Solana’s price is back in the spotlight on Thursday, December 18, 2025, as traders weigh a tug-of-war between supportive institutional narratives (ETFs, payments, tokenization) and softer on-chain activity (lower DeFi deposits and cooling memecoin-driven volume).
As of today, Solana (SOL) is trading around $126.60 per coin, with CoinGecko showing a 24-hour range of roughly $121.76 to $133.35. [1]
That puts SOL firmly in the “mid-$120s battlefield” zone—where short-term technical signals can flip quickly, and where sentiment is being yanked around by a busy news cycle touching everything from spot Solana ETFs to U.S. crypto regulation.
Solana price today in USD: where SOL stands on Dec. 18, 2025
Price feeds vary slightly by venue, but aggregated data today shows:
- SOL price: about $126.60 [2]
- 24h range: roughly $121.76 – $133.35 [3]
- Market cap: about $71.2 billion [4]
- 24h trading volume: about $6.28 billion [5]
Daily market snapshots also show how choppy this week has been. Investing.com’s historical table lists SOL around $126.197 for Dec. 18 with an open near $123.207, and it shows Dec. 17 closing materially lower than earlier week levels—evidence of a sharp midweek shakeout before today’s stabilization attempt. [6]
One detail worth noting: it’s entirely possible for SOL to be up versus yesterday’s close while still down over the last 24 hours, if the 24-hour window includes a higher price earlier in the day (CoinGecko’s range shows a push toward the low-$130s before the pullback). [7]
What’s driving Solana today: the Dec. 18 headline mix
SOL’s short-term direction today is less about one single catalyst and more about a bundle of competing narratives.
1) U.S. regulation is friendlier—but the “big bill” is still stuck
A major macro input for crypto sentiment on Dec. 18 is a Reuters report describing how the industry scored key wins in 2025—while warning momentum may fade in 2026 if the market-structure push stalls.
Reuters notes that under President Trump’s second administration, the sector benefited from moves like the SEC rescinding certain crypto accounting guidance, dismissing prior lawsuits, and the passage of a federal stablecoin law—yet crypto market structure legislation remains stalled in the Senate, creating uncertainty. [8]
Notably for SOL readers: Reuters includes a quote from Miller Whitehouse-Levine, CEO of the Solana Policy Institute, emphasizing that while 2025 was strong for crypto, “there’s a lot of work left to be done.” [9]
Why this matters for SOL/USD: regulatory clarity tends to support risk appetite, ETF product expansion, and institutional activity—but legislative gridlock can cap upside by keeping big allocators cautious.
2) Spot Solana ETFs: flows are supportive, but the ETF “shakeout” risk is rising
By late 2025, SOL isn’t just a token—it’s increasingly a product category. Reuters previously reported that Bitwise’s push to launch a U.S. spot Solana ETF (BSOL) created a scramble among issuers and helped open the door to faster launches under new listing standards. [10]
On Dec. 18, Stocktwits summarized commentary from Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart, who warned that the rapidly expanding crypto ETP/ETF pipeline could set up closures by late 2026–2027 as weaker products fail to attract assets. The same piece cites SoSoValue data showing Solana spot ETFs posted a daily net inflow of about $10.99 million (for Dec. 17, Eastern Time), even as some other categories saw outflows. [11]
Net-net: ETF flows can provide a “bid” under SOL in drawdowns, but the market is also pricing the reality that not every ETF survives once novelty fades and fee wars begin.
3) DeFi on Solana has cooled: TVL and activity metrics are down
A key pressure point in today’s SOL forecast is softer on-chain demand.
Cointelegraph (via TradingView) reports that Solana TVL fell ~34% to about $8.67 billion (a six-month low) from a peak around $13.22 billion in mid-September, and that Solana’s weekly memecoin DEX volume fell 95% from January’s peak—an important driver because memecoin mania was a meaningful throughput and fees engine earlier in 2025. [12]
The same report also flags declines in network fees, active addresses, and transaction counts over the last seven days—metrics traders often treat as “fundamental demand” signals for the chain’s block space. [13]
This matters because SOL is both an asset and a utility token. When usage cools, “organic” demand can soften—forcing price to lean more heavily on macro flows (BTC direction, ETFs, risk sentiment).
4) A bullish counterpoint: network resilience and institutional adoption headlines
Two institutional-adoption narratives continue to provide long-term support to the Solana story—even when the chart looks tired.
Visa + USDC settlement over Solana: Visa announced the U.S. launch of USDC settlement for institutions, stating that initial banking participants (including Cross River and Lead Bank) have started settling in USDC over the Solana blockchain, with broader availability planned through 2026. [14]
Cross River’s release frames this as bringing “USDC settlement over the Solana blockchain into a production environment” for enterprise payment flows—another signal that Solana is being treated as financial infrastructure, not just a retail trading vehicle. [15]
J.P. Morgan tokenization on Solana: Reuters also reported earlier this month that J.P. Morgan arranged a $50 million commercial paper issuance on Solana for Galaxy Digital, with Coinbase and Franklin Templeton participating, and with USDC used for issuance/redemption proceeds—explicitly pointing to Solana’s speed and low costs as part of the appeal. [16]
DDoS “stress test” headlines: A Dec. 18 report from FastNetMon discusses Solana’s statements that it sustained a multi-terabit DDoS attack peaking near 6 Tbps without reported downtime, attributing resilience to mechanisms like stake-weighted QoS and local fee markets (FastNetMon notes it cannot independently verify details and is reporting based on public statements). [17]
These are not necessarily today-trading catalysts, but they shape the longer-horizon narrative many investors use to justify buying dips.
SOL technical analysis today: support, resistance, and momentum signals
SOL’s chart messaging on Dec. 18 is mixed: short-term indicators are improving, while higher-timeframe structure still looks heavy.
Investing.com: short-term strength vs longer-term weakness
Investing.com’s SOL/USD technical page shows short timeframes leaning bullish while daily/weekly signals lean bearish. At the time-stamp shown (Dec. 18, 2025), it lists hourly “Strong Buy” but daily/weekly “Strong Sell.” [18]
It also shows:
- RSI(14) near 59 (a “Buy” reading on that table),
- StochRSI flagged “Overbought,”
- and moving averages where shorter MAs trend supportive but longer MAs (100/200) lean bearish—typical of a market attempting a bounce inside a broader downtrend. [19]
NewsBTC: the $120 line and the $131–$132 ceiling
NewsBTC’s short-term technical write-up highlights a familiar structure:
- SOL slipped after failing to hold above $132
- A recent low around $121
- Key downside defenses cited near $122 and $120
- Resistance around $131, with a more important zone near $132
- If bulls can close above $132, upside targets mentioned include $140 and $145 [20]
Cointelegraph’s bearish pattern: the “bear pennant” risk
Cointelegraph’s analysis adds a more bearish scenario: it describes a bear pennant pattern with a measured target near $86, while also noting potential support near the 200-week EMA around $118. [21]
This sets up a clean technical map: bulls want to defend the low-$120s (especially ~$118–$120), while bears want a convincing break below that zone.
Solana price forecast: scenarios for the next move (and what could invalidate them)
Forecasting crypto is basically forecasting human emotion in a trench coat—but you can structure it with scenarios and invalidation levels.
Scenario A: Base case — consolidation in the $120s with volatile swings
If SOL holds above the $118–$122 region, the market may continue chopping between support and the first meaningful resistance bands.
What would support this scenario:
- Continued spot ETF inflows (even modest ones),
- BTC stabilization,
- No further acceleration in the decline of Solana activity metrics.
Key levels traders are watching:
Scenario B: Bear case — breakdown below $120 opens $110/$100, with $86 as a technical “measured” target
If SOL loses $120 decisively, the market may interpret it as a failed base and reprice toward psychological levels (like $110 and $100) and deeper pattern targets.
Cointelegraph frames $86 as the bear pennant projection, and it also cites commentary that SOL could trade in the $90–$100 band if bearish control strengthens. [24]
This scenario tends to be accelerated by:
- Another leg lower in BTC,
- Risk-off macro surprises,
- Clear evidence that Solana’s activity slump is worsening (fees/addresses/TVL).
Scenario C: Bull case — reclaiming $132 turns sentiment and targets $140–$145
A bullish reversal setup would likely require:
- SOL reclaiming $132 and holding above it,
- a return of buyers on higher timeframes (not just intraday bounces),
- supportive headlines such as strong ETF demand or improving on-chain activity.
NewsBTC explicitly points to a close above $132 as a trigger that could open a push toward $140 and $145. [25]
Longer-term SOL outlook: 2026 predictions are bullish, but conditional
While the short-term forecast is dominated by technical levels and on-chain cooling, the 2026 outlook being circulated today is notably more optimistic—with big asterisks.
Bitwise: new all-time highs in 2026—if regulation clears the runway
Bitwise’s published “10 Crypto Predictions for 2026” includes a direct Solana call: it predicts Ethereum and Solana will set new all-time highs if the CLARITY Act passes, and it argues ETFs will buy more than 100% of new supply for BTC, ETH, and SOL. [26]
Benzinga’s Dec. 18 coverage echoes Bitwise’s view that institutional adoption and ETF flows are becoming more powerful drivers than the traditional four-year crypto cycle, highlighting Bitwise’s “ETF-palooza” idea and the expectation of more ETF product launches. [27]
Crypto.news similarly summarizes Bitwise’s thesis: ETF-driven flows and regulatory shifts could help push BTC/ETH/SOL to new highs by 2026—again emphasizing the role of market structure legislation. [28]
The counterweight: ETF crowding could trigger product closures
The same environment that enables a wave of ETFs can also create a brutal Darwinian phase: too many funds, too little sustained demand.
Stocktwits’ Dec. 18 report highlights the warning that many crypto ETPs could face closure in 2026–27 as competition intensifies and weaker products fail to gather assets. [29]
Key risks that could swing SOL’s forecast quickly
A practical SOL forecast isn’t just “up/down”—it’s “what would change my mind?”
Here are the main swing factors visible in today’s reporting:
- On-chain demand trend: TVL, fees, and active addresses have been weakening in recent data; a reversal would strengthen the bull case, while further erosion strengthens the bear case. [30]
- ETF flow persistence: modest inflows can support price on dips; sustained outflows can do the opposite. [31]
- Regulatory timeline risk: Reuters underscores that market structure legislation is stalled, and delays can keep institutions cautious. [32]
- Macro volatility: crypto remains highly sensitive to broader risk sentiment (and BTC’s direction often pulls SOL with it). [33]
- Network/infrastructure headlines: resilience narratives (like Solana’s DDoS “stress test”) help the long-term story, but markets will punish any perception of instability. [34]
Bottom line: Solana’s forecast hinges on $120 support and whether fundamentals re-ignite
On Dec. 18, 2025, Solana is trading near $126, and the market is trying to decide whether this is:
- a base in the low-$120s before a recovery toward the $130s and $140s, or
- a pause before another leg down if support breaks and on-chain weakness persists.
In the near term, $120–$122 is the line most traders are treating as the “must-hold” zone, while $131–$132 is the ceiling bulls need to reclaim to shift the tone from relief rallies to trend reversal talk. [35]
And looming over everything: the bigger, slower forces—ETFs, payments integration, tokenization, and regulation—that can either turn SOL into a mainstream institutional asset… or keep it trapped in volatility purgatory a while longer. [36]
References
1. www.coingecko.com, 2. www.coingecko.com, 3. www.coingecko.com, 4. www.coingecko.com, 5. www.coingecko.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.coingecko.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. stocktwits.com, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. usa.visa.com, 15. www.crossriver.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. fastnetmon.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.newsbtc.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. www.newsbtc.com, 23. www.newsbtc.com, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. www.newsbtc.com, 26. bitwiseinvestments.com, 27. www.benzinga.com, 28. crypto.news, 29. stocktwits.com, 30. www.tradingview.com, 31. stocktwits.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.tradingview.com, 34. fastnetmon.com, 35. www.newsbtc.com, 36. usa.visa.com
