyalty is exceptional,
Cash generation is improving,
But the company still runs deeply negative GAAP margins and must keep spending aggressively to defend its AI and data cloud lead.

3. The Guidance Shock: Margin Compression Spooks the Market

If the quarter looked strong, the guidance did not—and that’s what broke the stock in early December.

For Q4 FY26, Snowflake guided to: ^[17]

Product revenue of $1.195–$1.20 billion, about 27% growth year‑over‑year, implying a modest deceleration from Q3’s 29%.
Adjusted operating margin of 7%, down from 11% in Q3 and from prior guidance of 9%.

Investopedia notes that this 4‑point margin step‑down raised concerns that AI‑related investments and discounting are squeezing profits, even as the company continues to beat expectations on revenue and EPS (Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.35 versus estimates around $0.31). ^[18]

Management has tried to calm nerves:

CFO Brian Robins told analysts not to “read too much into” the lower Q4 margin guidance, while
CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy reiterated that Snowflake plans to keep investing, but also sees room for efficiency gains and more disciplined stock‑based compensation. ^[19]

Still, the guidance landed poorly. Schaeffer’s Research and other outlets reported that shares fell about 10–11% on December 4, sliding back toward late‑November lows even as multiple brokers raised price targets after digesting the results. ^[20]

4. AI Momentum: $100M Run-Rate and a $200M Anthropic Deal

Despite margin worries, the AI story around Snowflake has only gotten louder since November 21.

4.1. AI_COMPLETE and platform upgrades

On November 21, 2025, Snowflake made its AI_COMPLETE function generally available. AI_COMPLETE is a general‑purpose Cortex AI function that lets customers generate responses from prompts using their choice of large language model, working with both text and images and handling tasks ranging from summarization and classification to extraction and comparison. ^[21]

This is part of a broader push to turn Snowflake into a full AI data platform, not just a data warehouse: the company has been rapidly rolling out AI‑centric features and integrations across its AI Data Cloud. ^[22]

4.2. $100M AI revenue run-rate

In early December, CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy revealed that Snowflake’s AI business has already reached a $100 million annualized revenue run‑rate, one quarter ahead of plan. ^[23]

Crucially, he emphasized that the figure reflects actual consumption, not marketing fluff. Benzinga reports that management framed it as “consumption‑driven proof” rather than PowerPoint‑style projections—underscoring that customers are paying for production AI workloads today, not merely signing theoretical commitments. ^[24]

Additional AI datapoints from recent commentary:

About 50% of new bookings are tied to AI use cases. ^[25]
Roughly 28% of all use cases deployed in the quarter incorporated AI, increasing platform stickiness. ^[26]

4.3. Anthropic and ecosystem partnerships

Snowflake also announced a $200 million multi‑year deal with Anthropic, integrating Claude models deeply into Snowflake’s AI Data Cloud—part of what the company describes as enabling “agentic AI” for enterprise customers. ^[27]

Recent coverage notes that:

Snowflake’s Snowflake Intelligence enterprise AI agent has seen the fastest adoption ramp in company history. ^[28]
The company has surpassed $2 billion in AWS Marketplace transactions and signed new AI‑oriented partnerships with names like Palantir and SAP, alongside a deeper global alliance with Accenture. ^[29]

These moves buttress the bullish view that Snowflake is becoming a core infrastructure layer for enterprise AI, not just another analytics tool.

5. New Legal and Data Risks: The November 21 LLM Copyright Class Action

November 21, 2025 was not only about stock price action; it also marked a new legal overhang.

In Snowflake’s freshly filed Q3 FY26 Form 10‑Q, the company disclosed that on November 21, 2025, a class action lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana. The suit alleges copyright infringement on behalf of a putative class of copyright holders whose works were allegedly copied, stored, or used without authorization to train Snowflake’s large language model. ^[30]

This new case comes on top of:

An earlier securities class action in California involving former executives, and
A separate multidistrict litigation in Montana over alleged data‑security failures that let attackers exfiltrate personally identifiable information from Snowflake‑hosted systems. ^[31]

In all of these matters, Snowflake says it cannot yet estimate potential losses and intends to vigorously defend itself. ^[32]

For investors, the key takeaway since November 21 is that legal risk around AI training data and security is no longer theoretical. Any adverse rulings, settlements, or stricter regulatory interpretations could affect Snowflake’s cost structure, AI strategy, or reputation over time.

6. Valuation Check: Is Snowflake Overpriced in the AI Boom?

Even after the post‑earnings drop, SNOW is still priced as a premium AI growth asset, and multiple independent analyses published since late November flag valuation as a central risk.

6.1. DCF and price‑to‑sales metrics

A detailed valuation breakdown from Simply Wall St. concludes that: ^[33]

A discounted cash flow (DCF) model implies a fair value around $182.63 per share, suggesting the stock is about 38% overvalued versus recent trading levels at the time of the analysis.
Snowflake trades at roughly 20.7× sales, versus an estimated 2.7× for the broader software industry and ~20.2× for close peers.
Their proprietary “Fair Ratio” framework suggests a more reasonable multiple of ~15× sales, again indicating the stock trades at a premium to what its growth and risk profile might justify.

Simply Wall St labels SNOW “overvalued” on both DCF and P/S metrics, despite highlighting an excellent balance sheet and strong long‑term growth potential. ^[34]

6.2. “AI winter” worries

A widely circulated December 4 article from 24/7 Wall St. frames Snowflake’s earnings as a potential signal of an “AI winter”, arguing that: ^[35]

Snowflake’s Q3 product revenue grew around the high‑20s, but guidance points to slower growth and heavier discounting to close deals, which shaved net revenue retention from roughly 127% to 125%.
Investors have priced in 30%+ growth, so any deceleration—especially if driven by pricing pressure—creates downside risk.
With Snowflake up more than 50% year‑to‑date, the article estimates the stock is trading at roughly 140× forward earnings and around 18× sales, arguing that a reset closer to 100× earnings is plausible.

The author’s bottom line: they do not view the earnings drop as a straightforward “buy‑the‑dip” opportunity, warning that if enterprises reassess AI budgets due to disappointing ROI, data‑platform providers like Snowflake could be hit disproportionately. ^[36]

6.3. Profitability metrics

Macro valuation sites also highlight that Snowflake’s return on invested capital (ROIC) remains deeply negative—around ‑28.6% as of November 21, 2025, improving to about ‑27.3% by December 10 but still well below breakeven, even as the three‑year average is roughly ‑29%. ^[37]

Combined with the company’s continuing GAAP losses, these metrics reinforce the idea that Snowflake is still very much a “growth first, profit later” story—one investors pay up heavily for, and which could re‑rate sharply if growth or AI enthusiasm slows.

7. Wall Street Sentiment and Price Targets Since Late November

Despite all the anxiety, Wall Street’s official stance on SNOW remains broadly bullish, and the period since November 21 has brought a wave of target hikes rather than cuts.

7.1. Analyst reaction to Q3 FY26

Investopedia, citing Visible Alpha data, reports that even after the post‑earnings sell‑off: ^[38]

The mean analyst price target is around $280.
Of 21 analysts tracked, 19 rate the stock a “buy”, with just one neutral and one sell rating.

Benzinga’s recap of post‑earnings moves shows at least eight major firms raising their targets, including: ^[39]

Morgan Stanley: Overweight, target lifted to $299.
Wells Fargo: Overweight, target up to $290.
Scotiabank: Sector Outperform, target to $290.
KeyBanc, Baird, Cantor, Canaccord, Stifel: all maintaining bullish ratings while pushing targets mostly into the $270–$285 range.

Schaeffer’s Research notes that this cluster of upgrades followed Q3 results and that Snowflake still trades with a volatility scorecard of 79 out of 100, meaning its realized volatility often exceeds what its options market prices in. ^[40]

7.2. Long-term 2025–2030 forecasts

For longer‑dated scenarios, a November 23 price‑prediction piece from 24/7 Wall St. lays out a structured forecast based on both analyst consensus and their own modeling: ^[41]

Among 34 Wall Street analysts, SNOW carries a “Strong Buy” consensus, with 31 Buys, 3 Holds, and 0 Sells.
The median 12‑month price target is cited at $274.58, implying high‑teens upside from prices around the time of publication.
24/7’s own base‑case forecast is more cautious in the near term:
- 2025: $222.75 (slight downside from then‑current price),
- 2026: $247.03,
- 2027: $290.15,
- 2028: $353.57,
- 2029: $444.18,
- 2030: $472.65 (roughly doubling from their starting point).

Their model assumes Snowflake’s revenue climbs to about $10.5 billion by 2030, with EPS around $4.12, implying robust but gradually decelerating growth. ^[42]

These projections highlight two things:

Consensus remains structurally bullish on Snowflake’s ability to compound revenue well into the next decade.
There is significant dispersion between near‑term views (some see downside from current levels) and long‑term upside scenarios that still justify paying high multiples today.

8. Bull vs. Bear Case After November 21, 2025

Given everything that has happened since November 21, the debate around Snowflake stock has crystallized into a few core arguments on each side.

Bull case

Supporters of the stock tend to emphasize that:

Snowflake is now deeply embedded in enterprise data and AI strategies, with 125% net revenue retention, hundreds of $1M+ customers, and nearly $8 billion in RPO. ^[43]
AI is not just a buzzword: the company has already hit a $100 million AI revenue run‑rate, ahead of schedule, with half of new bookings tied to AI use cases. ^[44]
Product innovation is accelerating, with features like AI_COMPLETE, data‑clean room enhancements, and deep partnerships with Anthropic, AWS, Palantir, SAP, and Accenture, all of which could reinforce Snowflake’s role as a neutral, multi‑cloud AI data layer. ^[45]
Non‑GAAP profitability and strong free cash flow demonstrate a path to sustainable earnings once investment levels normalize. ^[46]

Bear case

Skeptics, meanwhile, focus on:

Valuation risk: DCF and P/S analyses showing the stock 30–40% above fair value under conservative assumptions, with multiples far richer than the average software peer. ^[47]
Margin compression, with Q4 guidance cutting non‑GAAP operating margin from 11% to 7%, suggesting AI investment and discounting could weigh on profits longer than bulls expect. ^[48]
Decelerating growth, as product revenue growth gradually moves from the 30–40% range into the mid‑20s, while investors have priced in a long runway of near‑30% expansion. ^[49]
Legal and data‑privacy overhangs, including multi‑front class‑action litigation (securities, data breach, and now LLM copyright claims) that could add cost and regulatory scrutiny. ^[50]
Broader concerns about a possible “AI winter”, where enterprise spending on AI fails to deliver the returns required to justify current infrastructure outlays, potentially hitting data‑platform providers especially hard. ^[51]

9. What to Watch Next for SNOW

For anyone following Snowflake stock after November 21, 2025, the key catalysts to monitor into 2026 include:

Q4 FY26 results and FY27 guidance
- Does product revenue growth hold in the high‑20s?
- Do margins rebound toward double digits, or does spending stay elevated? ^[52]
AI monetization metrics
- Updates on the AI revenue run‑rate (does it break past $100M quickly?),
- Adoption of AI_COMPLETE and other Cortex AI features,
- Concrete case studies showing measurable ROI for customers, which would counter “AI winter” fears. ^[53]
Legal developments
- Progress in the data‑breach MDL in Montana, the securities class action in California, and the new LLM copyright class action filed on November 21.
- Any settlements, dismissals, or adverse rulings that change the risk profile. ^[54]
Valuation vs. fundamentals
- Whether Snowflake can grow into its multiples through sustained 25–30%+ revenue growth and rising free cash flow, or whether multiple compression continues if growth cools. ^[55]

Final note

This article is informational and educational, summarizing public news, filings, and analyst commentary on Snowflake Inc. since November 21, 2025. It is not investment advice and doesn’t take into account your individual objectives or financial situation. Before buying or selling SNOW—or any stock—you should do your own research and consider speaking with a qualified financial professional.