Snowflake Inc. (NYSE: SNOW) heads into Thursday’s session as one of the most closely watched AI and data‑infrastructure names on the market — but its share price is still digesting a painful post‑earnings reset.
At the close on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, Snowflake stock finished regular trading at about $216.5 per share, down roughly 2.7% on the day, with a session range between $216.00 and $221.85. [1] After the bell, SNOW slipped again in after‑hours trading to around $215.3 (-0.6%), extending a five‑day losing streak that has erased close to 18% from its December 3 pre‑earnings high near $265. [2]
Here’s what happened to Snowflake stock after the bell on December 10 — and the key things traders and longer‑term investors should know before the U.S. market opens on Thursday, December 11, 2025.
1. Price Action Recap: A Red Day, Then a Soft After‑Hours Drift
Regular session, Dec. 10, 2025
- Close: ~$216.55
- Change:-2.7% on the day
- Day’s range:$216.00 – $221.85
- Volume: c. 8.7–9.2 million shares, well above average. [3]
According to technical research from StockInvest, Wednesday marked Snowflake’s fifth straight daily decline, with the stock down about 13–14% over the last 10 trading days and more than 21% below a pivot top identified in early November. [4] Their system has labeled SNOW a short‑term “sell candidate” since December 4, even while projecting a 10% upside over the next three months if the longer‑term uptrend reasserts itself. [5]
After hours, Dec. 10, 2025
On Investing.com, Snowflake’s after‑hours quote showed the stock easing to about $215.32 (-0.57%) by early evening New York time, a modest extension of the regular‑session selling. [6]
There was no single new bombshell headline after the close. Instead, trading reflected an ongoing tug‑of‑war between:
- Bulls who see Snowflake as a long‑term AI “data backbone,” and
- Bears and profit‑takers focused on slowing product‑revenue growth, discounting pressure, and rich valuation multiples.
2. The Earnings Hangover Driving Sentiment
Snowflake’s current slide is still all about last week’s earnings and guidance.
Q3 results: Strong numbers…
Snowflake’s Q3 CY2025 (fiscal Q3 FY2026) numbers beat Wall Street expectations across key metrics: [7]
- Revenue:$1.21 billion, up 28.7% year on year, beating estimates of $1.19 billion.
- Adjusted EPS:$0.35 vs. $0.31 expected.
- Adjusted operating income:$131.3 million (10.8% margin), materially ahead of consensus.
- Large customers (> $1M annual revenue):688.
- Net revenue retention:125%, still very strong.
- Billings:$1.37 billion, up 28% year on year.
Management highlighted rapid adoption of AI‑driven offerings such as Snowflake Intelligence and AI workloads in general. Around 28% of use‑cases deployed in the quarter incorporated AI, according to commentary summarized by StockStory. [8]
Independent analyses on Morningstar, the Wall Street Journal, and other outlets broadly agreed: the quarter itself was good, with Snowflake demonstrating solid growth, improving margins, and strong AI traction. [9]
…but slower guidance and discounting spooked the market
What really hurt the stock was not the quarter but the outlook:
- Q4 product revenue guidance implies growth slowing from ~29% in Q3 to about 27% year on year. [10]
- Management acknowledged heavier discounting on large, long‑duration deals, which boosts backlog but pressures near‑term revenue and margins. TechStock²
- Net revenue retention around 125% is excellent, but down from earlier years, signaling customers are expanding spend more cautiously and negotiating harder on price. [11]
Following the earnings release on December 3, SNOW initially bounced, but then:
- Fell roughly 8–11% in after‑hours and pre‑market trading, according to Reuters and multiple market recap pieces. [12]
- Dropped 11.4% on December 4 alone, from about $265 to $234.77, as investors processed slower product revenue guidance and margin concerns. [13]
Morningstar warned that margin pressure is unlikely to ease quickly as competition from Datadog, MongoDB, Confluent and the hyperscalers themselves remains intense. [14]
In short, Snowflake beat on the quarter but underwhelmed on the trajectory, and that’s still the context for every tick in the stock.
3. AI Mega‑Deals and Partnerships: The Core Bull Story
Despite guidance concerns, the fundamental bull case rests on Snowflake’s role at the center of enterprise AI.
$200 million Anthropic partnership
On December 3, Snowflake and Anthropic announced a multi‑year, $200 million partnership: TechStock²+1
- Anthropic’s Claude models will be available directly inside Snowflake’s AI Data Cloud across AWS, Google Cloud and Azure.
- The focus is on “agentic AI” — AI agents that can perform multi‑step analysis over governed enterprise data.
- Snowflake already processes trillions of Claude tokens per month via its Cortex AI services and uses Claude internally to boost developer productivity and sales execution.
This deal reinforces Snowflake’s messaging: it’s not just a data warehouse, but the platform where enterprises run AI on their core data.
AWS re:Invent momentum
At AWS re:Invent 2025, Snowflake and Amazon highlighted another set of milestones: TechStock²+1
- Transaction growth in AWS Marketplace doubled year over year, with Snowflake sales through the marketplace surpassing $2 billion.
- Snowflake’s AI Data Cloud became available in AWS Marketplace for the U.S. Intelligence Community, underscoring its security focus.
- Snowflake’s Cortex agents now integrate with AWS AgentCore in Amazon Bedrock, allowing Snowflake’s data agents to run natively within AWS’s AI stack.
Meanwhile, several analyst notes and Benzinga coverage highlighted that Snowflake has already reached a $100 million annualized AI revenue run‑rate, ahead of earlier expectations. [15]
For long‑term AI bulls, these partnerships and milestones — plus high‑20s revenue growth — are why many still view the recent pullback as a potential accumulation opportunity, even if the next few sessions remain choppy.
4. How Wall Street and Models See SNOW After December 10
Street consensus: “Strong Buy” with ~20–30% upside
According to StockAnalysis, 44 sell‑side analysts currently rate Snowflake as a “Strong Buy”, with an average 12‑month price target of about $268.51, implying roughly 24% upside from Wednesday’s close. [16]
Investing.com’s compilation of broker targets paints a similar picture, with average targets in the high‑$260s to low‑$280s and bullish firms like UBS ($310), DA Davidson ($300), Piper Sandler ($285), and Rosenblatt ($275) following Q3 results. TechStock²+1
Yet the tone of research is increasingly polarized:
- A Seeking Alpha piece titled “Snowflake: Wait For A Drop” praises strong AI‑driven remaining performance obligations (RPO up ~37% YoY) but concludes the stock is “fairly valued” and more attractive on a deeper dip. [17]
- Morningstar and MarketWatch stress that decelerating growth plus premium valuation make the risk/reward more fragile, even with solid execution. [18]
- Several Motley Fool articles describe Snowflake as a high‑quality business but not necessarily the best value in the current market, emphasizing that it doesn’t make their top‑10 stock lists right now. [19]
Quant & technical models: More cautious in the near term
While human analysts skew bullish, algorithmic and technical services are more skeptical, especially short‑term:
- StockInvest flags SNOW as a short‑term “Sell” after the recent breakdown, noting: [20]
- Five consecutive down days and a 13.5% drop over the last 10 sessions.
- Support from accumulated volume near $215.95 and resistance around $228.79.
- A predicted fair opening price for Dec. 11 of $218.15, with an expected intraday range of $211.24 – $221.78 (about ±5%).
- Despite near‑term weakness, their three‑month projection still sees SNOW ending in a band around $238–$317 with roughly 10% upside.
- CoinCodex shows a bearish technical sentiment (69% of indicators flashing bearish) and projects: [21]
- A short‑term bounce toward $222.63 on December 11 (about +2.8% vs current levels).
- A drift down to around $207.96 over the next week.
- Much more dramatic long‑term downside in its purely technical model (it even projects big declines over the next year), underscoring how different model‑driven views can be from Street fundamentals.
These are tools, not guarantees, but they highlight that short‑term trading models are leaning cautious, even as most human analysts maintain buy ratings.
5. Flows: Insider Moves, Institutional Buys and Options Activity
Insider activity: Mostly tax withholding, plus one sizable sale
Recent Form 4 filings around early December have drawn attention, but the details matter:
- On December 8, a senior Snowflake executive reported 545 shares “disposed” at $228.79. The filing clarifies these shares were withheld to cover tax obligations from vested restricted stock units (RSUs), not sold in the open market. [22]
- Other December 10 Form 4s show similar RSU‑related withholding, with the insider still holding hundreds of thousands of shares afterward. [23]
Those transactions do not necessarily imply bearishness; they’re mechanical tax events.
More notable is a previously reported open‑market sale by director Michael L. Speiser, who sold roughly 50,000 shares for about $11.7 million in proceeds at prices between ~$230–$233 under a pre‑arranged 10b5‑1 trading plan, while retaining a substantial indirect stake. TechStock²
Institutional positioning: Daiwa increases exposure
On the institutional side, Daiwa Securities Group disclosed that it raised its position in Snowflake by about 31.8% in Q2, according to MarketBeat’s review of 13F filings. [24]
That suggests some long‑only professional investors still see Snowflake as an attractive way to play the AI and data‑cloud theme, even after the recent slide.
Options market: Short‑term bulls show up
The TS2 analysis on December 10 flagged unusual options activity:
- Bullish call sweeps at the $220 strike expiring December 12, 2025, with tens of thousands of dollars in premium trading hands in a short window. TechStock²
These kinds of flows don’t guarantee a move, but they show some large traders are positioning for at least a short‑term bounce from the current ~$215–220 range.
6. Key Levels and Signals to Watch Before the December 11 Open
Going into Thursday’s pre‑market and regular session, here are the price levels and signals most traders will be watching:
1. Immediate support around $216
- StockInvest highlights $215.95 as a key support level based on accumulated trading volume. [25]
- Wednesday’s low was $216.00, and after‑hours trading hovered just below the close, near $215.3. [26]
If SNOW holds and bounces from this zone, it would support the idea that short‑term selling pressure is slowing. A decisive break below, especially with heavy volume, could invite more technical selling toward the low‑$210s.
2. First resistance in the high $220s
StockInvest’s analysis points to $228.79 as the first major resistance, with additional overhead resistance around $234.77 (the December 4 close) and then the pre‑earnings high near $265. [27]
Any strong pre‑market move or early‑session rally that pushes SNOW through $222–228 with convincing volume would suggest more aggressive dip‑buyers stepping back in.
3. Short‑term forecasts vs. reality
- StockInvest expects an opening print around $218.15 on Thursday with a wide intraday range of roughly $211–222. [28]
- CoinCodex projects Snowflake could reach $222.63 on December 11 before fading again in subsequent days. [29]
These models are useful for scenario planning, but traders will pair them with real‑time pre‑market quotes, overall risk sentiment, and broader index futures before acting.
4. Macro backdrop: Fed and AI sentiment
Across the broader market, investors remain laser‑focused on Federal Reserve policy and inflation data, with recent sessions in the major indexes fairly muted as traders position for the next rate‑cut signals. [30]
Snowflake, as a high‑multiple growth name, tends to be sensitive to shifts in rate expectations and in broader enthusiasm (or skepticism) toward AI‑related spending. Any hawkish surprise from the Fed or a sharp rotation out of growth could add pressure, regardless of company‑specific news.
7. Bigger Picture: Risks, Narratives and 2026 Outlook
Across recent research, three broad narratives have emerged for Snowflake’s next couple of years: TechStock²+2FinancialContent+2
Bull case
- AI data platform of choice: Anthropic, AWS and other partnerships cement Snowflake as the default platform for data‑intensive AI workloads.
- Growth stays high: Product revenue growth stabilizes in the high‑20s to low‑30s as AI projects move from pilot to production.
- Margins expand: Operating and free‑cash‑flow margins improve faster than expected, making valuation look more reasonable and supporting targets in the $275–$310 range.
Base case
- Growth decelerates but remains healthy, settling in the mid‑20s.
- Net revenue retention drifts slightly lower but remains >120%, and Snowflake continues to win large multi‑year AI deals.
- Shareholder returns roughly track revenue and earnings growth, with limited multiple expansion from today’s high levels.
Bear case
- Companies scale back AI budgets amid concerns about return on investment, leading to an “AI winter” for high‑multiple infrastructure names.
- Pricing pressure intensifies, net revenue retention falls more sharply, and growth slows into the high teens.
- The stock de‑rates toward DCF‑based fair‑value estimates in the $160–$170 range, as modeled by some valuation services. TechStock²
Add to that:
- Valuation risk: Snowflake still trades at triple‑digit forward P/E and mid‑teens price‑to‑sales multiples, far above many software peers. [31]
- Execution risk: Heavy reliance on deep alliances with hyperscalers and AI model providers (like Anthropic) adds partnership and competitive risk. TechStock²+1
That’s why Snowflake is likely to remain a high‑volatility bellwether: each earnings release, AI partnership announcement, or macro shift can move the stock hard in either direction.
8. Practical Checklist Before the December 11 Open
Whether you’re an active trader or a longer‑term investor, here’s a concise checklist to run through before Thursday’s bell:
- Check pre‑market price vs. $216 support
- Is SNOW trading above, at, or below the ~$216 area? A pre‑market rebound toward $220+ would suggest bargain hunters are stepping in; a print closer to $210–213 would confirm ongoing pressure.
- Watch volume trends
- After several sessions of elevated volume on down days, a lighter‑volume sell‑off could hint at seller exhaustion. Heavy pre‑market or early‑session volume on another decline would argue the opposite.
- Track macro headlines and index futures
- Check how Nasdaq and S&P futures react to Fed‑related news and economic data. High‑beta names like Snowflake typically amplify broader market moves.
- Monitor AI and cloud peers
- Stocks like Datadog, MongoDB and other software/AI infrastructure names can provide a read‑across. If peers rally while SNOW lags, that’s more stock‑specific; if the whole group sells off, it’s likely macro or sector rotation.
- Re‑evaluate your time horizon and thesis
- Traders may lean on technical levels ($216 support, $228–235 resistance) and short‑term forecasts. [32]
- Long‑term investors will want to revisit their conviction on:
- Snowflake’s role as an AI Data Cloud leader,
- The sustainability of ~25–30% revenue growth, and
- Comfort with paying a premium multiple for that growth.
9. Final Word
As of the close and early after‑hours on December 10, 2025, Snowflake stock sits at a crossroads:
- Fundamentals: High‑20s revenue growth, improving margins, deep AI integrations with partners like Anthropic and AWS, and strong net revenue retention. [33]
- Valuation & expectations: A premium multiple, slowing guidance and intensifying competition that leave little room for disappointment. [34]
For growth‑oriented investors who believe in a long‑lasting enterprise AI build‑out, the recent pullback and Wednesday’s after‑hours softness may look like an opportunity to buy gradually on weakness.
For valuation‑sensitive investors, it may still feel early — and Thursday’s session could just be another chapter in a longer digestion phase after an enthusiastic AI‑driven run‑up.
Either way, Snowflake is likely to remain volatile, and the opening trade on December 11 will be shaped as much by macro and AI sentiment as by anything Snowflake itself has said in the last week.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. stockinvest.us, 5. stockinvest.us, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.financialcontent.com, 8. www.financialcontent.com, 9. www.morningstar.com, 10. www.financialcontent.com, 11. www.financialcontent.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.morningstar.com, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. seekingalpha.com, 18. www.morningstar.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. stockinvest.us, 21. coincodex.com, 22. www.stocktitan.net, 23. www.stocktitan.net, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. stockinvest.us, 26. www.investing.com, 27. stockinvest.us, 28. stockinvest.us, 29. coincodex.com, 30. www.investopedia.com, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. stockinvest.us, 33. www.financialcontent.com, 34. stockanalysis.com
